The Undisputed Bantamweight Champion, “Suga” Sean O’Malley returns to the Octagon tomorrow to face arguably his toughest opponent thus far, No. 1 Merab Dvalishvili. In the Co-Main event, we have a rematch of the headliner from the first Noche UFC event in 2023 between Women’s Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko.
This event has been hyped up for months and built up to be one of the biggest UFC events in history. It takes place at the one-of-a-kind Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. The action starts with the prelims on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET with the main card airing on ESPN + PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Along with traditional sports betting and daily fantasy, you can now have more action than ever for UFC 306! Check out the new DraftKings program Pick6! Here are my six favorite picks for the UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC Pick6 slate.
Sean O’Malley Less Than 86.5 Significant Strikes
O’Malley is coming off of a five-round dominant performance against Marlon “Chito” Vera in March of this year. Suga had his most complete fight as it was his first fight in two-and-a-half years that went the distance. O’Malley had 230 significant strikes against Vera but because of his quick knockouts in the past, he has only had one fight with at least 80 significant strikes in the previous four.
The last time that an O’Malley fight went to the judges’ scorecards was against Petr Yan at UFC 280. In that contest, O’Malley totaled 84 significant strikes in a three-round contest. Suga hasn’t been to the fourth round in his mixed martial arts career up until this point. If O’Malley retains his title, he likely gets the job done in the first three rounds which would result in him having fewer than 86.5 significant strikes in this fight.
Merab Dvalishvili Less Than 11:30 Control Time
Dvalishvili possesses the power and fighting style to frustrate O’Malley in this fight. But during O’Malley’s career in the UFC, we have seen wrestlers and grapplers try and test him. They have been unable to get him to ground and control him for long periods. This is Merab’s second five-round main event fight. Although he has shown an ability to use his elite cardio to wear down opponents, it remains to be seen if he can consistently do it in a longer contest.
Against Henry Cejudo, Merab had over four minutes of control time. Against Petr Yan, he had six minutes of control time in the five rounder. Dvalishvili has the best chance to land takedowns against O’Malley of any of his opponents in the past. But the odds are not favorable for Merab to have more than 11:30 of control time at UFC 306.
Alexa Grasso More Than 85.5 Fantasy Points
Grasso has a tough test fighting future hall-of-famer Shevchenko for the third time on Saturday. In the first fight, Grasso submitted Shevchenko in the fourth round. The second fight in 2023 was a draw. The 31-year-old Grasso is the pride of Guadalajara, Mexico, and has become one of the best fighters in the UFC.
Grasso has a well-rounded style which includes elite striking with takedowns and submissions. Grasso has had at least 90 fantasy points in each of her past four fights. Taking Grasso to have more than 85.5 fantasy points against Shevchenko at UFC 306 is a no-brainer! In their first fight, Grasso had 90.7 points and followed it up with 94 points at the first Noche UFC event in 2023.
Valentina Shevchenko More Than 79.5 Fantasy Points
The “Bullet” is coming off a draw against Women’s Flyweight Champion Alexa Grasso in their second fight between each other. Shevchenko landed four fewer significant strikes than Grasso in their previous contest. Even though Grasso was slightly better on the feet, Shevchenko dominated when the fight went to the ground. Shevchenko had over eight minutes of control time while completing four out of seven takedown attempts.
Shevchenko’s last four fights have gone at least into the fourth round which is great for her fantasy production. The “Bullet” has been a fantasy-scoring machine lately. Shevchenko has scored over 90 fantasy points in four of her last five fights. In the first fight against Grasso, Shevchenko scored 80.5 points and followed it up with 91.3 during the second bout. If Shevchenko makes it a priority to take Grasso to the ground early and often in this fight, she has a great chance to score over 79.5 fantasy points.
Ronaldo Rodriguez More Than 38.5 Significant Strikes
The first fight of the main card features Mexico’s own, Ronaldo Rodriguez. He is 16-2 and had a first-round submission in his UFC debut in February. Rodriguez’s nickname is “Lazy Boy” and he is currently on a six-fight win streak while winning his last three contests by finish. He is the -155 favorite over the talented striker Ode Osbourne on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rodriguez only had 31 significant strikes in his first UFC fight but Osbourne will be a much tougher test than his previous opponent. Rodriguez comes out aggressive early in his fights but look for him to be a little more passive early on against a dangerous opponent like Osbourne. Although the sample size isn’t huge, this is a good time to capitalize on hitting over 38.5 significant strikes.
Raul Rosas Jr. More Than 105.5 Fantasy Points
19-year-old Mexican rising star Rosas Jr. opens up the show as the first fight on the prelims. After being 3-1 in the UFC as a teenager, it was surprising to see Rosas not be placed higher on the card. Every time he fights, he improves and continues to move his way up the bantamweight division. All three of his victories in the UFC have come by finish, most recently submitting Ricky Turcios in the second round in June.
Rosas is facing a 31-year-old in Qileng Aori who has seven fights in the UFC. Rosas has a two-inch height advantage (5-foot-9 vs. 5-foot-7) while having a smaller reach (69″ vs. 67″). Rosas has been an incredible addition to fantasy lineups, scoring at least 100 points in all three of his four contests in the UFC. Unless Rosas finishes Aori in the first few minutes of the first round, he is in a great position to score over 105.5 fantasy points.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2 to 6 players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing between 2-6 players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ryanwohl) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information
