There were some big moves in the college football futures market after Week 3. Here is a look at the updated picture at DraftKings Sportsbook.
There were no major upsets in college football in Week 3. In fact, the only ranked team that lost all weekend lost to another ranked team. However, a couple of top favorites improved their playoff positioning, and there was a major shift in the Heisman market due to an injury to a top contender.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Quinn Ewers: +600 to +2000 to win the Heisman
Arch Manning: +15000 to +2000 to win the Heisman
This was the most interesting move of the week in the futures market. Quinn Ewers moved all the way up the board and became the Heisman favorite after beating Michigan in Week 2. However, last week against UTSA, Ewers got hurt and had to leave the game. Arch Manning stepped in and put on a show, scoring five touchdowns for the Longhorns. UTSA isn’t top-tier competition by any means, but it was still a great performance by Manning.
Ewers is expected to miss at least their next game against ULM and potentially another game after that. Three weeks from now, Texas has their bye week before facing Oklahoma, so that could be the best time for Ewers to return. Ewers will likely take his job back whenever he is healthy, but if he misses a couple of weeks, he will be behind the eight ball statistically, making it tough to win the award.
Verdict: Sell and Sell- Texas is a real national title contender, but this Ewers injury is likely the end of his Heisman campaign. Between missing most of this UTSA game and the ULM game, he will miss out on some major stat-padding opportunities. If he misses another game after that, he will almost definitely be too far behind. The Arch Manning hype is fun, but this is Quinn Ewers’ team, and he will take it back as soon as he is healthy. Manning could be a Heisman front-runner next season, but not now.
Arizona: +1200 to +2200 to win the Big 12
The Wildcats were the only ranked team to lose in Week 3. They were beaten pretty handily by Kansas State, and their Big 12 odds took a big hit. Not only was it a big loss because they lost to a competitor in the conference, but their performance was so bad that it did not inspire any hope that they could compete with the other top team in the conference either. This team had a lot of buzz in the offseason because of how they finished last season. However, the departure of head coach Jedd Fisch looks to have had a serious impact on the team, as they are nowhere near as good as they were last season.
Verdict: Sell- It is hard to imagine Arizona beating any top teams in the Big 12 the way they are playing now. Eeven at this much bigger number, I won’t be investing in Arizona.
Alabama: -175 to -350 to make the playoff
Jalen Milroe: +1200 to +700 to win the Heisman
Alabama went on the road to Wisconsin in a game that many people thought could be a tough test for the Crimson Tide. Jalen Milroe and his team made a statement by dominating the Badgers on both sides of the ball to win the game 42-10. Alabama secured a signature non-conference win to bolster their playoff resume so their odds jumped significantly. Jalen Milroe also had a great game, and that shot him up the Heisman odds board. He is now tied with Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, who has the second-best odds of winning the award.
Verdict: Wait to Buy- This Alabama team looked great last week. They might not win the SEC or quite have what it takes to beat Georgia or Ohio State, but they are certainly a playoff team. However, their next game is against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia will be favored to win that game, and if they do win, Alabama’s playoff odds will drop back down, and Milroe’s Heisman odds likely will as well. Once that happens, it will be a good time to buy because Alabama might not lose again after that game.
Tennessee: +2500 to +1400 to win the National Championship
Tennessee made a huge jump in the National Championship odds conversation. They beat Kent State 71-0 last week and now have won their first three games by a combined score of 191-13. The market is buying into the hype on this team led by their young quarterback, Nico Iamaleava. Tennessee has by far its toughest test of the season and its first conference game this weekend against Oklahoma. People might buy Tennessee before these odds move even further if they take care of business against the Sooners.
Verdict: Sell- This Tennessee team is really good. I bet they would make the College Football Playoff before the season started. However, I think this number has gone too far for them to win the National Championship. They still have not played a really competitive team, so there are still some unknowns. We will learn a lot more after they play Oklahoma this weekend and can reassess at that point.
Cam Ward: +850 to +550 to win the Heisman
In the absence of Quinn Ewers, Miami’s Cam Ward made the jump to Heisman favorite. Ward leads college football with 11 passing touchdowns and is second in the country in passing yards. He also already has a signature performance against Florida, and Miami looks like a real contender. If Ward stays healthy, he will keep putting up these big numbers and remain in the mix at the top of this list.
Verdict: Buy- Cam Ward was my preseason Heisman pick when his odds were +2200. The Cam Ward train isn’t stopping anytime soon, so it’s not too late to get on board. Ward has the perfect balance of a manageable schedule where he can put up a lot of numbers and a couple of big games where he can show what he is capable of on the national stage. This is a great recipe to win the Heisman Trophy.
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