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Let’s get into picks worth considering from the NFL’s first main slate, which features eight games.
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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Jacoby Brissett
Passing Yards: 203.5
Cincinnati doesn’t exactly have the most intimidating defense, but it’s no secret the Patriots are in a weird spot at quarterback. Drake Maye is the future, but the future isn’t here yet thanks to New England’s offensive line.
As a result, Brissett will have to fend for himself vs. the Bengals. When he last operated as an every week starter for 11 straight games in 2022 with the Browns, Brissett threw for more than 203.5 yards eight times. But, he also had a lot more talent surrounding him — and it’s not as though Brissett was crushing this number consistently either.
The play: LESS
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Alvin Kamara
Rush + Rec Yards: 86.5
Kamara wound up finishing with 87 or more total yards in seven of his 13 games played last season. Carolina was one of the opponents to hold him below this mark, but the Panthers still enter this season with one of the worst defenses in the league — if not the worst. While blowouts can be a reason to avoid some players on occasion, that shouldn’t apply to this game in Week 1. Especially with Kamara having a frustrating end to his 2023.
The play: MORE
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Anthony Richardson
Passing Yards: 224.5
Richardson got right up to 223 yards in his debut last season, but he couldn’t get those extra two yards. That was the closest he came to logging 225 yards in what was a limited 2023 campaign for the first-round pick. Houston got a brief look at Richardson last season, which should be enough for this stingy defense to prepare accordingly and limit him.
The play: LESS
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Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Will Levis
Passing Yards: 233.5
Chicago is always known for its defense. This year, that may change, but that won’t be because the Bears are ill-equipped on that side of the ball.
Last season wasn’t their best defensively, but the Bears did limit quarterbacks when playing at Soldier Field. In Chicago last season, opposing QBs only averaged 188 yards per game. Levis doesn’t need to put up that low of a total for this play to hit, but it wouldn’t hurt. Excluding his one abbreviated start in 2023, Levis threw for fewer than 233.5 passing yards in half his games last season.
The play: LESS
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Josh Allen
Passing Yards: 248.5
The Bills made some changes on offense, but this is still a number Allen can work with vs. Arizona. He finished with more than 248.5 passing yards in nine of 17 regular season games last season. Five of the times that he logged fewer than 248.5 yards came after Buffalo’s 12th game of the season, meaning he went 9-for-12 to MORE than 248.5 yards to open 2023.
The play: MORE
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
C.J. Stroud
Passing Yards: 277.5
Stroud only logged more than 277.5 passing yards in seven of 15 games last season, but each of those hits came in Houston’s first 11 games last season. On top of that, he now has Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to provide him with more options.
He’s also going up against Richardson, who was taken two picks after him in the 2023 draft. Last time these two squared off, Stroud made sure to make a statement, throwing for 384 yards in Week 2 last season.
The play: MORE
Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans
D’Andre Swift
Rushing Yards: 40.5
So long as Swift is healthy, this is a number he can comfortably handle. In 16 games played last season, he logged more than 40.5 yards 12 times. He did have a better line to work with in 2023, but he’s in position to get a healthy amount of touches.
Also, Swift’s Rush + Rec Yards amount is set at 57.5 despite his Rushing Yards amount being 40.5 and his Receiving Yards amount 10.5. There’s some potential value in the individual yardage plays.
The play: MORE
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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