Week 3: Can we now see the forest for the trees? The hope is that things get a little easier. Shoutout to the one and only Biz Markie. While the sample size is small, we now have two games worth of data to blend into a smoothie. Will it make us famous? Causing the paparazzi to beg and plead for our identity? That I do not foresee.
The only thing I can guarantee is that we will be tilting over a flag thrown by a referee. Injuries have decimated the landscape. Someone figure out how to balance the chi because the lack of stars makes the NFL less than marquee. We need someone to protect them like McAfee.
Anyways, I will try my best to wade through the potpourri of information so that one of us may blink, then post pics on The Gram lounging on a beach in Waikiki.
There are 12 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with an O/U of at least 45: PHI/NO (49.5), HOU/MIN (45), DET/ARI (52.5) and BAL/DAL (49). There are four games with a total of 40 or below: NYG/CLE (38.5), DEN/TB (40), LAC/PIT (35.5) and GB/TEN (36.5).
There is no double-digit spread favorite. The biggest favorites are SF -7 over LAR and TB -7 over DEN. There are seven games within a field goal: PIT -2 over LAC, NO -2.5 over PHI, HOU -2.5 over MIN, TEN -3 over GB, IND -1 over CHI, DET -2.5 over AR and BAL -1 over DAL. There are four home dogs: MIN, LAR, ARI and DAL.
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Quarterback
Stud
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions ($6,900): I don’t expect Murray to have a passer rating of 158.3 in this one, as the Detroit Lions defense is much stouter than the Los Angeles Rams. That said, I do expect Murray to score fantasy goodies because running the ball will likely be difficult, and this game has the highest total on the slate.
Through two games this season, the Lions’ run defense has allowed 3.3 yards per carry and a 41.3% success rate. The Lions offense is implied for 27.75 points, the second-highest team total on the slate, so the Cardinals will likely have to keep pace. And that will be through Murray, both through the air and on the ground.
Murray has thrown for 428 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 116 yards this season. His rushing production provides a high floor while allowing him to access 30 FPTS games. This game environment could provide an opportunity for a ceiling game.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($7,500), Dak Prescott ($6,600), Jared Goff ($6,500)
Value
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($5,800) – Carr has scored 22.82 and 21.3 FPTS in his first two games of the season. Carolina looks to be one of the worst teams in the league, so not sure we can take too much from that performance. In Week 2, Carr torched a Dallas Cowboys team that has been a dominant defense at times.
Much of the credit goes to the new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who was the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers last season, the Denver Broncos passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2022 and the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings in 2021. Oh, and he’s also the son of long-time coach and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, so he knows a little something about exploiting NFL defenses.
According to ESPN Stats, the Saints are using pre-snap motion 41% of the time so far this season, compared to only 14% last season.
Per Sports Info Solutions, teams averaged 7.1 yards per attempt last season when utilizing pre-snap motion. Without motion, that number dropped down to 6.6. Teams averaged 5.75 yards per play compared to 5.62. Nine of the 11 teams that made the playoffs last season finished above average in utilizing pre-snap motion.
We all know Carr struggles when pressured. Through two games this season, he’s been pressured on 19.2% of dropbacks, fourth-best in the league. The Eagles have the seventh-lowest pressure rate at 8.8% and are middle-of-the-pack in passing success rate.
Other Options – Brock Purdy ($6,000), Geno Smith ($5,600)
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Running Back
Stud
Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams ($6,200) – In two starts filling in for Christian McCaffrey, Mason has carried the rock 28 and 20 times. He’s dominated the running back snaps, as Isaac Guerendo has received a total of four snaps. Mason has produced 25.2 and 20.4 FPTS and has a very good chance of replicating the feat this week.
No Deebo Samuel means one less person to rush the ball. In addition, the Rams have been getting gashed on the ground through two games this season. They allow 5.5 yards per carry and a league-leading 57.7% rushing success rate. 1+1=2.
Other Options – Alvin Kamara ($7,500), De’Von Achane ($7,000), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800), Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Derrick Henry ($6,500), David Montgomery ($6,100)
Value
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers ($5,500) – White was a polarizing player heading into the season. Some looked at the successful four-game stretch at the end of last season and the lack of competition on the depth chart as signs of a potential breakout. Others viewed him as a “dead-zone” running back, who was being drafted due to volume but wasn’t #good.
