After winning the previous two WNBA championships, the Las Vegas Aces remain in a viable position to potentially make it three in a row. However, after finishing first in the Western Conference each season since 2020, the Aces’ inability to go on a lengthy winning streak and play the standard we’re accustomed to seeing has caused their title odds to take a hit.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Aces are listed at +340 to win the WNBA title this season, trailing only the New York Liberty at +150. For reference, Las Vegas was at +180 on Aug. 23. Additional insight from the DraftKings research team indicates that the last time the Aces’ title odds were higher than they are now was on May 3, 2022, when they were +350.
The driving force behind the Aces’ contention outlook remains the stellar play of A’ja Wilson, who has averaged 27.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.9 steals, and 2.7 blocks through 33 games played. She remains a heavy favorite to win her third MVP award, but the team at large hasn’t managed to consistently uplift its impact in necessary ways.
“There’s getting numbers, and then there’s crushing numbers, and she crushes numbers right now,” Aces head coach Becky Hammon told reporters before Sunday’s 90-71 victory over the Chicago Sky. “And I just think (of) her consistency. She’s just consistent every day in her approach, what she gives to her teammates, what she gives to the game.”
Wilson’s impact, despite drawing heavy defensive attention, continues to impress Hammon, who was inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame last summer.
“With as many double teams and triple teams that she sees … I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player have more points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, then no turnovers,” Hammon said.
Despite Wilson’s dynamic contributions, the Aces rank fifth in the WNBA standings with a 21-12 record. The team has only gone 5-4 since returning from the Olympic break, ranking fifth in net rating (2.9) during this span. With a chance to three-peat, Las Vegas draws the benefit of the doubt that its execution will sharpen when the playoffs arrive.
“I told them that I feel like a lot of our frustration comes from being average,” Hammon said. “And now we’re building up a track record of being there for each other, and that’s really what I want to build on. The basketball stuff will happen.”
A recent microcosm of the Aces’ up-and-down season was a 93-90 loss against the Dallas Wings despite receiving a 42-point performance from Wilson. A decline in defensive results compared to recent seasons has held Las Vegas from achieving dominant results as a group. Since returning from the break, Las Vegas has produced a 101.7 defensive rating (7th), which is a further decline from the team’s 100.3 output (5th) prior. Regardless, the team’s messaging has portrayed that confidence is growing.
“We love being around each other, but it’s not that fun when you’re not winning basketball games and enjoying doing it on and off the court,” Aces guard Chelsea Gray said after the game. “We’re starting to feel that we have that intensity on the court so we can enjoy those moments.”
A possible challenge for the Aces will be the concession of homecourt advantage beyond the opening round of the playoffs against a higher seed. If the postseason began today, Las Vegas would host the Seattle Storm, but would begin a series on the road against the Liberty, Connecticut Sun, or Minnesota Lynx.
A few teams have been surging since returning from the lengthy break, with the most notable being the Indiana Fever, who clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2016. The production Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell has provided during this period has been as dynamic as it gets, leading the group to a 6-1 record entering Wednesday’s game against the Los Angeles Sparks. In addition to the Fever, the other teams with a better record than the Aces include the usual top-tier teams, including the Liberty, Lynx, and Sun.
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