The NBA regular season isn’t set to tipoff until late October, but there are already many intriguing NBA futures betting options on DraftKings Sportsbook to consider. One of the available formats involves betting on who will lead the league in points per game.
Last season, the NBA saw four players score over 30 points per game, including Joel Embiid (34.7), Luka Doncic (33.9), Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.1). However, Embiid missed 43 games, making him ineligible for the league leaderboard. As a result, Dončić was crowned the scoring champion. The Slovenian superstar was the youngest player at 25 to lead the league in this category since Kevin Durant in 2013-14 when he averaged 32.0 points per game.
Who could potentially lead the NBA in scoring during the 2024-25 season? Let’s investigate the players with the top odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks +130
Doncic led the league in scoring despite being the most blitzed player in the NBA. He took the most field goal attempts (23.6 per game), trailed only Stephen Curry in 3-point attempts per game (10.6), and his average of 8.7 free throw attempts ranked first among guards and third overall. It’s difficult to envision he won’t have a similar set of circumstances again.
At 6-foot-7, Doncic’s combination of scoring and passing while playing at his own pace presents nightmares for any defense. Factor in his lethal step-back jumper, crafty footwork on drives (especially his signature slow-step finish), ability to punish smaller guards in the post, continually improving use of crafty counters in short-range for jumpers, and floater touch, and it’s clear to see that he’s a big problem without a simple solution. He can pass over double teams, has become a technician with no-look passes, and has an uncanny talent for throwing lobs and full-court throw-ahead passes. He’s a walking triple-double machine for these reasons, including being one of the top guard rebounders in the league. It’s no wonder the Slovenian superstar’s MVP odds (+370) trails only Nikola Jokić (+350) on DraftKings Sportsbook. After earning five consecutive All-NBA First-Team nods, perhaps Doncic is due for an MVP.
Nobody had more games with 40 or more points than Doncic, who finished with 13. His 73-point performance against the Atlanta Hawks was the highest-scoring performance last season, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain and Kobe Bryant for the fourth-highest scoring game in NBA history. The key appears to be the single-season career-best 38.2% he shot from the perimeter while being such a high volume shooter, helping to further open up his whole offensive game. With a rare few months of offseason due to Slovenia not qualifying for the Olympics, Doncic should be well rested before the NBA season.
The Mavericks’ offense has the necessary talent to make life easy enough for Doncic to maintain a dominant scoring output. He has a reliable secondary option to strike fear in the defense in Kyrie Irving. The backcourt partnership is entering its second full season together. However, a contrast will be the presence of Klay Thompson on the wing instead of an underwhelming shooting threat like Derrick Jones Jr. With elite lob threats like Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford at Doncic’s disposal, the added shooting in the supporting cast should open up driving lanes more. The threat of Doncic leveraging all of this talent with his passing should only make scoring easier.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers +290
Not playing at least 65 games prevented Embiid from potentially being the scoring champion for a third consecutive season—a feat last achieved by James Harden during his time with the Houston Rockets. Naturally, a few questions surround Embiid’s outlook as a potential scoring champion in 2025. Firstly, will he manage to stay healthy enough to play the necessary games to earn the honor? If the answer is no, then nothing else matters.
If Embiid does log enough games played, will the 76ers’ free agency addition of Paul George result in a slight enough decline in scoring to prevent a first-place finish? Embiid will continue to be heavily featured as a dominant isolation and post scoring talent. His face-up game while being such a powerful threat in the paint makes it daunting to contain him inside the three-point line. His general combination of size and skill enables him to obliterate bad defensive teams that deploy undersized centers, making for some truly explosive displays on a run-of-the-mill Tuesday night NBA slate in January. George’s shooting gravity should only open up simpler sequences for Embiid to score at times, too.
The 76ers were content with reducing Tobias Harris’ role, but George will naturally hold high expectations for his opportunities in the offense. Tyrese Maxey may be ready to take another step in his development as well. Maxey already ranked 13th in points per game (25.9) in the NBA last season, while George’s output of 22.6 points per game ranked 31st. It’s easy to see why the Sixers hold +850 odds to win the championship on DraftKings Sportsbook, trailing only the Boston Celtics (+295) and Oklahoma City Thunder (+700). As far as Embiid’s outlook is concerned, with this kind of firepower surrounding him, it’s difficult to envision him continuing to have quite as high of a usage rate as the 38.7% figure he had last season.
Philadelphia has enough talent to be conscious about pacing Embiid in the regular season more. But is he simply too dominant to deny? If you’re confident George will be the player who sacrifices in the offense while Embiid continues to have such a heavy workload, this is a favorable option. Of course, as long as you are willing to bet that Embiid will play enough games to do it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder +450
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander produced a remarkable season for the Oklahoma City Thunder and finished as the top-runner up for MVP behind Nikola Jokic. He averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds, while appearing in 75 of the team’s 82 regular season games. He reached the 30-point threshold in 51 of his performances, and had 35 or more points 17 times. His consistency was remarkable and is why he has +600 odds to win MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook.
