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Let’s get into NFL picks worth considering from Week 2’s main slate, which features 10 games.
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Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sam Darnold
Passing Yards: 230.5
Darnold threw for 208 yards in Minnesota’s opener vs. the Giants on 19-for-24 passing. That’s in part the result of the Vikings making easy work of the Giants. There was less incentive to conduct too much work through the air in the 28-6 win.
But, Darnold was efficient and he still didn’t manage to put up big-time numbers against a much weaker defense than the one he’ll face in Week 2.
The Vikings will likely play catch-up throughout Sunday’s meeting with the 49ers. That could lead to more passing attempts. Still, his efficiency could easily take a dip.
The play: LESS
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Alvin Kamara
Rush + Rec Yards: 83.5
This is one of the plays that came through in Week 1, but we’re seeing a dip in the projected amount. Makes sense when looking at the Carolina defense Kamara just torched as opposed to the Dallas unit he’s set to face.
But even with the embarrassing performance Cleveland dealt with under center, Jerome Ford was able to have a productive day vs. the Cowboys in Week 1. He logged 69 Rush + Rec Yards on 18 touches. Of course, that’s 15 yards short of where we need Kamara to be, but the New Orleans RB dealing with a more competent QB, which could be the difference in this play on its own.
The play: MORE
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
Derek Carr
Passing Yards: 218.5
For everything said about Kamara, Carr is in for a much tougher battle than Week 1. Even with the Saints dismantling Carolina, Carr only had 200 passing yards. Sure, Carr came out early and the Saints didn’t even need him to sling it much before he was able to rest. But even with his efficient 19-for-23 day against that pitiful defense, he didn’t get to 200 yards until his final attempt — a 22-yard Foster Moreau reception early in the fourth quarter.
The play: LESS
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Aaron Rodgers
Passing Touchdowns: 1.5
Rodgers faced a difficult test in his first regular season game back since his injury. The Titans faced a rookie QB — albeit the No. 1 overall pick. Both sides of this play are encountering a much different challenge than the ones they saw in Week 1.
Also, in both 2021 and 2022, Rodgers threw for zero touchdowns in Week 1 then logged multiple passing TDs in in Week 2. A lot has changed for him since then, but the point is this isn’t uncharted territory for Rodgers.
The play: MORE
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receiving Yards: 25.5
When the Lions faced Tampa in the playoffs, Gibbs logged 40 receiving yards on four receptions. He also had four receptions in Detroit’s opener vs. the Rams, finishing with 45 yards. Gibbs won’t do that every game, but those are very encouraging signs going into Week 2.
Especially when you look at what Washington’s running backs did in Week 1. Austin Ekeler logged 52 receiving yards on four receptions. Brian Robinson Jr. had 49 receiving yards on three catches.
Everything surrounding this play makes that 25.5 amount seem way too low. Detroit may not need to resort to the pass much — that’s really the only concern. So, maybe Gibbs doesn’t obliterate this number. But, he and the Bucs have shown he won’t need many opportunities to reach 26 receiving yards.
The play: MORE
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Daniel Jones
Interceptions Thrown: 0.5
Jones is a mess. The only thing that’d be concerning about this play is if the Giants pull him very early. Thankfully, the Commanders don’t have good enough of a defense that we should see Jones removed before he turns the ball over. Washington just allowed Baker Mayfield to log 289 passing yards — which is why we’re not looking at Jones’ passing yards in Week 2. But if Jones is in the whole game, he’s going to give Washington at least one opportunity to pick him off.
The play: MORE
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards: 49.5 yards
Sticking with WAS-NYG, McLaurin had a very mild opener. He was only targeted four times. That results in 17 yards on two receptions.
Those numbers are the result of Jayden Daniels’ legs and who he was targeting in Week 1. Daniels logged 16 rushes and threw the ball 24 times. Of those 24 pass attempts, 13 went to the group of Ekeler (four), Robinson (four), Zach Ertz (four) and John Bates (one). That group also reeled in 10 of their targets.
Daniels looked for his tight ends and running backs, and it worked. McLaurin will still probably get three to five targets, but it’s hard to imagine he garners more in a game where Washington shouldn’t have to play catch-up
The play: LESS
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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