There are less than two weeks remaining in the MLB regular season. With teams vying to clinch their spot in the playoffs, I’ll give you some of my favorite MLB bets for tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Phillies moneyline -135
The Phillies were the first time to reach 90 wins in MLB, as they continue toward the path of a division title. They’re one of my favorite MLB bets tonight on the moneyline against the Brewers and Frankie Montas. Zack Wheeler will be taking the hill for the Phillies and he’s been fantastic in the second-half. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since July 29th, when the Yankees lit him up for seven. Since then, Wheeler has thrown 51 innings and has a 1.76 ERA with a 2.43 FIP and a 10.6 K/9.
Montas throws essentially fastballs, albeit different variations. In his arsenal he has a four seam, a sinker, cutter and splitter. Those pitches account for 88% of what he throws. The Phillies hit these pitches well, very well. Tonight’s projected lineup against those pitches have a .347 wOBA against the four seam, a .395 vs. sinker, .434 against the cutter and only a .194 against the splitter. Fortunately for the Phillies, Montas throws the splitter at the lowest rate, doing so only 12% of the time.
With how good Wheeler has pitched, I’ll happily back him and the Phillies at -135 tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Game total over 11 runs -118
Coors Field always has these inflated game totals but tonight, I’m still liking the over. Overall, the under has hit more often at Coors Field this season, doing so 53% of the time. But, when I see Jordan Montgomery against Ryan Feltner, I’m taking the over.
The Diamondbacks are a very good hitting club against righties. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .351 wOBA with a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. It’s hard to find a hitter that doesn’t have good numbers from top the bottom. That’s going to be tough for Feltner, who struggles against both sides of the plate, particularly lefties. The D-Backs will likely have six lefties in the lineup, including four of their first five hitters. With no real easy outs, Feltner could be in major trouble early.
On the other side, Montgomery has been a massive disappointment for the D-Backs. He faced the Rockies earlier this season, in Arizona, and allowed three runs through six innings. He’s going to see a ton of right-handed bats in this Rockies lineup, which has been his trouble spot. Righties have tagged him for a .372 wOBA with a 46% hard-hit rate. I’m not expecting much out of either starter tonight, which has me on the over in this game.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
The Pick: Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases +105
Alonso to go over 1.5 bases against a lefty who throws a lot of fastballs is on me betting menu tonight. Mitchell Parker won us some money the other night against the Marlins but now, it’s time to go against him. He’s a contact pitcher who doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts and is throwing his fastball 44% of the time. Alonso has been doing well in this situation, boasting a .474 wOBA with a .488 ISO against fastballs from a lefty this season. I like the Mets overall in this game, after they already touched Parker up for five runs through six innings back in early July. If you want a player prop at plus money, I think Alonso is your guy.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
