The 2024 NFL season kicks off with an absolute doozy of a game with the Ravens vs. Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. These two powerhouse teams will meet for the first time since the AFC Championship, where the Chiefs edged the Ravens by a score of 17-10. With that in the past, we’ll focus on their Week 1 matchup and some of the bets you can take on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also check out all of our NFL content on DraftKings Network here.
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Ravens vs. Chiefs Game Total under 47 points -112
This total moved to 47 points late Wednesday afternoon, after sitting at 46.5 for quite some time. We continue to have this thought in our head that Chiefs games automatically mean high-scoring affairs. That simply hasn’t been the case for a couple of years now. Last season, the Chiefs were just 7-14 to the over, which was one of the worst records in the league. Even more so, the Chiefs were just 1-8 to the over as a home favorite, which is the scenario we have here. When these two teams met in the AFC Championship, the total sailed way under with just 27 total points and the line closing at 44.
The Ravens will enter this game with one of the leagues worst offensive lines. It’ll look much different from last year, aside from their center Tyler Linderbaum and tackle Ronnie Stanley. This could pose a major problem with a solid pass rush from the Chiefs. In the Conference Championship, the Chiefs had Lamar Jackson under pressure on 38% of his dropbacks. He completed just 4/10 pass attempts while taking four sacks. With the newly acquired Derrick Henry in the backfield, he’ll help control the ball but some early woes are expected.
While I’m not huge on historical trends, I can’t escape the thought of how low scoring these prime time games have been. After doing a bit of digging, my memory served correct, as the over has gone just 42-70-1 over the last two seasons of prime time games. That’s an absurd record. So, I’ll be riding with the under in the first game of the 2024 season.
Derrick Henry or Travis Kelce to score a touchdown +100
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Derrick Henry over 64.5 rushing yards –120
Another reason I like the under is because of the Ravens expected use of the run. It’s no secret the Ravens love to run the ball and last season they did so nearly 51% of the time. As you’d imagine, that was the highest in the league and was 3% more than the 49ers and Bears, who were tied for the second-most.
While the Chiefs were elite against the pass, they were torched on the ground. When you look at the total rushing yards allowed last season, it didn’t seem that bad. The 1,478 rushing yards were one of the lowest in the league, so what gives? Well, the Chiefs only faced 323 rushing attempts, one of the lowest in the league. So, when you break that down, it was an average of 4.5 yards per attempt. This sets up quite well for Henry to make his first impression as a Raven. Last season, he logged the second-most yards after contact in the league at 930, trailing only Christian McCaffrey. This 64.5 rushing yard total is a number he went over nine times of the 17 games he played. In an offense that wants to run as much as possible, Henry should thrive in Week 1.
Xavier Worthy longest reception over 21.5 yards -115
I know what you’re thinking. How the hell am I going to take a rookie, in his first game, to go over his longest reception total. Not only that, it’s the highest total in the game, even surpassing Zay Flowers at 20.5. Don’t fret, I have my reasons.
First and foremost, Worthy is going to be the WR2 in this game behind Rashee Rice. Marquise Brown has been ruled out of this game, bumping Worthy up for a prime role. In case you need a refresher, Worthy set an NFL Combine record with his 4.21 40-yard dash. The kid has ELITE speed. If the preseason was any indication, the Chiefs are going to use the kid deep. On six targets in Week 2 against the Lions, Worthy’s aDOT (average distance of target) was 17. If he sees those looks from Patrick Mahomes in this game against the Ravens, he could easily surpass this total of 21.5 yards.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
