We are just one day away from the card that everyone has been waiting for! UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC hosted by Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada is taking place on Saturday night. “Suga” Sean O’Malley is putting his Undisputed Bantamweight Championship on the line against “The Machine” No. 1 Merab Dvalishvili. The co-main event will feature the third fight in the trilogy between Women’s Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso and the “Bullet” Valentina Shevchenko.
There will be 10 fights on this card. The UFC has announced that throughout the card, a movie will play inside the Sphere honoring the Mexico people on Mexican Independence Day. This is the UFC’s second time having an event on Mexican Independence Day. This weekend will be a yearly tradition for the company moving forward.
The prelims will begin on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET while the main card starts on PPV at 10 p.m. ET. Here are my best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 306 PPV taking place at Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Sean O’Malley to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-115)
O’Malley is -130 to defeat Dvalishvili on the money line on DraftKings Sportsbook, but there is a better bet that maximizes the value for this main event fight. Even though O’Malley is known for his highlight knockouts, he still has experience when the fight goes the distance. During his last three fights, Suga has won two of them by decision.
Picking O’Malley to win this fight by knockout (+150) is enticing but Merab has never been knocked out in his 10-year, 21-fight MMA career. Merab hasn’t lost a fight since his second fight in the UFC in 2018 when Ricky Simon submitted him. Still, O’Malley is a different caliber fighter than Merab’s previous opponents; he is one of the highest-level strikers in the sport and makes special fighters look ordinary often. Betting O’Malley to win this fight by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision is great value at -115 because it gives you an extra cushion without solely relying on a knockout finish.
Brian Ortega Moneyline (+160)
Ortega is being overlooked and forgotten about on this card. Everyone is on the Diego Lopes hype train – and rightfully so after four dominant performances in a row with three finishes. But let’s not forget about this veteran who has fought for two UFC championships while almost submitting former bantamweight king Alex Volkanovski in 2021. Ortega suffered a major injury and lost against Yair Rodriguez in July 2022, but got his revenge via submission in February 2024 in the third round.
Ortega is the No. 3 featherweight in the world right now and is on the cusp of another title opportunity if he can get past the up-and-coming Lopes. This matchup was originally slated to take place at UFC 303 but was rescheduled after T-City suffered an injury. Lopes has a three-inch height advantage but hasn’t faced this level of opponent yet. Some prospects are slowly built up to face ranked opponents, but not Lopes. He has been thrust right into the top of the bantamweight division.
Lopes last fought Dan Ige on short notice and Sodiq Yusuff. They are both talented fighters but Lopes is jumping up roughly 10 spots in the rankings to fight Ortega. Ortega has headlined five UFC events while fighting legends like Max Holloway, Volkanovski, Chan Sung Jung, Frankie Edgar, and Cub Swanson along the way. This has the Fight of the Night written all over it. Ortega has a clear path to victory by relentlessly trying to get the fight to the ground. The price tag at +160 on DraftKings Sportsbook is too steep until Lopes proves he is the real deal against a veteran.
Raul Rosas Jr. to Win by Submission (-185)
Rosas Jr. has won three of his four UFC fights by submission in the first or second round. The money line on Rosas to win this fight against Qileng Aori is -1000. In his young career, he is 9-1 with six wins coming by way of submission with two knockouts. Rosas has said he wants to continue to climb the ranks in the UFC quickly and to do that, a win needs to come impressively.
Rosas is in the first fight at Sphere and is in a great spot to pick up his fourth victory in the Octagon. His opponent, Qileng Aori, is 25-11 in his career and 3-3-1 in the UFC. Although he hasn’t been submitted since 2017, Rosas is always aggressive and won’t stop until he gets the finish. A better choice than taking Rosas on the money line is to bet him to win by submission as you get better value as it is -185.
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