Here at DKN, we’re not just focused on the DFS and the season-long fantasy implications of a given NFL week. We’re also keeping a close eye on how performances each week affect the market for futures bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
To wit, I’m going to be tracking all the shifts in the Rookie of the Year odds after every regular season week. I’ll give you insights as to why the odds moved, and how I might bet them over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Quick note: I neither included analysis for Bo Nix nor Brock Bowers this week, as I feel like their performances were a bit as-expected. I didn’t see enough value to warrant breakdowns just yet.
NFL Rookie of the Year Odds for Week 2 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (+165)
A win’s a win in the NFL, so major congratulations to Captain Caleb and his hard-knocking Bears. Williams needed all the physicality he could get from the defense and special teams in order to snap the ball in victory formation as the clock wound down. The offense was the only disappointing phase for Chicago all game. To call his performance a mixed bag would be doing Williams a service.
The lack of movement here is certainly because the Bears are now 1-0. And, if Caleb goes on to have even marginally-better a season-long performance than the small sample size we saw today, and the Bears even sniff making the playoffs, he’ll likely remain among the favorites to take home this hardware.
Remember—it wasn’t until Week 4 in 2023 when C.J. Stroud really hard-launched his OROY campaign. Williams might be an entirely different quarterback before the calendar month even turns.
But there’s just no meat on this bone right now. If you have a bet on Caleb already, let it ride (obviously). But, if you don’t, this isn’t the week to jump on.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (+360)
You just sort of got the sense Daniels was going to have the more impressive Week 1 performance between he and Williams, didn’t you? Perhaps it’s the vestige of last year’s from-just-outside-the-spotlight advent of C.J. Stroud, but it felt like there was just too much heat on Williams. Fair to have thought that maybe Daniels would feel more empowered to play freer.
Sure seems like he did. Compare his final line to that of Williams’s above: Daniels rushed for 88 yards and two touchdowns, using his running ability on designed carries and scramble attempts, while throwing for 184 yards on 17-of-24 passing.
If this were college football and we were talking about the Heisman, I’d say: Sure, the Commanders didn’t win, but Daniels still balled out and will be a weekly fixture atop the favorites for this award. But it’s not, so I won’t.
The Commanders still look like a renovation-in-progress. Daniels’s chance at this award goes as the team goes—at least to some degree—and I don’t think the Washington is going to get it together enough in 2024.
Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (+800)
Who?
Absolute aberration of a performance. We’re all too familiar with the video of a wide-open Harrison open along the right sideline while Kyler Murray scrambled for his dear life in the pocket for what seemed like fifteen seconds.
Call it like it is: Harrison, Jr.’s NFL career began with a total stinker in which he registered one reception for four yards.
This is just an example of Week 1 rust and lack of familiarity playing with each other. Who knows how much Harrison’s apparel-related litigation over the summer distracted him from meaningful practice/preseason reps.
Do I think Harrison will still have a great rookie season? I do. Am I taking a wide receiver to win Rookie of the Year after being reminded that he can disappear for an entire game? Not at this price.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+850)
Of course we need to talk about Xavier Worthy once more after his breakout performance against the Ravens in Week 1. His jet sweep touchdown (during which he topped out at 18.45mph, according to NFL Next Gen Stats) was the first electric play of the 2024 season.
His final line against the Ravens clocked in at two receptions on three targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He also added that 21-yard jet sweep TD on the ground. Worthy was at ten-to-one odds for this award on Sunday night, and has since jumped to +850.
Still, I’m much more interested in Worthy than Marvin Harrison. The Chiefs are manufacturing touches for him in the way they tried to manufacture touches for Kadarius Toney, and they’re working. Anytime a team—especially an offensive juggernaut like the Chiefs—shows you they’ve schemed specific high-value plays for individual players like Worthy, we pay attention.
I know many of us watched Mahomes seemingly chain-rifle passes to Rashee Rice over the middle most of the game. But did we also note that, many of those times, it’s because the Ravens lined up Roquan Smith (just a tipple slower than Rice) or Kyle Hamilton (often in soft coverage) against him? I believe Rice’s volume has more to do with the Ravens’ stubbornness to rotate defensive personnel.
More volume is coming Worthy’s way. The rookie shined under the marquee lights against a stout defensive secondary. Mahomes can trust him. The play-callers saw him convert two touchdowns.
I’d sprinkle, here.
Long(er)shots:
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (+1600): Should have gotten in on him at +5000 before the season started. Chargers look good. Offensive line is buying Herbert time. And McConkey did a lot of the shifty work on his first NFL touchdown. He won’t stay this cheap.
Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills (+2200): That sideline catch for 28 yards from Josh Allen had a 16.3% chance of being completed. Coleman did all the work there. Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir made the paydirt headlines in Week 1 for pass-catchers. But keep an eye on Coleman. I might bet him at this price.
Brian Thomas, Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500): If he has the equivalent of a Zay Jones season down in Duval County, could he win this award? Maybe. Might be worth a flier.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
