The Western Conference rightfully has a reputation of being a gauntlet. There are many teams with impressive core groups already getting results.
Last season, the Oklahoma City Thunder finished first due to holding the tie-breaker over the Denver Nuggets as both teams finished 57-25. The Minnesota Timberwolves were in the mix, too, going 56-26, placing them one game back from first. Each of these teams has a strong outlook to finish with the top seed in the conference for the upcoming season.
Who will win the West during the 2024-25 season? Let’s investigate the teams with the top odds on DraftKings Sportsbook at this point.
Oklahoma City Thunder +165
There’s a lot to like about the Thunder’s outlook to outperform the rest of the Western Conference. The Thunder and the Boston Celtics were the only NBA teams to produce a top-five offense and defense last season. They’ve already proven to be a well-oiled machine in the regular season and seemingly improved by acquiring Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. A young team with a full offseason and postseason experience should have them in an even better position this upcoming season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains one of the top MVP candidates, setting the tone for the rest of the roster. He’s tied with Joel Embiid (+600) for the third-best MVP odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. With a talented supporting cast, there’s a lot to like here.
Chet Holmgren is entering his third season on paper, but it’ll be the second he’s actually played after being sidelined for what would have been his rookie campaign in 2022-23. He already displayed notable impact as a rim protector, with impressive timing on rotations and a fearless mentality to try to block shot attempts at the rim. His presence played an important role in Oklahoma City producing the NBA’s fourth-best defensive rating (111.0). Now, he has Caruso to contain on the perimeter, and Hartenstein in the frontcourt next to him. If Holmgren’s offensive game takes another step forward, this team might be scary.
Another X-factor for the Thunder is Jalen Williams, who averaged 19.1 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds last season. He struggled against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals but appears to have plenty of potential to reach further heights in his career. If Williams or Holmgren can take another step forward as a shot creator, it’d take some pressure off Gilgeous-Alexander and make them even more challenging for opposing teams to guard.
While some bring up inexperience as a downside to having a young team, Oklahoma City benefited from their key players often avoiding injuries. If that helps them again, it only adds to their outlook.
Minnesota Timberwolves +380
It took some time, but the Timberwolves figured out an impressive formula to succeed with Rudy Gobert alongside Karl-Anthony Towns in the frontcourt. Gobert’s rim protection raises the team’s floor as he did for the Utah Jazz, while Anthony Edwards and Towns provide dynamic results offensively.
Edwards tends to get better each season and with him coming off a Western Conference Finals run and having won a gold medal at the Paris Olympics, he seems poised to take an even greater step forward. Considering he averaged 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists last season, it’s easy to see why he is among the top dark-horse MVP candidates on DraftKings Sportsbook.
No team had a better defensive rating than the Timberwolves last season. They led the NBA in this category by a margin of 1.8 points per 100 possessions. Their offense was average, which held them back. Aside from Edwards reaching another level in his career, there wasn’t anything significant changed with the roster that suggests immediate improvement is inbound.
While there may be concerns about how the Timberwolves manage to keep their core intact long-term given the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the foundation remains for a highly successful regular season.
Denver Nuggets +400
If it wasn’t for a late letdown loss against the San Antonio Spurs, the Nuggets would have finished with the first seed in the Western Conference. However, failing to take care of business for one night against a rebuilding team with the supremely talented Victor Wembanyama resulted in finishing second.
Nikola Jokic is coming off his third MVP season and is already the preseason favorite to do it again, based on the latest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Any team that is lucky enough to have such a talented player is going to be a highly successful regular season squad as the Nuggets were last season.
The main consideration for the Nuggets tends to be the durability of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. They’ve each struggled with major injuries during their NBA careers. Given how thin the Nuggets appear to be, there is a possible downside to consider here. Murray is coming off a disappointing Olympic run with Canada despite playing next to many NBA talents, including Gilgeous-Alexander.
Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Orlando Magic in free agency will likely hurt the Nuggets. Denver is counting on young talents to replace him—namely Christian Braun. Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth even declared during a post-draft press conference that Denver will be “okay if KCP doesn’t return.” If Braun steps in and fills the starting role well, perhaps it won’t have much impact on the Nuggets’ outlook. In the meantime, it’s a factor to consider.
The main struggle the Nuggets tend to face is their inability to execute well without Jokic on the court. With Russell Westbrook added to the mix, the goal envisioned is for him to be a valuable playmaker and overall offensive engine to elevate the group when Jokic isn’t on the court. Despite being a net negative for the LA Clippers in their first-round playoff series against the Dallas Mavericks, he could still prove valuable in the regular season.
Dallas Mavericks +700
Coming off an NBA Finals run, the expectations will be high for the Mavericks. Dallas actually started off hot last season, but injuries piled up midseason and the team was 26-23 through 49 games. There was a point in time when the Mavericks had to deploy Dwight Powell as their starting center next to Grant Williams on the wing before later moving Williams to the bench in a role primarily slotting him in as a small ball center. They were not well-prepared to handle Dereck Lively II missing any games, particularly before trading for Daniel Gafford to add center depth.
Luka Doncic is once again considered one of the top MVP candidates entering the season, with +370 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. It’s hard to overlook a team with a superstar coming off a season averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds and being named to the All-NBA First-Team for five consecutive seasons. With the necessary talent around him, the expectations should be high.
After a series of midseason trades, including adding P.J. Washington and Gafford, the Mavs began to get hot. With multiple rim protectors and another reliable wing defender, Dallas emerged as one of the NBA’s best defensive groups to close the season. The Mavs rallied strongly to finish with a 50-32 record before eliminating three 50-win postseason opponents to reach the Finals. Before those midseason moves, Dallas was a bottom-10 defense, relying heavily on perimeter shooting to win games. That’s not the case anymore.
Mavericks icon Dirk Nowitzki recently floated a goal for the team to finish with a top-four record in the West to secure homecourt advantage for at least some portion of a lengthy postseason run. With a much more talented defensive group compared to what they deployed to start last season, their floor should be higher. Adding Klay Thompson to space the floor for Doncic, one of the NBA’s elite playmakers, will be a significant boost. However, one underrated pickup by Dallas was to bring back Spencer Dinwiddie as a late free-agency signing—insulating the team from the impact of a potential injury to Doncic or Irving.
Longshots to Consider
The next tier of teams include the Phoenix Suns (+2000), Memphis Grizzlies (+2000), Sacramento Kings (+2500), New Orleans Pelicans (+2800), Golden State Warriors (+3000), and Los Angeles Lakers (+4000). Among this group, only the Suns finished in the top six of the West, while the Pelicans and Lakers had to earn a playoff spot using the play-in tournament.
The Suns will benefit from having more time to build chemistry with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. It doesn’t hurt that Durant and Booker both spent a lot of time together with Team USA this summer either. Phoenix bolstered their point guard position by adding Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, both steady-handed facilitators. However, there are still questions about this team’s ability to execute defensively.
At the height of the Ja Morant era in Memphis, the team finished second in the West. He is set to be back after a combination of a lengthy NBA suspension and season-ending surgery. Perhaps the Grizzlies are worth some attention as an option. It’s fair to have some trust issues with this group after how injured they were throughout last season.
The Pelicans were busy making moves this summer by acquiring Dejounte Murray in a trade with the Atlanta Hawks. Brandon Ingram hasn’t been traded either. This team has a lot of talent but still faces questions at the center position after moving on from Jonas Valanciunas without a proven replacement. As always, a lot rides on Zion Williamson staying healthy.
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