Over the past six months, we have glanced over thousands of headlines regarding fantasy football. We have Zapruder-film’dd five-second clips of players in shorts. We have entered hundreds of best ball drafts on DraftKings. We have correlated stacks with playoff schedules, with player exposures, with coaching changes. with regression analysis, and simulations that would make the mathiest of mathematicians nod in approval.
We have listened to countless podcasts and paid for YouTube Premium so that our favorite fantasy analyst isn’t rudely interrupted by an advertisement. We have an understanding of the best and worst offensive lines and the teams that will likely see a shift in their run/pass ratios. We have memorized all the opening Vegas lines and know which games have the highest over/unders.
Now it’s time, as Week 1 is finally here.
It can be a glorious time, because our convictions can be reaffirmed.
It can also be a humbling time, because our planted flags can get broken like toothpicks.
More often than not, we channel our inner Socrates and realize that we know nothing.
But, dark cannot exist without light. Evil without good. Tall without small. Therefore, there will be winners amongst the sea of losers.
Hopefully, I can provide some useful insight below that will help navigate the minefield that is Week 1 NFL DFS. May one of you bink.
There are 12 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has three games with an O/U of at least 45: ARI/BUF (47), JAX/MIA (49) and HOU/IND (48.5). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: LVR/LAC (40).
There are no double-digit spreads. The biggest favorite is CIN -8.5 over NEP. There are four games within a field goal: CLE -2.5 over dal, LAC -3 over LVR, min -1.5 over NYG and HOU -3 over IND. There are two home dogs: NYG and IND.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals ($8,000) – In 2021, the Bills were 15th in passing percentage at 59.21%. In 2022, that number was 59.44%, good for 11th. Last season, there was a philosophical shift, as that number went down to 53.53%, good for 27th in the NFL. Allen played 16 games in 2022 compared to 17 in 2021 and 2023. So, the raw total comparisons are 646 vs. 579 pass attempts and 36 vs. 29 passing touchdowns.
As for rushing, it was 122 vs. 111 rushing attempts but he scored a career-high 15 touchdowns last season vs. six in 2021. There will likely be some regression in that area, but despite the philosophical shift and decrease in overall counting stats, Allen is and will continue to be the Alpha and Omega of the Bills offense. He had 120 red zone opportunities. Only six other quarterbacks had at least 100. This game has a healthy total of 47 and Allen possesses one of the best floor/ceiling combos.
Other Options – Kyler Murray ($6,400), Anthony Richardson ($6,300)
Value
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks ($5,000) – Nix was selected with the 12th-overall pick by Sean Payton and the Broncos. He’s seasoned at 24y ears old, and having played five years in college. In his two seasons at Oregon, he completed 71.9% and 77.4% of his passes while rushing for 510 yards and 234 yards.
In the preseason, he played well, being efficient and showing command of the offense. Teammates have been heaping praise upon him while Payton named him a captain. Playing in Seattle for his first NFL game is challenging for sure, but he knows the area, is mature for a rookie, doesn’t hold onto the ball and is a threat on the ground. Those should all help mitigate the effects of a hostile crowd. In addition, the Seahawks have a new defensive coordinator, so it may take some time for that unit to gel.
Other Options – Caleb Williams ($5,900), Jayden Daniels ($5,700), Baker Mayfield ($5,600), Geno Smith ($5,500), Bryce Young ($5,200)
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Running Back
Stud
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,800) – I really like Kenneth Walker III as well, especially at $700 cheaper, but the siren call of Achane is too much for me to ignore. He was a hotly-debated player all offseason. Acquisition cost was one of the big reasons, as he was expensive and is the fifth-highest priced running back on this slate, but also due to usage. Achane is not a bell cow and competes with Mostert for touches. That said, Achane can take it to the house on any given play.
Last season, Achane put up at least 25 FPTS five times, with one of those a 54.3 explosion. In that game, he carried 18 times for 203 yards and scored twice. He also added four receptions for 30 yards and another two touchdowns. This is Achane’s second year in the league, he’s more comfortable now and the coaching staff has talked about putting more on his plate, including splitting him out wide or in the slot as a pass catcher. Last season, the Jaguars allowed the most receptions to running backs. This game has the highest total on the slate at 49.
