Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, with half the teams off to the start they desired and the other half feeling like the sky is falling. Both the Bills and Dolphins managed to produce a comeback victory in Week 1 over their respective opponents and will now face off in an AFC East showdown.
There are some injuries to keep an eye on this matchup. For the Dolphins, Raheem Mostert has been ruled out due to a chest injury. De’Von Achane is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. For the Bills, Josh Allen finished up the opening game with his left hand wrapped up. While this has been downplayed by the organization and Allen is not expected to miss time, this is still something to keep an eye on.
This game is set to take place in Miami with the Dolphins entering the matchup as 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bills are considered +114 on the moneyline and the game’s total is set at 48.5 points. While we have plenty of breakdowns regarding Pick6, DFS, and Fantasy Football expectations, here is a breakdown of my favorite player props ahead of Week 2 of Thursday Night Football.
Tyreek Hill Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Tyreek Hill had the second-most receiving yards of any player in the NFL in the opening slate of games, trailing only Packers WR Jayden Reed. After recording seven receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown, Hill will be looking to build off this performance.
Given the Dolphins’ running backs’ injuries, Hill will be even more important in this matchup. Look for Mike McDaniel to combat the lack of running back play by leaning on the screen game more.
Whether through screen passes or the traditional passing game, the ball will be in Tyreek Hill’s hands often. He is off to another strong start this season after leading the NFL in total receiving yards last year. Expect him to be in the running once again this year and for Hill to eclipse 97.5 yards receiving in Thursday Night’s game.
Keon Coleman Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After trading away Stefon Diggs in the offseason, the Bills are still looking to establish their passing game pecking order. No wide receiver saw more than 5 targets in the opening game. At the top of this list was Keon Coleman who caught 4 of his 5 targets for 51 yards.
It will not be overnight, but Coleman will grow into their top wide receiver throughout the season. The 33rd overall pick flashed some impressive body control in his debut and has big play potential in his game. The Bills will be desperately searching for reliable wide receiver production and Coleman would be a natural candidate. Expect him to have no problem clearing the 43.5-yard margin and build off a solid week one showing.
Josh Allen Over 286.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115)
Josh Allen finished as the 4th best scorer in fantasy football based on DraftKings DFS scoring. He has one of the highest floors for production of any player in the NFL on a week-by-week basis. As he continues to work through the growing pains of his new wide receiver group, Allen may lean on his legs more. The two-time Pro Bowler recorded 232 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in the opening game while also adding 39 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his nine carries.
Expect the Dolphins to put together a more successful offensive performance this week and for Allen to play catch-up. While it’s appealing to take just the passing prop at 246.5 passing yards, betting it in this direction to include the rushing yards gives a little extra cushion. Allen averaged 39 rushing yards per game last season and has eclipsed an average of 40 rushing yards per game in three other seasons. Allen is must-watch TV and can comfortably clear 286.5 combined passing and rushing yards.
Tyreek Hill Anytime TD & Josh Allen Anytime TD Parlay (+244)
Tyreek Hill enters the matchup with -120 odds of finding the end zone. He was successful in finding pay dirt in the opening game and led the NFL in receiving touchdowns last year with 13. Miami also relies heavily on their running backs in the red zone. Raheem Mostert, who will be missing this game due to injury, led the entire NFL in touchdowns last year with 18 on the ground and 21 in total. De’Von Achane, who is questionable for the matchup, also added eight rushing touchdowns and 11 total last season. Especially considering the injury concerns at running back, the Dolphins presumably will make every effort to find Hill in the end zone.
Josh Allen holds -115 odds of scoring a rushing touchdown. Last season he tallied 15 rushing touchdowns which was tied with Jalen Hurts for the second-most in the NFL. Allen also rushed for a pair of touchdowns in the opening-week matchup this season. Whether it is through QB sneak opportunities or making a play deep in the red zone, Allen is a weapon the Bills will continue to use. His monstrous 6-foot-5 frame gives him an edge over many other rushing quarterbacks. Especially given the uncertainty with the Bills’ wide receivers, we can expect Allen to capitalize and find the end zone with his legs.
You will hear no arguments from me if you want to take either or both of these anytime touchdown bets solo. But parlaying them for +244 odds is worth taking the extra swing on. The 48.5-point total indicates there is some significant scoring expected, and look for both of these players to play a part in this.
Tua Tagovailoa 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+300)
Last season the Dolphins led the NFL in yards and were second in scoring by producing 29.2 points per game. Tua Tagovailoa threw for an NFL-best 4,624 yards along with 29 touchdowns. He enters this week with -140 odds to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns. But rather than paying the juice, we are going with the alternate line and taking Tagovailoa to throw for three touchdowns in the Thursday Night matchup at +300.
The Dolphins’ offense did not look quite right last week and was held just seven points at halftime. They flipped a switch in the second half outscoring the Jaguars 13-0, but will need to keep pace with Buffalo throughout this game. Last season the Bills ranked 6th in scoring and are coming off a 34-28 victory in the opening week.
With the injuries to their running backs, Miami will be forced to score through the air. They have plenty of weapons to get it done and will have a scheme in place for Tagovailoa to capitalize. Expect the Dolphins’ offense to have shaken off the rust. Count on this team to produce at least three touchdowns and for Tagovailoa to be at the heart of this production.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
