It’s Friday the 13th. But the only thing that spookier than than the date is the White Sox’s win-loss record. Thank you. Thank you. I’ll be here all week. Tip the bar staff.
Sorry. You’re not here for jokes. You’re here for MLB picks. Let’s dive into tonight’s 11-game slate.
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PITCHER
Stud
Yusei Kikuchi, Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, $9,200 – There are so many big-name pitchers taking the mound this evening that I’m hoping Kikuchi falls through the cracks in terms of ownership. The left-hander isn’t the most consistent arm in the world, but he certainly doesn’t lack in upside. Heck, Kikuchi registered 38.8 FPTS in an outing against the Royals back on August 31. The key with the southpaw is his strikeout ability. Kikuchi sports a 27.6% strikeout rate and 12.9% swinging strike rate across 156.2 innings of work. I would assume he’s able to expand on those figures this evening, as the Angels possess baseball’s third-highest strikeout rate over the past 30 days (28.1%).
Value
Brady Basso, Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, $4,000 – Is it odd to say that a $4K rookie pitcher with one career start at the MLB level might be chalky? Basso is not a reliever, despite what his positional listing on DraftKings might suggest. Ask the Tigers, as Basso tossed six scoreless innings versus Detroit on September 7, using 85 pitches in the process. Basso also has 18 starts across Double-A and Triple-A in 2024. Yet, the 26-year-old finds himself listed at the bare minimum price in a matchup with possibly the worst team in the history of MLB. I’m a weak man. I’ll take the bait.
INFIELD
Stud
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $5,500 – The Jays’ offense has been sneaky good over the last month and Guerrero is obviously a massive part of that turnaround. Really, Vlad’s just been one of MLB’s best hitters dating back to the beginning of May. In that span, among qualified hitters, Guerrero ranks second in batting average (.345), wOBA (.424) and wRC+ (182) to only Aaron Judge ($6,800). However, the Blue Jays’ All-Star is also consistently over $1K less expensive than Judge or Shohei Ohtani ($7,000). Take the savings, particularly in a matchup with Erick Fedde ($7,400), who has struggled to a 5.36 FIP in his last nine starts.
Stud
Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, $4,600 – It’s been a rough season at the plate for Swanson, but things have looked better since the All-Star break. In his last 48 games, the former first-overall pick is hitting .272 with a 119 wRC+. For 2024 as a whole, Swanson’s also specifically hit left-handed pitching quite well, slashing .302/.378/.512 with a 147 wRC+ within the split. Tonight, he’ll draw the lefty Austin Gomber ($5,500) at Coors Field. That’s about as ideal a spot as Swanson gets.
Value
Edouard Julien, Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds, $3,100 – In 609 career plate appearances against RHPs, Julien possesses an .802 OPS and a 128 wRC+. He’s clearly locked into the leadoff spot when the Twins face a right-handed stater. However, despite all that, Julien is consistently under-priced on DraftKings. It’s especially perplexing on Friday, as Minnesota will square-off with Julian Aguiar ($5,200), who is allowing an eye-popping 3.48 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs in his five starts with the Reds this season.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, $5,700 – This might seem expensive for Suzuki’s services, but the outfielder has been on fire since the beginning of July. To wit, in Suzuki’s last 268 plate appearances, he’s managing an .880 OPS with a .217 ISO and a 145 wRC+. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Gomber has surrendered 20 long balls to opposing RHBs in 2024. I think Suzuki has a chance to make that 21 on Friday in the altitude. That is, unless one of his teammates does it first.
Value
Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox, $5,500 – Rooker is having one of the most under-appreciated seasons in recent memory. He comes into Friday’s action as one of just six qualified players with a wOBA of at least .400. He also ranks fourth in wRC+ (168), right ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez ($5,900). There was a time when Garrett Crochet ($6,900) was a name to fear, yet with restrictions in place, Rooker will only have to face Chicago’s ace one time. After that, it’s a bullpen that ranks dead-last in the AL in ERA (4.87). Advantage: Rooker.
Value
Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, $3,900 – Burleson has been a bright spot in another lost season for the Cardinals. The 25-year-old is a legit platoon threat, slashing .295/.343/.484 with a 130 wRC+ in his 401 plate appearances against RHPs this season. He’ll likely hit out of the two-spot this evening against Kevin Gausman ($8,000). Now, Gausman has been better in the second-half of 2024, yet he’s still had his issues pitching at Rogers Centre. In 82.0 innings at home, the veteran owns a ghastly 5.49 ERA.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
