Week 1 of the NFL season has arrived, and the slate is loaded with great games spanning over a five-day period. Not only do we get the classic Thursday night kickoff, but also a primetime game in Brazil on Friday night. Let’s breakdown some of my favorite plays on DraftKings Sportsbook for this card, which I’ll be adding to throughout the week. I admittedly haven’t had a chance to fully dig into the player prop card with all the college football action going on, so there could be some adds coming there, with a couple of spots already circled.
Chiefs Moneyline (-150) vs. Ravens
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We have a terrific one to get the season underway on TNF, with a rematch of the AFC Championship game. While I understand the Baltimore revenge angle, going against this Chiefs squad feels like a mistake. Yes, some of you might remember them losing the Thursday game in Week 1 last season as the defending Super Bowl Champs, but there were a lot of moving parts there. Kansas City lost that one 21-20 in a game that Travis Kelce was out, and Kadarius Toney essentially handed a reception over to the Lions for a touchdown the other way.
This time around, the offense is fully healthy, and has added some nice weapons to help Patrick Mahomes in the receiving game. Not that Mahomes needed help figuring things out anyway, but I do expect the offense to be further along out of the gate than it was last season. Not to mention, Kansas City might be the best defense in the NFL.
Prior to last season’s flukey result in the opener, Mahomes was 5-0 in Week 1 with an average margin of victory of 13 points. And if we want to go deeper, the 2023 opener was the first time Andy Reid lost an open with Kansas City since 2014. You’ll hear plenty of trends pointing to backing Lamar Jackson as an underdog this week, but the fact of the matter is that the arrow is pointing down on the Ravens in 2024.
6-Point Teaser: Packers +9/Bengals -2.5 (-120)
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6-Point Teaser: Colts +8.5/Bengals -2.5 (-120)
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The Bengals are going to be a mighty popular teaser leg this week, especially since ticking down to 8.5 on the spread and giving us the ability to get under a field goal. I trust the spot, though, and am doubling down on it with a pair of my favorite underdogs.
Let’s start on Friday with the Packers, who go up against a very hyped Eagles team. Bettors are confidently backing the Eagles to bounce-back this season, following a dreadful 1-6 finish to 2023, concluding with a 32-9 postseason loss in Tampa. Bettors like the Eagles on Friday, as well as the win total over for the season and to win the division. I don’t see where all this love is coming from.
By season’s end, the Eagles were ranked 30th in the NFL in points allowed. The secondary was a complete mess, and the offensive line was broken. I disagree with the argument that major improvements were made on those two crucial units. The offensive line has its health now, which will help, but losses an anchor with the retirement of Jason Kelce.
As for the secondary, sure, Philly used its first two draft picks on cornerbacks. But that’s supposed to lead to immediate improvement? Both rookie corners will need to be ready to make plays right away, as the guys that were there last season came undone. Then we get the recent news that James Bradberry is going to be out longterm, taking a crucial piece out of the secondary.
Enter a Green Bay team that really grew up down the stretch last season, and has a slew of receivers that you need to worry about. This feels like a bad matchup for the Eagles, who only won three of their 11 wins last season by more than eight points. That means if you teased Philly’s opponent to +8.5 or better last season, that teaser leg went 15-3.
The Colts make for a pretty sharp side in Week 1. The Texans were a terrific story last season, but now they are coming in with a ton of hype. Houston is one of the most bet teams in futures markets, and the most public bet in Week 1. With all the money Houston is taking, this game continues to resist moving to Colts +3, and when it does, there is immediate resistance.
With Anthony Richardson back on the field and joining a scrappy Colts team, I think this is a potential upset spot in Week 1. Getting Indy up through all the key numbers to +8.5 feels like a very strong teaser leg. The Colts played Houston tough last season, winning by 11 on the road in Week 2, and then dropping the home game for a playoff spot in a very close game by four points. Nice little revenge spot for that Week 18 game here.
I’m not sure what type of analysis I need to add to get you to buy in on the Bengals. We’re getting a little discount this week with the Ja’Marr Chase holdout, but I’m expecting him to be on the field. I watched all three of New England’s preseason games. At times, the starters were having trouble against second and third units.
This offensive line for the Patriots is a complete embarrassment, and their two best defensive players entering the season are no longer there. Matthew Judon was traded to Atlanta, and Christian Baremore is on IR, leaving what had the potential to be a solid defense very thin. It’s tough to see how the Patriots have the firepower to keep up with anyone right now, particularly Joe Burrow and company on the road.
Browns Moneyline (-130) vs. Cowboys
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The Cowboys led the NFL in points per game last season, but the numbers were completely skewed. Dallas put up 36.8 points when playing at home, but dropped to 23.3 in road games. Let’s take that even further, looking at Dallas playing outdoors against quality competition in 2023 — 10 points at the Niners, 23 points in Philly, 10 points in Buffalo and 20 points in Miami.
The Cowboys are doing a bit of rebuilding on the offensive line, using a pair of washed up running backs, and Cee Dee Lamb might have some catching up to do after his very late arrival to camp following a holdout. That’s not a good combination going on the road to Cleveland to face a defense that allowed an NFL-best 13.9 points at home last season.
Dallas’ defense was a mess down the stretch last season, and didn’t do anything to get better. Micah Parsons is an elite talent, but it’s tough to find anyone beyond him that should cause any issues for Cleveland. The secondary likely got much worse for the Cowboys, who are working Trevon Diggs back from a torn ACL, and now will be without DaRon Bland — who was an All-Pro last season and just underwent foot surgery.
The Browns add Jerry Jeudy opposite Amari Cooper, creating some more pop in the passing game. Look for the Browns to find a way to make some plays down field, while the Cowboys struggle to keep up on the road.
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