Week 2 brings us a terrific slate of college football games. You can check out my full best bets article on DK Network here, but below I’m going to breakdown one of the games of the week — a big rivalry game between the Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa Moneyline (-135) vs. Iowa State
2.5-units
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
Iowa is a team that I’m high on this season, which put me on a play on the win total. I thought they looked tremendous in Week 1, despite Illinois State not being the toughest of tests. Iowa still nearly won by double the spread, and takes some momentum into a big Week 2 rivalry game. Let’s go over why I’m big on the Hawkeyes this week.
We know Iowa is elite on defense — the Hawkeyes pitched yet another shutout, and have Phil Steele’s No. 2 ranked defense heading into the season. Somehow, the Hawkeyes are being slept on yet again, returning 18 starters from a team that went 10-2 in the regular season, and was projected to get a boost offensively. We saw that projected boost come to life on Saturday, as Cade McNamara threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. That’s unthinkable production from the passing game compared to last year’s historically poor offense.
Iowa State is obviously a much tougher task than last week, as the Cyclones also return close to a full starting unit. But with both rosters back nearly in full, this feels pretty close to a rematch of last season’s rivalry game between these two — which Iowa won 20-13 at a 3-point road dog. Now, with home field and a much more capable offense, I think the Hawkeyes are priced extremely short in this one.
Iowa State was a bit underwhelming in its opener, getting by North Dakota 21-3. It was a clear lookahead spot to this week’s game, but scoring 21 points at home against North Dakota isn’t very encouraging when you now have to go on the road and face one of the elite defenses in the country. The Cyclones are also looking very thin at linebacker, where they have some key injuries, and will have to lean on backups. Expect Iowa to be able to exploit those matchups, both on the ground and through some mismatches in the passing game.
The under should also be a popular play in this one. I’m probably going to pass on it, with the total sinking to 35. However, four of the last five matchups in this rivalry have seen 35 points or less. Slight lean to the under but give me the Hawkeyes to hold the Cyclones to a very low number on the scoreboard, while the offense rips off a couple big plays to win it.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
