The 2024 NFL season will mark an era of change for the Minnesota Vikings. The organization moved on from Kirk Cousins after he spent the past six seasons in Minnesota. The 36-year-old led the organization to a 50-37-1 record during the games that he played, but suffered a torn Achilles last season. He’ll now be suiting up for the Atlanta Falcons.
Unfortunately, there is not the usual amount of hype surrounding the team. After spending the tenth-overall pick in the NFL Draft on J.J. McCarthy, the Michigan product suffered a torn meniscus in preseason. He’ll be held out for the entirety of his rookie season.
Sam Darnold is set to serve as the starting quarterback for the team and will be looking to revitalize his NFL career. Justin Jefferson will provide as high of a floor as a quarterback could ask for, but there are plenty of other questions with the team.
Minnesota is tied for the 20th-best odds to win it all at +8000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have the 11th-best odds to win the NFC at +4000, hold +1100 odds to win the NFC North, and +300 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Vikings’ season-long win total is 6.5 games, with the over favored at -140 odds.
Minnesota Vikings Under 2.5 Divisional Wins (-135)
The Vikings enter this season with +1100 odds to win the NFC North, making them the biggest longshot by a significant margin. The Detroit Lions are considered the favorites at +130 odds. Neither the Green Bay Packers (+230) nor the Chicago Bears (+280) are far behind.
When looking at the season-long win totals, the Detroit Lions hold an over/under of 10. 5 wins while both the Packers and Bears are at 9.5. In contrast, the Vikings hold a season-long total of just 6.5 on the year.
Each of their three divisional rivals will have a clearer path to the playoffs than Minnesota. With the race being so competitive in the division, don’t expect these teams to take any game for granted.
This season-long win total of 6.5 wins also feels a bit optimistic when evaluating the Vikings. Sam Darnold has plenty to prove this year but not a strong track record to show for. After being drafted as the 3rd overall pick in the 2018 draft, Darnold has had stints as the starting quarterback for the Jets and Panthers before serving last season on the 49ers roster.
In his 56-game career as a starter, Darnold holds a quarterback record of just 21-35. He has never played more than 13 games in a season, and will be looking to change his reputation a great deal this year. It will take a productive year from Darnold for Minnesota to have any success.
Last year’s Vikings defense did not crack the top ten for points allowed, yards allowed, or turnovers forced. While there are defenses worse than what we’ll see in Minnesota, they should not be counted on to lead the team to much success.
With three playoff contenders in the division and some significant concerns internally, count on the Vikings to fail to produce over 2.5 divisional wins. The Packers, Bears, and Lions each have a chance to sweep the season series 2-0. Splitting with each team would be a massive win for Minnesota. Don’t expect this to be the case.
Justin Jefferson Over 94.5 Receptions (-110 odds)
The lifeblood of the Vikings is still sure to be Justin Jefferson. The three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver and former Offensive Player of the Year has rapidly ascended to one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL.
In his four seasons in the NFL thus far, Jefferson has yet to finish a season with under 1,000 yards receiving. Last year was his least successful season, as the LSU product finished with 1,074 receiving yards and five touchdowns. It also should be noted that he played just ten games and still managed to put up this production.
All the above also included, at times, the hurdle of having Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall suiting up at quarterback .
The questions around Sam Darnold prevent me from taking Jefferson’s 1,300.5 season-long receiving yard line. Even still, Jefferson is the team’s most dynamic and dependable offensive weapon. Expect the team to game plan to get creative in getting the ball in his hands as often as possible.
The All-Pro has eclipsed the 94.5 reception mark in two of his four NFL seasons. He can be counted on to do the same this year. He has played all 17 games twice, and recorded 108 and 128 receptions these two years. It may occur more in the screen- or short-passing game than in years past, but a catch is still a catch.
Expect the Vikings to look at Jefferson as the driving force of their offense, and for the team to make a conscious effort to force-feed him the ball. He may not be as productive in the opportunities as we have seen in past years, but that’s fine. Don’t expect the 25-year-old to have any issues clearing the 94.5 reception mark as long as he stays healthy.
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