We’re now in the thick of the NFL season, so I’ll forgive you if you’ve not been able to focus on baseball that much the past couple of weeks. In fact, that’s exactly why I’m here to write this article and help out.
Here are a couple of my favorite bets for tonight’s slate on the diamond.
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Mets -1.5 (+114)
There’s some obvious risk in betting the Mets to come through in what is essentially a must-win game in late September. They are, after all, the Mets. Still, putting aside history and Francisco Lindor’s nagging back ailment, there’s reasons for actual optimism on Monday night. The biggest one? The presence of Sean Manaea. The left-hander has been on a whole different level since a mid-season arm slot adjustment. To wit, in Manaea’s last nine starts, the veteran has pitched to a 2.64 ERA with a 3.03 FIP and a 31.5% strikeout rate. For the purposes of this bet, it’s also worth noting that New York is 8-1 in these contests.
This isn’t just about the Mets, though. It’s about the Nationals, too. There are some new faces in the team’s lineup, but Washington has struggled to hit left-handed pitching all season long. The Nationals rank 24th within the split in wRC+ (89), while the Nationals’ .120 ISO versus LHPs is the third-lowest mark in MLB.
Then there’s Jake Irvin. You can’t overstate how important Irvin has been for Washington in 2024, as the RHP leads the team in innings pitched (172.0) and has the lowest expected ERA of the club’s four qualified starters (4.21). However, Irvin has been floundering since mid-July, possessing a 6.41 ERA and a 5.73 FIP across his last 12 starts. Simply put: He’s been awful for the better part of two months.
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Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Reid Detmers Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
We need something to make this game watchable, right? Kidding. Sort of.
By this point, we all know about the White Sox and their quest to rack up the most losses in MLB history. As such, it should come as little surprise that the team has recently struggled to do much with the bats, with league-worst marks in both wRC+ (65) and ISO (.070) over the last 30 days. Chicago also sports an above-average 23.4% strikeout rate in that same span. This is, without question, the worst lineup in baseball.
Detmers will get the pleasure of facing the White Sox on Monday, as the left-hander continues his September revenge tour after being trapped in Triple-A for most of 2024. Detmers first two starts since his recall have been amazing, with the 25-year-old allowing four earned runs across 12.0 innings of work with 18 strikeouts. That 13.50 K/9 is the highest mark in the month for any pitcher with at least 10.0 innings thrown, while Detmers pairs that with a stunning 14.7% swinging strike rate. Don’t brush this off as small sample nonsense, either. Detmers owns a career 24.7% strikeout rate and he’s managed at least seven strikeouts in eight of his 14 starts with the Angels this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
