It hasn’t exactly been the pyrotechnic start to his rookie campaign for which Caleb Williams and all Chicago Bears fans had been hoping. The Bears are 1-1 through two weeks, so it’s not all bad—especially big-picture.
But anyone who watched the Bears’ loss to the Texans on Sunday Night Football—so, like, everyone—has some bonafide game tape that’s been concerning. Williams was absolutely obliterated behind what the Bears are quite glibly calling their “offensive line.” I would say Caleb might take issue with giving the dudes in front of him that much credit in title. The poor rookie was walloped all night long, and it got to the point where it was a bit hard to watch. He had no time, no shot.
Williams did threw a few great balls, including a high-point zipper into the end zone. A jumping and twisting and hobbled Rome Odunze couldn’t bring down. Williams’s final line was an ugly 174 yards, zero passing TDs, and two interceptions.
For Williams drafters and everyone else counting: that’s two fantasy football stinkers to begin his career. This week, he plays the Indianapolis Colts. So—should you roll him out, or look elsewhere on Sunday?
Caleb Williams Week 3 Start/Sit Analysis
On the surface, this seems like a fairly decent matchup. The Colts D/ST has only 5.0 total fantasy points this year. They gave up a ton of points and yards to C.J. Stroud and the Texans in Week 1, and couldn’t prevent the Malik-Willis-led Packers from marching up and down the field, either. Though, in that game, they only allowed three points. On the season, the Colts have allowed 416 passing yards.
But Caleb Williams is already weary. Nothing’s gelling yet for Chicago’s offense, especially the offensive line. Odunze probably would have come down with a touchdown pass if not for playing through pain; Keenan Allen spends more time on the sidelines these days; D.J. Moore can’t seem to deal with the exasperation of needing to go through another quarterback transition. The terrible offensive line has created no room for the running game, and the Bears seem convinced that having Captain Caleb is the way to go.
Now, if you believe that the Colts defense is as susceptible to the pass as their current statistics suggest, go ahead and start Williams. But I’m bullish on the Colts’ unit being on the rise, despite the multi-week injury to DT DeForest Buckner. Here’s a stat I love about the Colts D/ST from my D/ST Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Week 3 Picks (in case you’re looking for a good streamer!):
Even with such paltry fantasy points, the Colts still rank 15th in the league in blitzes sent (19) and third in blitz percentage (33.9%). If this unit regresses in the slightest positive direction against the Bears, they’ll have a great week. Blitzes will get home through that weak Bears offensive line. Kwity Paye will live in Caleb Williams’s face.
We all remember how brutally the Texans blitzed Williams on Sunday Night Football, and how often he was getting flatly bludgeoned. I’m not starting him against a team already ranked third in blitz percentage. No thank you.
This Colts unit is too good, and the Bears’ offensive line has just inspired zero confidence that Caleb Williams will have any time to let plays develop and settle into a rhythm. He’s a hard sit for me.
Verdict: Sit. Sit him on your bench and chain him there for at least this week, for heavens’ sake—maybe next, too.
(But don’t drop him. Wait and see. Remember—C.J. Stroud didn’t really come online until Week 4 of the 2023 season. Patience.)
Here are a few names I’m starting over Williams this week in leagues where I own him:
- Justin Fields (vs. LAC) – Risky, but I’ll take the potential rushing upside that we know Caleb won’t generate on Sunday. I don’t think this Chargers unit is as good as it’s played so far.
- Derek Carr (vs. PHI) – Let’s ride the wave until it crashes, shall we? Philly’s defense might still be reeling from Monday Night Football’s letdown.
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