Aside from an early afternoon game between the Yankees and Cubs, the MLB slate kicks off at 6:10 p.m. ET tonight. I’ll give you some of my favorite MLB picks for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Phillies Team Total over 4.5 runs -120
The Phillies have the luxury of playing in a series against the Marlins this weekend. They’ve been playing excellent baseball lately, going 8-2 over their last 10 games, including a currently five-game winning streak. They’ll be facing Edward Cabrera, whom they just saw almost a month ago back in Philly. In that game, they tagged him for six runs on six hits through four innings of work. Cabrera doesn’t have good numbers against either side of the plate, which is no wonder he has a 5.33 ERA and a 4.95 xERA. Lefties in particular has been one of his biggest issues, as he owns a .361 wOBA with a 6.45 FIP and eight of the 14 home runs he’s allowed.
The Phillies offense has been rolling lately. Over the last five games, they’re averaging five runs per game. Once Cabrera departs, they’ll have an opportunity to face a struggling Marlins bullpen. Over the last two weeks, they’ve combined for a 5.24 ERA with a 5.14 FIP and a 4.1 BB/9. There isn’t been much relief when it comes to the Marlins bullpen, so I think the Phillies continues to go to town against a team that threw in the towel three months ago.
Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Astros run line -0.5 through first five innings -115
The Astros are big favorites tonight against the Diamondbacks, priced at -180 on the moneyline. But, you can get them at -115 to lead after the first five innings, which I feel strongly about. The pitching matchup is lopsided between Framber Valdez and Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt is coming off a rough month of August, where he posted a 6.04 ERA with a .354 wOBA. He mainly throws a fastball and a sweeper, which are two pitches the Astros hit well. They’re one of the rare teams that hit sweepers well overall, with a combined .383 wOBA and a .334 ISO against that pitch through 171 plate appearances against righties. If he can’t fool this lineup with the two pitches he throws 55% of the time, it could be a short night for the Diamondbacks starter.
On the other side, Valdez continues to be one of the most reliable starters for the ‘Stros. He’s posted a dazzling 2.08 ERA with a .203 wOBA through 52 innings in the second-half. The Diamondbacks don’t have great numbers against lefties, as tonight’s expected lineup has a .311 wOBA with a .126 ISO against them. Valdez has been so good, he’s allowed a total of six earned runs over his last five starts. So for us to be getting the Astros to have the lead after five innings, I’ll happily take that at -115.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Padres team total over 4.5 -110
The Giants are essentially waving the white flag on the 2024 season. They’re 15.5 games out of the division and 7.5 out of a Wild Card spot. Mason Black will be starting for them tonight and it looks like a great spot for the Padres. Black has made five appearances this season and has allowed at least four runs in three of them. This has given him a 7.45 ERA with an xERA of 7.61 through 19.1 innings. Throwing a four seam fastball 38% of the time, eight of the nine Padres in tonight’s expected lineup has a .329 wOBA against it. This simply feels like a death trap for Black, whom I will be happily betting against with the Padres team total.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
