One of the great recent rivalries in the AFC resumes when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bengals (+6) vs. Chiefs o/u 47.5
Bengals Team Breakdown
The Bengals suffered the biggest upset loss of Week 1, losing to the Patriots at home. The offense struggled without Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase at less than 100%. There are also unconfirmed questions about how healthy Joe Burrow’s wrist is. However, Burrow claims he is healthy.
This is an offense in a bit of a transitional phase without Joe Mixon, who was their workhorse running back for seven seasons. The Bengals are now using a combination of Zack Moss and Chase Brown at running back.
In the Bengals’ defense, the Patriots have a very good defense and weren’t giving the Bengals an inch of space. As the Bengals figure things out with their new personnel and get Tee Higgins back, the team should improve as the season goes on. Higgins did not practice on Wednesday and there is doubt around him being able to play on Sunday. If he is good to go, it would be a massive boost for Cincinnati.
Chiefs Team Breakdown
The Chiefs looked like the same old Chiefs in Week 1. They beat a very good Ravens team by being great in all three phases. Mahomes played a good game and the Chiefs found a way to incorporate their rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who scored two touchdowns. Rashee Rice also showed he can be a true WR1 for the Chiefs, hauling in seven catches for over 100 yards.
Defensively, the Chiefs did a good job containing Derrick Henry on the ground, but couldn’t contain Lamar Jackson when he took off running. Luckily, against the Bengals, there is not much of a threat for the quarterback to beat you with his legs. That being said, Jackson did move the ball pretty efficiently through the air and found all different kinds of targets. That is a concern against Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Just like with Tee Higgins for the Bengals, the Chiefs have their own wide receiver injury issues. Hollywood Brown, who the Chiefs acquired in the offseason, is hitting the IR and will miss this game for the Chiefs. They were without him in Week 1 as well, but it certainly makes them easier to guard on the back end if Brown isn’t playing.
Pick and Prediction
There are a few trends worth noting when it comes to this matchup:
- Joe Burrow is 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS against the Chiefs in his career.
- Burrow is 10-3 ATS when on the road after a SU loss like he suffered last week.
- Patrick Mahomes is the best in the world when you just need him to cover- he is 24-8-1 ATS when a favorite of three points or less. However, as a favorite of more than three points, he is just 38-42-2 ATS.
Everybody is high on the Chiefs after their big win over the Ravens to open the season. Also, everybody is low on the Bengals after their loss to the Patriots. Typically when betting on the NFL, that is when you want to buy low on a team. The Bengals also got very unlucky in the game against the Patriots. The Bengals fumbled at the Patriots’ 1-yard line and dropped an interception in the end zone before a Patriots score. If the Bengals don’t fumble that ball and instead score a touchdown, they likely win the game against the Patriots. Also, if Isaiah Likely’s toe had been an inch further back the Ravens could have won that game against the Chiefs. Very fine margins determine a win and a loss in the NFL and if two plays had gone differently, we would be looking at both of these teams in a different light going into this game.
The Bengals are a much better team than they showed in Week 1 and they should compete with the Chiefs in this game. Bengals Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo has always schemed up great defenses against Patrick Mahomes, contributing to Burrow’s 3-1 record against the Chiefs. The Bengals’ defense should hang tough and Burrow will be able to move the ball through the air with solid efficiency so I am backing the Bengals to keep this within five points.
Best Bet: Bengals +6
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