It did not take long for the madness of the NFL to begin. Despite being -345 favorites on the moneyline entering the game, the heaviest favorite of the week, the Cincinnati Bengals fell to the New England Patriots 16-10. This upset busted nearly 40% of survivor pools in the opening week.
Hopefully, you survived and remain alive in your pools. Here is a look at the top-ranked matchups of the week and the games you want to avoid to put yourself in the best position.
1. Baltimore Ravens over Las Vegas Raiders (-8.5 Spread and -410 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Baltimore Ravens will be looking to pick themselves off the matt after falling inches short of the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL’s opening game. While the result was frustrating, losing to the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions is not something that should have Ravens fans panicking. Luckily, they have a great opportunity to get back in the win column against a Las Vegas Raiders team that is coming off a 22-10 loss at the hands of the Chargers.
The Ravens still have things they need to fix. Too much of Thursday’s game was Lamar Jackson running for his life and they were unable to get Derrick Henry going. Even still, they were within inches of producing a game-tying touchdown and will face a far easier matchup against the Raiders.
Las Vegas looked shaky in the opening game. They were held under 300 yards of total offense and did not score a touchdown in the final three-quarters of the game. While you could make the case Gardner Minshew gives you a better chance to win than some of the other quarterback play that occurred Sunday, there is still a ceiling for what he brings to the table.
The Ravens should still be considered legitimate Super Bowl threats that just had a tough first-week test. Look for them to assert what they are truly capable of this week by getting Derrick Henry going on the ground and then opening up the rest of the playbook from there. Las Vegas will struggle to slow this down and lacks the offensive firepower to match this level of scoring. Expect the Ravens to produce a comfortable double-digit victory and get back on track in Week 2.
2. Houston Texans over Chicago Bears (-6 Spread and -258 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams will be one of the most highly anticipated quarterback matchups of the week and maybe even the season. The two young quarterbacks also enter this matchup with a much different outlook. Stroud picked up right where he left off last season and led the Texans to a 29-27 victory in their opening game. Williams did not have as positive of a showing and looked far from the number one overall pick expected to turn the organization around immediately.
While the Bears managed to get the 24-17 victory over the Titans, this had little to do with Williams. The USC product completed 14 of his 29 passes for just 93 yards and failed to throw for a touchdown. It took two defensive and special teams touchdowns, one from a blocked punt and one of the worst interceptions you will ever see from Will Levis, for the Bears to get the win.
Chicago will not have the luxury of relying on this defense and special teams production in this game. The Texans are a legitimate playoff threat who will continue to prove themselves. While Williams and the Bears’ offense should be expected to be better than the opening week, the Texans are a difficult matchup. Houston has a trio of dynamic wide receivers that will cause some issues. Expect Stroud to continue to shine and for the Texans to produce a comfortable victory in the home opener.
3. Los Angeles Chargers over Carolina Panthers (-6 Spread and -238 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the bigger mystery teams across the NFL entering the season. They got off to their desired start in the opening game defeating the Raiders 22-10. Los Angeles is embracing its identity as a run-first team and showed this in the opening game. The Chargers tallied 176 rushing yards in the game and will continue to lean on this moving forward.
Expect this to be an issue for the Panthers who allowed 180 rushing yards against the Saints in the opening week. Carolina is one of the biggest losers of the first weekend as they were blown out 47-10 and Bryce Young showed the exact same struggles that were the case his rookie year. Young only completed 13 of his 30 pass attempts for 161 yards. He was unable to throw for a touchdown, tossed a pair of interceptions, and also lost a fumble.
Carolina’s defense allowed the most points of any NFL team in the opening week and there is little optimism for their offense. While the Chargers are not perfect, they are more reliable to have an established game plan and fewer holes to capitalize on. Expect them to have no issue picking up the victory in this game and for Carolina to begin to do some real soul-searching.
4. Philadelphia Eagles over Atlanta Falcons (-6.5 Spread and -325 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another big loser of the opening week was Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons. The organization handed Cousins a four-year contract worth $180 million this offseason with the hopes he would be the missing piece. In his debut with the franchise, Cousins completed 16 of his 26 pass attempts for 155 yards, one touchdown, and a pair of interceptions. Beyond the numbers, Cousins looked timid and less mobile than he was in years past. The veteran will look to shake off the rust brought on by the Achilles tear last season, but the early returns are concerning for the veteran.
The Philadelphia Eagles will be returning home from Brazil after defeating the Packers last week in the first-ever NFL game in South America. It was not a perfect performance for the Eagles, but there is plenty to build off. Saquon Barkley shined with a three-touchdown performance and showcased the new element the offense now has. The Philadelphia defense also impressed and held the Packers to field goals after being given some tough field position during the game due to turnovers.
With the home crowd behind them and an argument for both the Eagles offense and defense being more complete, don’t expect them to let this opportunity slip. The Falcons will look to right the ship and look better than they did in the opening week, but this is a significant step up in competition. There are too many concerns with the way Cousins played and the Eagles will be an even more dangerous team than the Steelers who produced the 18-10 victory over them in the opening game.
5. San Francisco 49ers over Minnesota Vikings (-6 Spread and -258 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The San Francisco 49ers made a statement in the opening by comfortably holding the New York Jets at an arm’s distance and slowing down the hype. The game was ultimately decided by a score of 32-19 but also involved Aaron Rodgers being taken out in the 4th due to the game being out of reach.
San Francisco will now travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings. Sam Darnold exceeded expectations in his first game as the Vikings Starter. The former 3rd overall pick completed 19 of his 24 pass attempts for 208 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. This will be an essential year for Darnold to rebuild his value and ensure he has an NFL future. While the opening week was a success in this, expect it to be a different story against this 49ers defense.
The status of Christian McCaffrey remains unknown, but his absence did not slow down San Francisco in the opener. If anything this only shows there is another level the 49ers will reach, but the one they are currently on will have no problems dealing with Minnesota.
Games to Avoid:
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs Buffalo Bills (+114 ML)
A divisional showdown on primetime is a recipe for disaster. Both the Dolphins and Bills should be considered playoff threats and are coming off Week 1 wins. While there is plenty of value in the player prop market, stay away from this game from a survivor pool standpoint.
Washington Commanders (-1.5) vs New York Giants (+102 ML)
This is another divisional battle with a lot of variables in play. Jayden Daniels had the best debut performance of the rookie class of quarterbacks but still has questions to answer. In contrast, the Giants looked about as bad as they possibly could have in their 28-6 opening-week loss to the Vikings. This is a matchup with too many concerns regarding both teams to be a survivor pool pick.
Arizona Cardinals (-1) vs Los Angeles Rams (+102 ML)
Each of these teams is coming off a loss in which they played an overall impressive game. The Rams lost in overtime to the Lions on Sunday Night Football while the Cardinals pushed the Buffalo Bills to a 34-28 result. Kyler Murray showed some signs of life at quarterback and the Cardinals are a talented team if things click. Stay away from this matchup for now but both teams could come into play further on in the season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
