MLB Saturdays are winding down, but there is no reason to frown. DraftKings Sportsbook offers plenty of ways to play. There are Money Lines, Run Lines and Player Props. Check out the best bets for the Saturday, September 7 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (135)
It’s September. Bad offenses get worse. Lineups are loaded with minor leaguers. The three lineups to target on Saturday were barely major lineups to begin with.
Colorado has a 26% K-Rate, .157 ISO, .309 wOBA and 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They’ve been worse over the last week — 31% K-Rate, .079 ISO, .254 wOBA and 48 wRC+. There are golf clubs in the clubhouse. The Rockies are ready to call it a season. Colorado’s Brenton Doyle and Sam Hilliard haven’t given up yet. They posted strong numbers against right-handed pitching, but their stats are inflated by Coors Field. Both are below-average hitters on the road. This lineup isn’t frightening.
Tobias Meyers allowed three runs in his last start, but it was at Cincinnati and he suffered a .438 BABIP. Home runs have stung, too. Milwaukee is not a pitcher-friendly park but it’s not Coors Field. Colorado can’t hit outside of the state. Their 77 wRC+ on the road is the second-worst in MLB.
Meyers is showing no signs of hitting a wall. He might be a rookie, but the 26-year-old has been pitching professionally since 2016. His velocity has not dropped and his elite spin rate is unchanged. Meyers should keep Colorado cool on Saturday.
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+120)
Pittsburgh isn‘t as bad as Colorado, but they’re not much better. The Pirates have a 27% K-Rate, .142 ISO, .301 wOBA and 90 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They haven’t been striking out at an alarming rate over the last week (22% K-Rate), but they’re not doing much with their contact — .090 ISO, .237 wOBA and 49 wRC+. The Pirates’ best hitter in matchups with left-handed pitching is Andrew McCutcheon (.321 wOBA). Mitchell Parker shouldn’t have any problems with a lineup led by an aging average hitter.
Excluding nine runs to the Phillies on Aug. 15, Parker has tossed 29.1 innings in his most recent starts. He’s surrendered six runs in those starts (1.84 ERA). Parker may not put on a show, but there won’t be much of a show to see. The Pirates are 10 games back in the Wild Card and are eight games under .500. If Paul Skenes isn’t on the mound, then there’s no reason to believe in the Pirates. It’s Steelers season in Pennsylvania.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Padres Moneyline (-155)
The Pirates and the Rockies are terrible. Only the White Sox have a lower wRC+. The Giants are little bit more productive — 26th wRC+. San Francisco has struggled with right-handed pitching all season — 23% K-Rate, .149 ISO, .298 wOBA and 92 wRC+. And like the Bucs and Rocks, they’re getting worse — 32% K-Rate, .143 ISO, .285 wOBA and 84 wRC+ over the last seven games. Tyler Fitzgerald has a .366 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. The Giants next best hitter is LaMonte Wade Jr. His .337 wOBA is respectable but his .121 ISO is fairly weak.
Dylan Cease had a rough August. His walks are up, but two of those starts were unlucky (.438 and .450 BABIP). Cease has not allowed a home run in his last three starts. Everything is fine. It appears Cease’s slide has ceased. He allowed three earned runs in his last start but only surrendered two hits. Ceased tossed five shut out innings, but the sixth inning didn’t go so well. He walked two batters, hit one with a pitch and threw a wild pitch. When it was all said and done, three runs were on the board. Nothing has changed with Cease. The Statcast data says Cease is the same pitcher who threw a no-hitter earlier this summer.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
