We might be less than 48 hours away from the start of the NFL season, but that doesn’t mean the masses aren’t jonesing for some MLB picks on tonight’s full slate. At least I think that what’s the masses are jonesing for. I’m not exactly hip anymore.
Regardless, here are a couple bets on the diamond for Wednesday evening.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
On the surface, you might be questioning my ability to believe so strongly in Sears’ ability to rack up strikeouts. After all, the left-hander sits in just 18th percentile with his 18.5% strikeout rate this season. Well, the answer to that is two-fold. First and foremost, Sears has been a completely different pitcher in the past two months. Also, he happens to be facing the Mariners on Wednesday night.
Let’s start with the man himself. While Sears’ overall numbers might not turn any heads, his statistics since June 28 are a different story. Not only does the veteran possess a 3.19 ERA across those 11 outings, but he’s managed a far more respectable 22.7% strikeout rate within that span of time. It’s a stretch where Sears has collected at least five strikeouts in six of the 11 games he’s appeared.
Then there’s the matchup. The Mariners have been leading MLB in strikeout rate for a majority of 2024 and nothing about that pattern has changed in the last 30 days. To wit, Seattle owns the league’s highest strikeout rate (27.5%) and it’s lowest contact rate (72.5%) within that timeframe. Sears has already squared-off with the Mariners once this season. He struck out eight opponents in six innings. Considering what we know about Seattle’s swing and miss issues, I’d say that wasn’t a fluke.
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Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
I think I’ve just reached the point where an Arrighetti strikeout prop below 6.5 is an automatic bet — regardless of matchup. The rookie RHP has certainly made some headlines with huge strikeout performances in recent weeks, yet I’m not sure the general public is truly aware of how elite Arrighetti has been. Dating back to June 26, Arrighetti sports a 32.3% strikeout rate across 66.1 innings of work. In that same span, he’s racked up 86 strikeouts. For context, that’s the fifth-most in baseball, trailing only Chris Sale, Yusei Kikuchi, Carlos Rodon and Tarik Skubal. Pretty swell company to be keeping.
It’s also important to note that the Reds aren’t exactly the Padres when it comes to strikeout suppression. Over the last 30 days, Cincinnati has registered 23.1% strikeout rate as a team. For the season as a whole, the Reds’ 24.4% strikeout rate ranks eighth in MLB. There are definitely some holes in this lineup for Arrighetti to exploit.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
