We’re running out of regular season baseball, people. In fact, tonight’s nine-game MLB slate kicks off the final three weeks of action before the playoffs, which means every contest is incredibly important.
Still, some are more important that others. Those will be the two games that we happen to bet on this evening. You get it.
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
I think it’s safe to say that the Soto trade has been a rousing success for the Yankees. The 25-year-old has been an absolute monster for the Bronx Bombers, mashing 38 home runs with a .468 expected wOBA and a 181 wRC+ in his 636 plate appearances. As you might imagine from one of the game’s best left-handed bats, Soto’s been particularly effective at hitting right-handed pitching in 2024, slashing .301/.424/.602 within the split. All of this seems like bad news for Brady Singer, who will be tasked with facing Soto on Monday night.
Singer’s had a nice campaign in his own right, getting back on track after a horrendous 2023 season, yet if the former first-round pick has an Achilles’ heel, it’s left-handed opponents. Singer’s seen 375 LHBs across 28 starts and he’s allowed those men to combine for a .299 average with a .368 wOBA. For context, RHB are batting just .195 off Singer with a paltry .231 wOBA. This is what can happen to a right-handed pitcher whose primary weapon is a slider.
Really, the only way I see this prop going sideways is if Soto draws a couple walks instead of registering a couple base hits. However, Singer currently sits in the 72nd percentile of pitchers in walk rate (6.5%). He’s generally in the strike zone, which should force Soto to be aggressive.
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Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
Marlins ML (+215)
I know. On paper, a starting pitching matchup between Paul Skenes and Valente Bellozo doesn’t exactly favor the Marlins. However, as all baseball fans know — and as Livvy Dunne is in the process of learning — one player is not enough to win a game.
Pittsburgh is just 3-3 in Skenes’ last six starts, a span of time where the hulking RHP has looked slightly more mortal than usual, pitching to a 3.46 xFIP and walking 10.4% of the opponents he’s faced. Still, this is obviously not a Skenes issue. It’s about everything else around him. The Pirates haven’t been able to hit all season long and a couple small moves at the deadline did not change that trend. Over the past 30 days, Pittsburgh owns an 87 wRC+ and a .135 ISO — the lowest mark of any team in the National League.
Across that same 30-day stretch, the Pirates can also claim the NL’s highest bullpen ERA (5.57). That collection of struggling arms has blown more than a couple of Skenes’ starts and was the specific inspiration for Dunne’s previously mentioned tweet.
Bellozo’s thrown at least 5.2 scoreless innings in three of his last six outings. The Marlins rank sixth in slugging percentage (.424) and eighth in wOBA (.323) over the last 30 days. There are certainly paths to them winning this contest against a Pirates squad that is 12-23 in its past 35 games.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