What holds back Gilgeous-Alexander as a candidate to lead the NBA in scoring for this season is his lack of dominant scoring nights. The most he scored in a single game last season was 43 points on two occasions. He scored exactly 40 points in his four remaining performances that hit the 40-point threshold. With other top scorers like Doncic, Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounpo each ending five or more games with 45 or more points, there’s somewhat of a limited ceiling on Gilgeous-Alexander. That is, unless he manages to dial up his aggression against vulnerable opponents or just has it going in a tight game and dictates the game with his scoring.
The offseason moves the Thunder made this summer should not impact Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring volume. Oklahoma City added complementary talents like Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, who actually could make it easier to score in the half-court. Their elite defense should only improve as well.
The biggest factor in this situation is the trade that swapped out Josh Giddey for Caruso. The Thunder seemingly felt compelled to involve Giddey in the offense as a secondary ball handler, but he compromised the team’s floor spacing. Caruso is there to hit open shots, make simple plays within the flow of the offense, and do the dirty work. A talent as dynamic at attacking the paint like Gilgeous-Alexander could become even more effective in Giddey’s absence. He already led the NBA in drives per game (23.3) and might have even better circumstances to do it again during the upcoming season.
Similar to Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander has cemented himself as an elite pick-and-roll and isolation threat, but does do more of his work in transition. The Thunder superstar has an uncanny ability to change directions mid-drive, has developed a lethal short-range jump shooting arsenal, and is a highly efficient finisher who gets to the free throw line often. There’s a lot to like about how he gets the job done. However, unlike Doncic, Gilgeous-Alexander is a much lower volume three-point shooter. Despite a period in which he averaged a combined 5.1 attempts per game from 2020-21 to 2021-22, his volume has declined. Gilgeous-Alexander took an average of 3.6 three-point shots last season while converting at a 35.3% clip.
Until Gilgeous-Alexander starts taking more three-pointers, it’s naturally more challenging to reach that next plane for scoring volume. That tends to be the reality that guards face in today’s NBA.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks +600
Trailing only Embiid and Doncic in usage rate, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains one of the most reliable high-volume scoring threats in the NBA. The near seven-foot point forward averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in 73 games played last season. He also shot a staggering 61.1% from the floor while leading the league in made two-point field goals per game with 11.0. He was joined by Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, and Jarrett Allen as the only players to shoot above 60.0% while averaging at least 10 two-point field goal attempts per game.
The Milwaukee Bucks did not make any meaningful roster changes that could negatively impact Antetokounmpo’s scoring production. He still has Damian Lillard to provide the type of pull-up shooting gravity that opens up the rest of the offense. However, his most frequent play type by far was transition, where he tends to put defenders in a position to make a “business decision” to get out of his way instead of trying to block him at the rim or take a charge.
What makes Antetokounmpo’s scoring profile so interesting is how diverse he is at getting the job done. He’s able to mix in attacking from around the half-court in isolation, pick-and-roll, and in the post with the ball in his hands to make a play. Meanwhile, he can also be a play-finisher as a cutter and rim roller within the flow of the offense or by design in a set. With his combination of size and athleticism, he tends to get where he wants on the floor while often putting the defense at risk of fouling him. The main strategy against him is to pack the paint with a crowd of defenders and sag off of him to dare him to shoot. His jump shot still hasn’t reached a level where it’s worth contemplating otherwise.
While Antetokounmpo is such a dominant force in the paint, there are factors that may continue to narrowly limit his scoring production when compared to other candidates. Similar to the comparison between Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander, Embiid produces a higher scoring volume than Antetokounmpo partly due to shooting 38.8% from the perimeter on 3.6 attempts per game. Antetokounmpo only took an average of 1.7 shots from deep last season and shot only 27.4%. It doesn’t help that while Antetokounpmo’s average of 10.7 free throw attempts per game trailed only Embiid’s 11.6 per game, the 76ers superstar shot 88.3% compared to the 65.7% by the “Greek Freak.”
Honorable Mentions
The rest of the options have a significant drop-off in betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook in comparison to Doncic, Embiid, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Antetokounmpo. Trae Young ranks fifth with +4,000 odds. Other talents like Donovan Mitchell (+6,000), Anthony Edwards (+6,000), Stephen Curry (+7,000), Nikola Jokić (+7,000), Kevin Durant (7,000), and Jalen Brunson (+7,000) make up the next tier.
Without Dejounte Murray in Atlanta, Young will likely get as many shot attempts as he could ever want. The main struggle will be the lack of a secondary threat on the court to command defensive attention since most of the Hawks’ supporting cast is complementary players who lack shot creation ability. It’s a significant reason why Atlanta’s over/under for playoff seeding is set at 9.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Edwards certainly could be leaned on heavily to score more in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ offense, but he has yet to emerge as an efficient enough scorer to rival the league’s best. Could that come this season? If you think he’s ready after helping Team USA win a gold medal at the Paris Olympics, the odds are favorable to place a bet on DraftKings Sportsbook. While Edwards’ jump shot could benefit from improvement, Donovan Mitchell being undersized limits his scoring efficiency in different ways. Regardless, they are both next up after Young in odds.
Jokić doesn’t tend to score aggressively enough given how he likes to exploit defenses with his passing. Durant and Curry have previously led the NBA in scoring, but being in the later stage of their career, pacing themselves for longevity to contend for a championship seems to be the goal instead of gunning for being the scoring champion.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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