Well, the doubters are on top of the hill, smiling from ear to ear. White has scored 5.6 and 6.8 FPTS to start the season and was outsnapped, 36 to 23 in Week 1.
There are glimmers of optimism, though. In Week 2, he received 40 snaps compared to only 14 for Alexander Mattison. Head coach Antonio Pierce has been vocal about wanting to get White going and feeding him 20 carries per game. In addition, Luke Getsy is the new offensive coordinator for the Raiders, so this may be an early-season adjustment period.
Regardless, the matchup and situation is ripe for White to return to prominence. The Raiders are at home and favored by 5.5 points. The Panthers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry and a 44.4% rushing success rate.
Other Options – Zach Charbonnet ($6,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($6,300) – The Saints have cruised to 47-10 and 44-19 victories to open the season. I expect this game to be much closer and competitive. DK Sportsbook currently has the Saints favored by 2.5 points at home with a total of 49.5, so points are expected to be scored.
Rashid Shaheed has been the star of the wide receiver corps due to the long touchdowns he’s scored, but Olave still leads the team in snaps and received the most targets in Week 2. I like Carr this week, especially since the Saints have protected him well.
The Eagles have had difficulty generating pressure and utilizing pre-snap motion. In a tight affair, I like Olave to get peppered with targets. Last season, he had six games with double-digit targets, with a high of 15.
Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) if healthy, Nico Collins ($7,300), Mike Evans ($7,200), DeVonta Smith ($6,900), Zay Flowers ($6,800), Chris Godwin ($6,500), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200)
Value
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals ($5,800) – This game has the highest total on the slate, and it could be a back-and-forth affair. Through two games, Williams has received nine and 11 targets with an average of 13.1 yards per target.
With 4.25 40 speed, Williams is a threat to take one to the house on any given play. But the beauty with Williams is that the route tree has been diverse, so the floor has been relatively high. High floor with slate-breaking upside in a game with the highest total at sub-$6K? Me likey! But be cognizant of the projected ownership numbers.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,400), Rashid Shaheed ($5,300), Tyler Lockett ($5,100), Diontae Johnson ($4,900), Jordan Whittington ($4,200)
Tight End
Stud
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers ($5,400) – Bowers has played in 68% of the snaps in each of the first two games but has dominated the targets at the tight end position. He’s received eight and nine targets, while Michael Mayer got three and one.
There’s a reason why the Raiders selected Bowers with the 13th overall pick in the 2024 draft. Targets are earned, and he’s certainly earned them. He should continue getting fed, especially since the Raiders should have their way this week against the Panthers.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($6,200), George Kittle ($5,700)
Value
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens ($4,500) – Ferguson missed Week 2 due to an MCL sprain and bone bruise, but he was reportedly very close to playing. It sounds like he should be good for Week 3. If so, he should be an important part of the passing attack against the Ravens, who have allowed 16 receptions on 18 targets for 180 yards to tight ends through two weeks.
Ferguson received five targets in Week 1. If Ferguson cannot go, Luke Schoonmaker ($3,300) would be a viable option, as he garnered six targets last week.
Other Options – Jonnu Smith ($3,400), Luke Schoonmaker ($3,300) if Ferguson is out
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Browns D/ST vs. New York Giants ($3,800) – Daniel Jones. End of analysis.
Fine, the Browns are allowing the third-lowest passing success rate and lowest completion percentage. The unit is third in sacks with seven and is third in quarterback pressure rate.
Jones looked competent against a porous Commanders defense in Week 2. It’s highly likely that we see the Jones that threw two interceptions and got sacked five times in Week 1, allowing the Vikings D/ST to put up 22 FPTS.
Other Options – Raiders D/ST ($3,700), Chargers D/ST ($3,600), 49ers D/ST ($3,500), Packers D/ST ($3,300)
Value
Bears D/ST at Indianapolis Colts ($2,600) – Anthony Richardson will be a great quarterback, but he was raw coming in and will only be playing his seventh professional game. Through two games this season, he’s completed 49.1% of his passes and thrown four interceptions.
The Bears have one of the best pass defenses in the league. The unit is second in quarterback pressure rate and third in passing success rate.
Other Options – Buccaneers D/ST ($3,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
