Despite the SEC’s dominance over the college football landscape for over a decade, the Big Ten’s western expansion has put them in the conversation for the game’s marquee conference.
Big Ten College Football Betting Preview
With the introduction of the 12-team playoff, more programs than ever have a shot at competing for glory. Factor in that we’re in the midst of the transfer portal era, and there has never been a better time to expect the unexpected. I analyzed all the wild schedules and rebuilt rosters to develop my best plays for this upcoming season.
For a quick overview, here are the Big Ten teams with the best odds to win the conference at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Reigning Champions
Michigan Wolverines (+700 to win Big Ten)
In 2023, Michigan reached the pinnacle of the college football landscape, but a return atop the mountain seems inconceivable.
It starts at the top, with Jim Harbaugh leaving his alma mater to chase NFL glory. His successor, Sherrone Moore, had a spotless run with the former boss suspended last season, which included a dramatic victory against Ohio State. Taking over a championship-level roster for a month is not the same as running the show for the foreseeable future. The case for the maize and blue is that Moore isn’t starting from ground zero, either.
The Wolverine’s identity will still be relentless defense, which helps with three bona fide first-round talents on that side of the ball. Will Johnson will likely be the first cornerback off the board in April and has all the athletic traits to match up with elite wideouts. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are a dominant defensive line pairing capable of wreaking havoc.
Without Harbaugh, this group would no longer be above losing a random trap game, and the offense wouldn’t be able to reach the gear needed to compete at a high level. I foresee a down year for Michigan.
Best Bet: Michigan under nine wins: (-145)
The Favorites
Ohio State (+155 to win Big Ten)
A plethora of returning starters and a loaded transfer portal class have Ohio State as an obvious contender on paper. I see the vision, but there are a few hidden red flags.
Defensively, it’s hard to imagine that the Buckeyes aren’t a force. Nearly the entire front seven and secondary are returning to Columbus. In 2023, the unit was second in points per game allowed and third in yards per game allowed. Factor in the addition of former Alabama safety Caleb Downs, and the signs point to that bunch being special. Like their rival to the north, I’m unsure what to make of the offense.
Former Ole Miss superstar Quinshon Judkins jumped ship to form a premier backfield committee next to senior TreVeyon Henderson. Emeka Egbuka slots right in as the latest Buckeye to be the best pass catcher in the sport. Even Chip Kelly took a demotion to join the fun and call plays for this group. Everything seems perfect.
The concern starts at quarterback. After a middling season from Kyle McCord, the Buckeyes have turned to former Kansas State signal caller Will Howard. Wildcat’s coach, Chris Klieman, has suggested Howard wouldn’t have even been his team’s starter this season because of the emergence of sophomore Avery Johnson.
Ryan Day has been dominant against non-Michigan Big Ten sides, but the landscape has shifted. The conference has never been more profound, and Ohio State no longer has the luxury to sleepwalk through the season’s first two months.
Even with an inconsistent offense, this crew is too experienced not to at least reach the playoff.
Best Bet: Ohio State exactly 11 wins (+190)
The New Kid on the Block
Oregon Ducks (+200 to win Big Ten)
Despite losing Heisman Finalist Bo Nix to the NFL, Dan Lanning might have his most stacked Oregon squad since coming to Eugene.
It helps to have more weapons than an armory on offense. Wide receiver Tez Johnson returns after an impressive breakout season but might not even be the most talented player in his position room. Evan Stewart comes in as the highest-ranked pass catcher ever to play for the Ducks after departing from Texas A&M. Even the backfield is loaded, as Jordan James and Noah Whittington are both Doak Walker Award candidates.
The Ducks always have an elite offense, but Lanning is a defensive coach, and this is his best group to date. Jabarr Muhammad left Washington during its recent mass exodus, and one of the premier corners in the country lines up across the veteran Dontae Manning. This secondary will be difficult to pick apart, and opposing QBs won’t have much time with Jeffery Bassa and Jordan Burch chasing them down.
Dillon Gabriel needs to prove his weird season at Oklahoma had more to do with the Sooners in a transition than an indictment of his abilities. The spread option offense should help mask any lingering flaws in his game. Oregon is a National Title contender.
Best Bet: Oregon to go undefeated in the regular season (+300)
The Other Contenders
Penn State (+500 to win Big Ten)
No one’s perception benefits more from an expanded playoff than James Franklin. The Nittany Lions can never seem to get over the hump, and the likes of Oregon and USC joining the fray don’t exactly help their chances.
Quarterback Drew Allar is a genetic prototype to play the position, but his dazzling stats don’t match his inability to push the ball beyond the line of scrimmage against viable competition. Pair that with shaky coaching, and you have a team destined to fall short of expectations yet again.
Best Bet: Penn State to miss the playoff (+110)
USC (+2000 to win Big Ten)
Lincoln Riley enters his second year leading the Trojans, hoping for a step-up in production from both lines of scrimmage. Caleb Williams was making magic from a constantly collapsing pocket, and the USC defense struggled just to wrap up and make fundamental tackles.
Miller Moss takes over at quarterback, who has been impressive in limited action. Behind a more experienced offensive line, there’s no reason he can’t be the latest Riley disciple to take the country by storm.
With defensive coordinator Alex Grinch getting the hook and a rebuilt unit, if the group improves at all from last season, USC has a chance for a successful 2024 campaign. They avoid Ohio State and Oregon on the slate and square off with Notre Dame and Penn State at home. Watch out for a bounceback year in Los Angeles.
Best Bet: USC to make the playoff (+400)
My Pick: Ohio State
I expect the Ducks to knock off the Buckeyes when they travel to Autzen Stadium, but Ryan Day to get revenge on a neutral field.
