The NFL season has arrived, but we still have some time to finalize our futures card before Sunday. Let’s rip through what I am on, with no shortage of unique markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I did put out a pair of plays involving the Philadelphia Eagles back in July, which you can find here.
Chargers to MISS Playoffs (-135) — 1-unit
Chargers UNDER 9.5 Wins (-175) — 1-unit
Jim Harbaugh was able to immediately turn the 49ers around when he took his first NFL job in 2011, but this is a different situation. This team has only found its way to 10 wins once in the last five seasons, and regressed all the way to 5-12 last season. The Chargers are going to look to run the ball and play defense, which is a tough way to win in 2024 with the level of quarterback play around the league. They have Justin Herbert, the the offensive line is under construction, and his top weapons in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have departed. The division also plays a factor — Kansas City is elite again, the Raiders have a chance to be decent, and I’m higher than the market on Denver. I feel the price to miss the playoffs is way too short, and would be stunned if this team could pull of double digit wins.
Bears UNDER 9.5 Wins (-150) — 1.5-units
I’m going to fade all the Hard Knocks hype here. Yes, it’s a unique situation with the Bears feeling like they are close to putting it together, yet still landing Caleb Williams at the top of the draft. Chicago plays in a difficult division, and still has road games at Houston, Indianapolis and San Francisco. This team has a lot of potential, but we might be a year early projecting double digit wins and a playoff appearance.
Broncos OVER 5.5 Wins (-140) — 1-unit
I’m not the biggest Bo Nix fan, but I saw enough in preseason to believe that he is capable of running a modest offense here. Remember, the Broncos went 8-9 last season, and it would be tough to imagine getting worse quarterback play than what Russell Wilson gave them for the bulk of the year. The schedule doesn’t stand out one way or the other, but we can probably count of getting a home win over the Panthers. If Sean Payton has Nix playing the way he envisions, mistake-free football, the defense can help carry this team. A three-win drop off for this team just feels way too aggressive.
Patriots UNDER 4.5 Wins (+110) — 1.5-units
Fewest Wins: Patriots (+300) — 1-unit
I grew up a Patriots fan. This team had one of the great runs in sports. It was fantastic. We now deserve this … it’s going to be as bad as it gets this season. The offensive line play is atrocious — to the point the OL had eight penalties in the first half of a preseason game going against Washington’s backups. Drake Maye has some potential, but it would be irresponsible to throw him behind this OL with zero weapons to get the ball to. Sure, the defense might be decent, but let’s remember, it lost its two best players in Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore. Oh yeah, and we can downgrade the Pats for going from the greatest coach of all-time to Jerod Mayo. I get that it was ugly at the end with Bill Belichick, but we cannot overlook this coaching downgrade. The Patriots are underdogs in all 17 games this season, and deservingly so. This is going to be ugly.
Sam Darnold OVER 3500.5 Passing Yards (+100) — 1-unit
Sam Darnold 4000+ Passing Yards (+350) — 0.3-units
Sam Darnold 4500+ Passing Yards (+300) — 0.1-units
Loading up on Sam Darnold props. What could go wrong? This really has nothing to do with him, it has to do with his job security as QB1 with JJ McCarthy going down for the season. Last season the Vikings started four different quarterbacks, yet still combined to lead the NFL in passing yards with 4,800. If Darnold can start all 17 games, there’s no reason he can’t have that kind of production. Justin Jefferson is back and healthy, and this doesn’t project to be a very good team this season. Playing from behind in some games should only help rack up the yardage.
Zack Moss OVER 700.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 1-unit
Zack Moss 1000+ Rushing Yards (+280) — 0.5-units
Moss comes over to Cincy from Indy, and I think he has the chance to be a very big piece of this offense. This is being treated as a time-share with Chase Brown, but I’d argue Moss should be closer to stepping right into the Joe Mixon role. Here were Mixon’s rushing totals that he finished the season at each of the last five years that he was healthy (removes 2020 when he played just six games): 1,168, 1,137, 1,205, 814, 1,034. Moss ran for 794 yards last season in Indy, playing in 14 games and sharing the backfield with Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 741 in 10 games. Plug Moss into the RB1 role in Cincy, and we should have 1,000 yard season if he stays healthy.
Kahlil Shakir OVER 62.5 Receptions (-115) — 1-unit
Shakir lead the NFL in catch rate last season, hauling in 87.5% of his targets. He finished the regular season with just 39 receptions, but his role didn’t grow until later in the season — he hauled in 10 receptions in Buffalo’s two playoff games. Now Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out, and being replaced by rookie Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Shakir and Josh Allen obviously seem to connect well on the field given the catch rate, so look for Allen to lean on what he knows with some other moving parts at receiver.
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