We’ve got one week of NFL results in the book, now it’s time for the ultimate overreaction week in the NFL — Week 2. Let’s do our best to navigate through what results gave us something actionable in Week 2, versus the results that we feel were a bit fraudulent. Here’s what I’m firing on this week on DraftKings Sportsbook, and we’ll look to come back with any additions closer to kickoff. I have a couple of other games I’m on the fence with, as well as a long list of player props to dig into that dropped on Friday.
6-PT Teaser: BAL -2/HOU PK (-120)
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The Raiders reached as high as +10 this week, and while I wasn’t running to the window to lay double digits, I was surprised to see Baltimore come back down to just an eight-point favorite. It opened up a tremendous teaser leg, being able to get the Ravens at anything less than -3, which I’ll gladly take. Baltimore took Kansas City to the wire in the opener, and now comes off a tough loss. That isn’t the spot you want to be up against the Ravens, particularly when Baltimore gets the long week to prepare after playing Thursday, and plays at home against arguably a bottom-five team in the NFL. This will be a popular survivor pick, and we know how those go. But much too strong of a spot for the Ravens to win this one against Las Vegas to pass it up. Look for a big game from Derrick Henry in a game the home team pulls away.
The Bears pulled off one of the most improbable victories in NFL history in Caleb Williams’ debut. However, none of it had to do with the No. 1 overall pick and the offense getting it together as the game went on. Tennessee built a sizable lead, and let a brutal interception and a kick return fuel the offense for the Bears. Chicago might be celebrating the win, but the spot gets much tougher in Week 2. The Bears will be on the road in primetime against a well oiled machine in the Houston Texans. C.J. Stroud and company will take care of their business, but don’t expect the Bears to pull a rabbit out of the hat again. When Chicago’s offense struggles this time around, flukey plays won’t be there to get back into the game. Not to mention that Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are both already dealing with injuries that could hold them out or limit them.
SEA -3 (-120)
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NE TT UNDER 17.5 (-130)
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The Patriots really impressed me in Week 1 with their offensive line play. The line was atrocious in the preseason, and somehow limited the Bengals to one sack in the opener, although Jacoby Brissett was under pressure quite often. I think everything else about that game spoke to how poorly Cincinnati played, and not what the Patriots are. Sure, New England has a solid defense, but Cincy played a very soft game — not to mention some key defenders are questionable for New England on Sunday, including Kyle Duggar.
The Bengals had too many injuries and not enough preparation in camp and the preseason to find any kind of rhythm. Against a good enough defense like New England, you’re not going to be able to just turn it on. Seattle should be able to turn it on on both sides of the ball. I’m not anticipating a blowout or anything, but the Seahawks have competent pieces on offense, and will not only make more plays than a rusty Bengals offense did, but also limit bad mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, Mike Macdonald brings his creative defensive schemes from Baltimore over to Seattle. This should create fewer opportunities for the Patriots than they had in Week 1, when they were able to play from ahead. New England was able to ground and pound in Cincy, but if they fall behind and have to drop Brissett back more than they want to, look for those offensive line issues to reappear. Seattle not only covers here, but a better defense than the Pats saw last week holds them under 17.5 points. New England managed just 16 points in the road victory.
DEN +3 (-120)
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This is one of the better spot plays in the early NFL season. The Broncos gave it their best in Seattle, but ultimately couldn’t get there with a rookie quarterback playing on the road against an elite defense in a tough atmosphere. I expect a much more cushy environment for Bo Nix at home playing alongside some strong coaching.
Pittsburgh clearly has a monster on defense with T.J. Watt. Atlanta couldn’t block him, and Kirk Cousins was practically immobile. Denver’s offensive line should do a better job at home in this one, and remember that Nix can scamper — he had 35 yards and a TD in his NFL debut, following over 1,600 rushing yards and 38 rushing TD in his college career.
With Denver able to move the ball in some different ways, the Steelers are not going to be able to get away with going on the road and winning without scoring a touchdown. Not to mention, Denver gets to prepare for Justin Fields and see how he was used last week, whereas Atlanta found out just a couple days in advance who the QB would be. Fields did not impress, he simply didn’t screw up. A second straight road start at elevation against Denver’s defense is going to prove much more difficult. I think the Broncos should get this one outright.
IND ML (-130)
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Obviously, this is a very public play this week, as the Colts are short favorites on the road in Green Bay. Jordan Love is out of action, and sharp bettors are backing Malik Willis in his fourth NFL start. The Packers do offer more weapons that the Titans did, but Willis has never passed for over 100 yards in a single game of his NFL career — including his three previous starts!
The Colts defense is nothing special at all, but I’m going to make Willis prove he can put forward a competent enough game through the air to get his team a win. That said, I don’t mind Willis or Josh Jacobs to go over their rushing props, but I’ll take the dynamic offense the Colts can use to produce a win.
ARI 1H ML (-108)
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I used Arizona as a contest play to win this game, and we do have some late steam coming in on the Rams as I write this at about 12:15pm ET. But the Rams are dealing with a ton of injuries entering this game. More than half the offensive line will join Puka Nacua on the sidelines, as well as some defensive players. The Cardinals are also a little dinged up, and do have a starter missing on the offensive line themselves.
Arizona hung tough last week in Buffalo, and I think we could see a similar hot start in this game — the Cards led 17-10 at halftime. The Rams had a slower start in Detroit, trailing by a touchdown at the break. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford put together a tremendous comeback to get that game to overtime, and I do fear the in-game adjustments the Rams could make in this one. That pushes me towards the first half in this game, where Arizona should come out and take advantage of the key absences the Rams have.
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