We’ve got a fantastic slate of college football games to bet over Labor Day Weekend on DraftKings Sportsbook. One of the premier matchups of the weekend is being saved for Sunday night in Las Vegas, when the Tigers face the Trojans. Let’s breakdown the game.
LSU/USC OVER 64 (-108)
I played this one at the opener when the total was 62 for 1-unit, but I still like it at 64, and believe there are also some other betting angles in this game. Money has pounded the over in this matchup, with 81% of the bets for 84% of the handle going that way, as of August 30.
The handicap is pretty simple on the surface — these were elite offensive teams last season that hardly played any defense. LSU led the SEC in scoring by over five points per game, averaging 45.5 PPG. Meanwhile, only Vanderbilt allowed more points, with LSU ranking 13th in defense — 28 PPG allowed. The Tigers were an insane 12-1 to the over in 2023, and the only game that stayed under was with a total of 75 against Georgia State — LSU still scored 56 in the game. LSU was a perfect 8-0 to the over in games last season when the total was in the 60’s.
Then there’s USC, which averaged 41.8 points in 2023, finishing 10-3 to the over. The Trojans scored 42 or more points on their own in nine games, despite the disappointing 8-5 record. The defense was all-time bad, giving up just shy of 40 points per game over the last 10 games of the season.
Of course, we can’t project any of these offenses or defenses to be quite as extreme as they were last year. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels were playing QB for USC and LSU, respectively, and the last two Heisman Trophy winners were the top-two picks in the NFL Draft. Both teams have also made changes on defense, and it’s hard to imagine anything getting any worse.
That said, the drop off to Garrett Nussmeier and Miller Moss might not be as significant as you’d think. Both are high-level QBs, and Moss actually put up 42 points in a Bowl Game against a solid Louisville defense that allowed just 21.3 PPG over the course of the season. I feel there’s a lot more reasons to think these offenses can at least be close to what they were last season, particularly USC, which might not miss a beat.
That puts me on the game over here, but I also lean to the Trojans in the game. We saw a sharp move down from +6 to +4 over a week before kick, and if I were playing it now it would be USC on the moneyline. As I mentioned, I also have more faith in the Trojans being able to maintain the caliber offense they had last season, so I’d also consider taking a look at USC’s team total over 29.5 (-120).
Let’s hope for some fireworks on Sunday night in Vegas.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
