Two teams that were almost clones of each other last season both replaced their Heisman-winning quarterbacks this offseason. Now, they face each other to start the 2024 season. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
LSU (+4) @ USC o/u 64.5 (Neutral Site: Las Vegas, NV)
The last two Heisman Trophy winners, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, both left their respective schools this offseason. Both schools also are replacing their past QBs with last season’s backup rather than hitting the transfer portal. Another similarity between these two programs is the problems that they had on defense last season. Both defenses finished outside the top 100 in total defense in 2023 and both teams brought in new defensive coordinators to try to fix those issues. The team that did the most to improve on that side of the ball should win this game.
LSU Team Breakdown
Last season’s LSU team was a tale of two different performances on each side of the ball. Jayden Daniels won the Heisman and Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. were both first-round NFL draft picks at wide receiver. However, on the defensive side of the ball, they were atrocious. The Tigers’ defense finished 110th in total defense and gave up 30+ points in eight of their ten games against Power Five opponents.
LSU has to replace a ton of talent on offense this season. Last year’s backup QB, Garrett Nussmeier, is taking the reigns of the offense. He has a decent amount of experience with multiple starts under his belt and Brian Kelly has a lot of faith in what he can do. At wide receiver, they have some good talent coming up, but it is impossible to replace what they had last year.
On defense, they hired Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker away from Missouri to fix their issues. Baker is thought of very highly, but he will struggle to turn this LSU defense around right away. Missouri was in the middle of the pack, nationally, when it came to red zone defense last season, allowing opponents to score on 83% of red zone trips. That was also LSU’s biggest weakness last season, so Baker may not be the right guy to fix their problems.
Overall, this LSU team should look somewhat similar to last year’s team. The defense should improve a bit, but the offense will also be a bit worse.
USC Team Breakdown
USC did a great job with their coaching hires on the defensive side of the ball. D’Anton Lynn dramatically improved a really bad UCLA defense last season and was brought in this offseason to do the same to USC. USC also hired former North Dakota State Head Coach Matt Entz to coach the linebackers. This defense is full of talent when it comes to how the players were rated out of high school. However, former DC Alex Grinch did a really poor coaching job the past few seasons for Lincoln Riley and the new coaching hires should immediately boost this defense.
Caleb Williams is one of the best college quarterbacks we have ever seen. He is nearly impossible to replace, but Lincoln Riley is incredibly high on new QB Miller Moss. Moss backed up Caleb Williams last season and started the bowl game for USC against Louisville last season where Moss threw for six touchdowns and looked fantastic. Moss is an ideal fit for a Lincoln Riley offense, plus Riley is one of the best quarterback developers in all of football.
Moss should have a massive season with weapons like WR Zachariah Branch available to him. If the defense can improve to just a national average, this USC team should be a sleeper in the Big Ten.
USC vs. LSU Prediction and Pick
Between the two defenses, USC should be the more improved unit because of the hires they made on that side of the ball. Also, between the two quarterbacks, Miller Moss has a much higher ceiling than Garrett Nussmeier. On top of all that, this isn’t a home game for USC, but it is a short trip to Las Vegas for USC and their fans while LSU has to travel across the country and adjust to Pacific Time.
Both teams should have success on offense, but Miller Moss is the quarterback that is less likely to make a key mistake. Lincoln Riley is also one of the best offensive coaches in college football and should have some creative plays ready involving Zachariah Branch, one of the most electric players in the country. D’Anton Lynn is also the more trustworthy defensive coach when it comes to making adjustments at halftime to combat the opposing offense.
Ultimately, USC has advantages across the board. Their quarterback, offensive coaches and defensive coaches are all better than what LSU has to offer. I am betting on the Trojans to cover the spread (+4) and they have a really good chance to win this game outright.
Best Bet: USC +4
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