New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is at it again. He’s the hands-down, it-ain’t-close, overall RB1 in PPR and even in standard scoring. Since entering the league in 2017 out of the University of Tennessee, Kamara has been fantasy football gold.
He finished as the PPR RB3 in 2017 and followed that up with RB4, RB9, RB1, RB8, RB16 and RB11 finishes. Even with some slight “down years” recently, it’s far from doom and gloom. After all, Kamara was the RB3 last year on a points-per-game basis.
So, given his production, history and longevity, why were we selling Kamara short before the season?
Oh, that’s right. Nobody predicted the Saints would score 91 points through two games, averaging 45.5 points per game. That’s 22 more points than the next-best team, the Arizona Cardinals. Will it last? Surely not. However, trading away Kamara is the wrong kind of speculation.
You Play to Win the Game
It’s a simple game—fantasy football, that is—even for those who don’t watch much football. Team managers want to score the most points, so they should pick the players scoring the most points. Therefore, you should follow the points. And if you’re looking for help at running back, read up on our Week 3 waiver wire pickups.
So, what sense would it make to trade away a high-performing player?
Well, maybe that player doesn’t have a proven track record. That’s not true of Kamara.
Well, maybe another team manager would be willing to overpay and give up way too much for Kamara. It’s possible. But this is the only exception to why it would make sense to trade Kamara. Another team would need to value him as the fantasy football RB1 and pay that steep price and offer worthwhile player(s) in return. That seems unlikely.
Well, maybe you can hope that it works out to be the right move. That’s probably the best-case scenario, and it’s not worth the risk.
Derek Carr is playing his best football. We haven’t seen him maintain this level after all these years. That said, the Saints’ offensive line is really overperforming.
All those sacks that came so easily for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1 vs. the Browns nearly vanished in Week 2 against the Saints. Offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga, the Saints’ first-round choice in the 2024 NFL Draft, looks like the real deal, and the rest of the line has played very well. That success is showing up throughout the offense.
The Reasons to Retain Alvin Kamara
Running back is a fickle position. One minute, you’re 2023 Christian McCaffrey, and the next, you’re 2024 Christian McCaffrey. Sure, other players at other positions get injured, but between bye weeks, injuries and the fluctuations in scoring, the position is best served with an overabundance of options. Rather than trying to add value in a trade, stay the course with what’s working and look to augment your roster on the waiver wire.
Through two weeks, Kamara is averaging just shy of two-thirds of the offensive snaps and that would be more if the Saints weren’t blowing teams out. Kamara has the third-highest target share (21.1%) among running backs and the second-most yards per reception (13.1 avg).
In the offseason, my biggest concern with Kamara had a lot to do with what I felt was a lack of burst and top-end speed last year. Perhaps Kamara was played with injuries because he’s showing a much better agility and knack for making guys miss.
He already has 14 first downs, which, for context, is seven per game, a rate even better than in his prime years early in his career. While all this overachievement can elicit thoughts of selling high, the running back position just isn’t the place to play around.
As noted, Kamara is far and away the best-performing back right now, with 66 PPR FPTS. Next on the list is De’Von Achane at 52.5, and there’s another scoring drop down to No. 3, J.K. Dobbins, at 43 FPTS. Kamara is twice as good as a low RB1. While these scores tend to even out over the year, there’s just no way to recover all that fantasy value in a trade. Only fantasy teams with incredible running back depth should consider selling high on Kamara.
I welcome fantasy football managers to always talk to their league mates. There is no harm in testing the waters and seeing if there are interested parties. If another team wants to offer the moon for Kamara, let them so you can smash the accept trade button!
Now, if it’s a dynasty league, that’s another conversation. For a dynasty rebuild, Kamara makes perfect sense as a sell-high candidate.
For redraft, for the reasons listed above, it would be a mistake to sell high on Kamara.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mattkdelima) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.