It was already a bad night for the Miami Dolphins as they were in the process of getting routed by the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. Things turned for the worse when Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion with 4:35 remaining in the third quarter after running into Damar Hamlin on a scramble toward the goal line.
There are plenty of big-picture conversations to be had surrounding Tagovailoa’s NFL future. But the reality is the NFL season is set to continue and the Dolphins have to suit up for the remainder of the season. Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel spoke with the media for the first time and emphasized prioritizing his recovery over any football or big-picture talking points for the time being. That being said, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on Sunday that Tagovailoa has no plans to retire, but remains without a timetable for a return.
With all this in mind, let’s first dive into Tua’s injury history, then take a look at some expectations for the rest of the Dolphins team during Tagovailoa’s absence.
Dolphins Games Tagovailoa has Missed:
Tua Tagovailoa was selected by the Dolphins with the 5th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He played 10 games as a rookie and 13 in his second season before Brian Flores was fired. Mike McDaniel took over as the head coach in 2022 and made a significant change to his career arc. During this time, the Alabama quarterback has missed just four total games.
These occurred during the 2022 season and also were due to concussion issues. Tagovailoa suffered his first concussion in Week 4 against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. This struck controversy as the Dolphins’ standout had sustained an injury just four days earlier that was labeled as a back issue when it looked like he suffered a hit to the head. The process surrounding this led the NFL to change their concussion protocol and fire the neurologist who cleared Tagovailoa to return to play.
The second concussion of his NFL career occurred in Week 16 against the Green Bay Packers. Tagovailoa was injured and then returned to the game only to throw three interceptions. Tagovailoa was then diagnosed with a concussion following the game and shut down for the remainder of the season.
The former Alabama star suited up for all 17 games last year and led the NFL with 4624 yards passing.
Dolphins Numbers Without Tagovailoa
In the four games the Dolphins played without Tagovailoa in 2022, the team went 1-3 overall. They suffered a 40-17 loss to the Jets, a 24-16 loss to the Vikings, a 23-21 loss to the Patriots, and defeated the Jets 11-6 in the final game of the regular season. Tua also missed the opening-round playoff game against the Bills as he recovered from the head injury.
Across these five games without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins averaged 19.2 points, 323.8 yards, 223.8 passing yards, and 1.8 turnovers per game.
While McDaniel deserves credit for scheming his way to some offensive success, this is still a far cry from the Dolphins’ standard. In the 2022 season as a whole, Miami averaged 23.4 points (11th in NFL), 364.5 yards (6th), 265.4 passing yards, and 1.8 turnovers per game. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins then took another step forward last season producing 29.2 points (2nd), 401.3 yards (1st), 265.5 passing yards, and 2.3 turnovers per game.
Who is Skylar Thompson?
The Dolphins will turn the team over to backup quarterback Skylar Thompson unless they are set to bring in a quarterback outside the organization. After spending five years at Kansas State, Thompson was selected in the 7th round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He has spent the duration of his NFL career with the Dolphins thus far.
Thompson relieved Tagovailoa in Thursday’s game and completed eight of his 14 pass attempts for 80 yards in the loss. Thompson played in all four games that Tagovailoa missed last season, serving as the starter in two matchups but throwing at least 13 pass attempts in each game. In the season as a whole, he completed 60 of his 105 pass attempts for 534 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
The 27-year-old is more mobile than Tagovailoa and has a fairly strong arm. He is familiar with the Dolphins’ offense and Mike McDaniel has expressed a great deal of public confidence that Thompson will be successful as the team relies on the next-man-up mentality.
Impact on Other Dolphins Players
Miami has a star-studded lineup with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane each set to play roles in fantasy football lineups and player prop bets every week. While Tagovailoa has his flaws as a passer, he still has flashed the ability to elevate this group of skill players effectively.
There is more doubt about this with Skylar Thompson.
In the four regular-season games he played without Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill tallied 25 receptions for 302 receiving yards or 75.5 yards per game. Hill did not record a receiving touchdown in any of these four games but did record a rushing touchdown against the Patriots. He also had seven receptions on 15 targets for 69 receiving yards in the playoff game.
Jaylen Waddle has the best season of his career in 2022. He tallied 1356 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in the year and led the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception. Waddle tallied 17 receptions for 248 receiving yards or 62 yards per game in the four games with Thompson as the primary quarterback. This is a steep drop-off considering Waddle averaged 85.2 yards per game with Tagovailoa. The Alabama product also did not tally a touchdown during his time playing with Thompson. Waddle had three receptions for 44 yards in the playoff loss.
Raheem Mostert had his first breakout season in the 2022 season. He had some success without Tagovailoa including rushing for 113 yards in the first game that the quarterback missed. During the four regular season games that the Dolphins did not have their starter, Mostert tallied 262 rushing yards and two total touchdowns. He did not play in the team’s playoff matchup.
There is no doubt that the Dolphins will have to make some significant changes in their game plan while they wait for more news regarding their star quarterback. But there should be more hope that Mike McDaniel is capable of elevating this offense despite the injury. Miami will face off against the Seahawks, Titans, and Patriots in the next three weeks until they reach their bye week.
There has been plenty of line movement already on DraftKings Sportsbook following the Dolphins’ loss to the Bills and injury to Tagovailoa. The Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds went from +2000 to +4000, the odds to win the AFC went from +1100 to +1700, and the odds to win the AFC East went from +165 to +500.
In all cases, there are murky waters ahead for this Dolphins team. It will say a lot about them as a team if they can keep their head afloat, but the recent injury brings more questions than answers for the short and long-term direction of the franchise.
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