We’re down to the final game in Week 2, as the Falcons visit the Eagles on Monday Night Football. While money has come piling in on the Eagles on DraftKings Sportsbook, we have seen the spread shrink in this game. Part of that movement is also related to the absence of A.J. Brown, who will sit this one out with a hamstring injury. While I’m passing on a side in the game, I do think this one sets up nicely for a couple of player props.
DeVonta Smith OVER 5.5 Receptions (-140)
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Smith played on every single offensive snap for the Eagles in the Week 1 victory over the Packers. So with Brown off the field, I think we can count on a heavy dose of Smitty once again. Smith hauled in seven of his eight targets in the opener, good for 84 yards and a long reception of 25 yards. That was with Brown soaking up 10 targets against Green Bay, so while some production will be spread around Philly’s offense, I expect Smith to be the focal point of the extra volume.
We have other pass catchers like Jahan Dotson (props set at 2.5 receptions and 28.5 yards) and Dallas Goedert (4.5 receptions and 43.5 yards) that should see a slight uptick, but neither can fill in for Brown. Of course, the Eagles would be silly not to also feature more of Saquon Barkley after his three-touchdown debut with the team. But Smith should be in position to see more targets sent his way, and potentially in a variety of ways.
Brown has played in all 35 regular season games since being acquired by the Eagles, but he did miss the Wild Card Game in Tampa Bay last season. Smith was the focus of Jalen Hurts all night, absorbing 12 targets, and turning them into eight grabs for 148 yards. I’m expecting another 10-12 targets in this one for Smith, which the talented receiver should be able to turn into at least six receptions.
Bijan Robinson OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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After a rookie season filled with inconsistencies, Robinson clearly assumed the workhorse role in Atlanta’s backfield in Week 1. I’m banking on that not being a mirage. Robinson played on 89% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps against the Steelers, and handled 18 of the 21 carries that were handled by Falcon running backs.
Robinson was able to turn those 18 carries into just 68 yards, although he did catch all five of his targets for another 43 receiving yards. In this matchup, I think it’s important for the Falcons to get Robinson going on the ground. Atlanta’s offense was completely predictable in Week 1, mostly due to Kirk Cousins being immobile. Pittsburgh was able to tell if the Falcons were passing or running prior to every play — making it pretty tough on Robinson to break any big runs. I have to image that Atlanta’s coaching staff is smart enough to put forward a better effort to disguise plays in Week 2, particularly with the long week.
It also appears that Week 1 was a very tough matchup for Robinson. The Steelers went on their second road trip in as many weeks on Sunday and just held Denver running backs to a total of 39 rushing yards on 15 carries. Enter the Eagles, who surrendered a total of 163 rushing yards on 21 carries to Green Bay in their opener.
Bottom line is that Robinson had a lot working against him in Week 1, yet still found his way to 68 yards on the ground. I’m expecting a better scheme in a much better matchup in Week 2 to really open things for Robinson on Monday night in Philly.
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