As the start of the 2024-25 NBA season approaches, the MVP conversations have already begun. This season’s race seems to be an exciting one, with several familiar faces projected to remain in the mix.
Leading the pack is Nikola Jokic, the reigning MVP, who is looking to claim his fourth MVP title. However, with other stars like Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the mix, this season’s race could see some tight competition.
Based on the latest NBA odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, I analyze the MVP landscape ahead of the 2024-25 season.
Jokic is favored to win fourth MVP
Jokic is coming off another MVP season, winning the award in three of the past four seasons. He averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists in 79 games, leading the Denver Nuggets to a 57-25 record and the second seed in the Western Conference.
If Jokic manages to win a fourth MVP (2021, 2022, and 2024), he’d tie Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James for the third most in NBA history. He’d trail only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six), Bill Russell (five), and Michael Jordan (five) for the most MVP awards ever. When this type of legacy is on the line, the scrutiny for his candidacy is worth factoring in. Before the Serbian superstar won his third MVP, it became a common talking point about how he’d join such an exclusive group that included Larry Bird. Now, the stakes will only by higher.
When evaluating Jokic’s outlook, there are questions regarding the Nuggets’ supporting cast instead of his personal impact. Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency will not help the Nuggets’ outlook unless Christian Braun proves to be a viable replacement. Denver is banking on Russell Westbrook to be a regular season floor-raiser on a bench unit that has sorely struggled to keep up opposing units while Jokic is on the bench.
With Jamal Murray playing through injury at the Paris Olympics, his durability is in question. Michael Porter Jr. is a player to monitor in that regard as well considering his injury history. If either player has to miss games for a lengthy stretch of time, Denver isn’t well-equipped to overcome it.
Doncic is a close second
Doncic has produced incredible stats throughout his career, but the Dallas Mavericks have been unable to finish with one of the top records in the Western Conference—limiting his MVP candidacy. At +370 to win MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook, he’s right there with Jokic.
After reaching the NBA Finals, there is a lot of reason for optimism with the Mavericks’ outlook in 2024-25. Klay Thompson highlights their list of offseason additions that also includes Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes. After adding P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford using midseason trades, there is a lot to like about this team’s depth. It doesn’t hurt that Dereck Lively II exceeded expectations as a rookie with a lot of room to grow.
The Mavericks have reached the Western Conference Finals twice in Doncic’s tenure. However, a transitional period occurred between both of those two lengthy postseason runs, due to Jalen Brunson’s departure to the New York Knicks. After his exit, Dallas had a limited supporting cast without a co-star before trading for Kyrie Irving and gradually filling out the rest of the group.
During each of the past two seasons, the team has undergone significant midseason changes—lowering their regular season ceiling. Already coming off a 50-32 record with an improved roster, Doncic should manage to lead this Mavericks squad to a lot of wins without the need for significant midseason changes. It does help knowing their front office isn’t reluctant to make upgrades when needed, though.
Doncic has a co-star, multiple rim protectors, and versatile wing players. Dallas has a real outlook to be one of the best regular season teams in the Western Conference, not just the team “nobody wants to face” in the playoffs. If he continues to produce at historic levels while leading his team to an elite record, his MVP candidacy will be as strong as any.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Embiid are next up
After finishing second in MVP voting last season, Gilgeous-Alexander remains a serious candidate entering the 2024-25 season at +600 to win MVP, per DraftKings Sportsbook. All signs point to him continuing to put up incredible numbers while leading one of the NBA’s best teams.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds in 75 games while guiding the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 57-25 record resulting in a first-place finish in the West. That tends to be a great combination for MVP candidacy. He only missed seven games last season while his young Oklahoma City squad will only get better as the core develops, including names like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, among others.
Embiid, like Gilgeous-Alexander, is +600 to win MVP, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s the first player that comes to mind for the 65-game minimum rule to be eligible for end-of-season awards. After appearing in only 39 games, he was quickly ineligible, but remained an elite player averaging 34.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists.
When reviewing Embiid’s career history, he’s only played 65 or more games in two seasons, including his MVP campaign in 2022-23. However, even then, he barely met the mark by playing 66 games. The most games he’s played in a single-season was 68 in 2021-22.
Unless the emergence of Tyrese Maxey and arrival of Paul George helps Embiid pace himself to improve his durability, it’s difficult to bank on him playing enough games. Any potential lack of availability limits the Philadelphia 76ers’ outlook in the Eastern Conference, which does come back around to affect his MVP candidacy. Are they talented enough to still be one of the NBA’s best teams if Embiid misses games?
Antetokounmpo completes the top tier
As a two-time MVP winner still in his prime, it’s important not to overlook Antetokounmpo as a serious option. He averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 73 games last season—maintaining his status as one of the league’s top players. For that reason, he’s at +650 on DraftKings Sportsbook to be named MVP.
Damian Lillard’s arrival has provided a helpful dynamic offensive threat, but the Bucks are far from being the elite defensive team they once were. Similar to Jokic, Antetokounmpo is on a team that didn’t make meaningful offseason moves to get better.
Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez continue to age while the front office has limited financial flexibility or assets to make upgrades to the supporting cast. Milwaukee still finished with a 49-33 record in the weaker Eastern Conference last season, finishing third in the standings.
A few teams will be better equipped to improve upon their seeding for this upcoming season, including the Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, and Philadelphia 76ers. Their presumably improved records could negatively impact Antetokounmpo’s MVP outlook. Regardless, the Bucks should remain one of the best teams in the East.
Other options to consider
After Antetokounmpo, there is a significant gap before the next tier of MVP candidates. Anthony Edwards is next up at +1200 on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Jayson Tatum (+1800) and Jalen Brunson (+1800) are the only other players with odds better than +2000 at this point.
Edwards is on the rise in his career and the Minnesota Timberwolves are projected to be among the top teams in the Western Conference again. However, his production hasn’t reached historic levels yet. His offensive efficiency tends to be a step below other elite players. A significant factor in the Timberwolves’ success last season was their league-best defense, which wasn’t a result of Edwards’ offense. He’ll need to raise his game to another offensive level.
Tatum is coming off an impressive championship run with the Boston Celtics, but it doesn’t help the ongoing narrative about his value that Jaylen Brown won Eastern Conference Finals MVP and Finals MVP. The perception among many is that Tatum is on a stacked team.
There are a lot of talented players on the Knicks that could somewhat limit Brunson’s production. However, his methodical offensive impact featured plenty of big scoring nights last season and precision in the clutch. It just remains to be seen if his production will be eye-catching enough, or whether the Knicks’ record will be strong enough. For now, he’s a fringe MVP candidate until proven otherwise.
The players with the next-best odds to win MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook include names like Victor Wembanyama (+2500), Ja Morant (+3000), Stephen Curry (+5000), Kevin Durant (+6000), and Trae Young (+8000). The rest of the options have +10000 or worse odds.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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