Other Options – Jonathan Taylor ($7,800), Joe Mixon ($6,600), Raheem Mostert ($6,400), James Conner ($6,200), Kenneth Walker III ($6,100)
Value
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,500) – Both the Cowboys and Browns have good defenses. DK Sportsbook has this game with a 41 total, so expectations are for a low-scoring game. The Browns enter the season with the fourth-best offensive line according to PFF. Nick Chubb is out so Ford will be THE guy.
He had 22 red zone opportunites last season behind Kareem Hunt’s 39. Hunt is no longer on the team. Ford also had 63 targets so he should be on the field a lot. The matchup should be a good one. While the Cowboys have an awesome secondary, they are dealing with a plethora of injuries currently. In addition, multiple teams gashed them on the ground last season.
Other Options – Najee Harris ($5,600), Javonte Williams ($5,500), Chubba Hubbard ($5,300), Ray Davis ($4,500), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($8,700) – High game total? Check. Fast? Check. Good quarterback? Check. Great offensive coordinator? Check. Gets thrown the ball? Check. We know Hill is fast. We know Hill plays on one of the best offenses in the league.
We know he’s going to get thrown the ball. In 16 games last season, he got 171 targets. He had 11 games with at least ten and a high of 15. He scored double-digit FPTS in every game last season with six over 30 and a high of 47.5. We know his coach isn’t a dodo bird, and like Method Man, will keep feeding him and feeding him and feeding him. Don’t be a dodo bird.
Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($8,400), Mike Evans ($7,300), Nico Collins ($7,000), Chris Olave ($6,600)
Value
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($4,700) – Rome Odunze ($4,000) will likely be the player most click on down in this range. Currently, projected ownership is in the high-teens. I get it. That said, there’s a lot of target competition. The narrative all offseason has been about the Chargers becoming a run-heavy team. And I have no doubt that will be the case. That said, they are still going to throw some. For perspective, the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens threw the fewest number of passes per game last season at 29.1.
Many are acting as if the Chargers will be throwing 12 times a contest. Justin Herbert ($5,800) is a very good quarterback and there should be plenty of pockets in opposing defenses off play action. McConkey is an excellent route runner, is athletic and has drawn rave reviews from everyone over the offseason. In addition, the ownership will be miniscule and it wouldn’t surprise me if he outscores Odunze.
Other Options – Chris Godwin ($5,800), Terry McLaurin ($5,600), Tank Dell ($5,500), Diontae Johnson ($5,300), Josh Palmer ($5,200), Khalil Shakir ($5,100), Jackson Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Curtis Samuel ($4,900), Rashid Shaheed ($4,400), Rome Odunze ($4,000), Adonai Mitchell ($3,800), Jalen McMillan ($3,300)
Tight End
Stud
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins ($5,500) – Miami should score plenty of points in this one, so the Jaguars will likely have to be aggressive. Last season, Engram caught 114 of 143 targets for 963 yards and four touchdowns. The 143 targets were the 12th-most among all players, and first by a wide margin over the next tight end. The Dolphins allowed the fourth-most fantasy points on average to tight ends last season. One plus one equals two. Simple math.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($6,100), Dalton Kincaid ($5,800)
Value
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500) – Yeah, I like this game. The Dolphins didn’t utilize the tight end position much last season, as Durham Smythe led the group with 43 targets. But the evil genius Mike McDaniel is constantly cooking up something in the lab.
Over the offseason, he signed Smith to a two-year, $8.4 million deal. We don’t yet know how he will be utilized, but I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that he was brought on for a specific reason in mind. At 6-foot-2 and 248 pounds, Smith is a matchup nightmare due to the 4.62 40-yard dash he runs.
Other Options – Zach Ertz ($3,600)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Miami D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,200) – I should just move to Miami at this rate. I think the Dolphins are going to score points, which means the Jaguars will have to maintain aggression to keep pace. That should increase the number of opportunites for sacks and interceptions, which is all we can ask for.
Last season, the Dolphins defense was first in quarterback knockdowns, third in sacks, and third in pressure rate.
Other Options – Cleveland D/ST ($3,100)
Value
Denver D/ST at Seattle Seahawks ($2,500) – I am not too enamored with the lower-priced defenses, so riding the Broncos I am. I do think Denver will be better than most expect and it wouldn’t surprise me if the offense has success. That could get the Seattle offense out of their comfort zone.
Now, the offense should be much better with Ryan Grubb, but it’s a new system and could take some time to gel. Seattle enters the season with the 29th-best offensive line according to PFF. The Broncos blitzed at the fifth-highest rate last season.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
