The biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year is upon us, and here at DK Network, we’re all about winning. DFS, futures bets, and even season-long fantasy football—you name it. We’re in the business of helping champions get crowned across the board.
With that in mind, I’ve gone ahead and narrowed the middle rounds of the draft board—operationally defined here as names with ADPs of 50-120—to five names. As individuals and (if you’re lucky enough to get more than one of them) a collective, I believe they represent the best value(s) in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts this season.
This is that ever-critical, often-meaty part of the draft board where titles are earned. Where it’s imperative you stay on your toes and have a clear vision for your roster construction. The stakes are high, is what I’m saying, so, you know—stick and move, okay?
Here are the five players I think are the absolute best middle-round value at their current ADP (according to FantasyPros) headed into fantasy drafts.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals (RB18, ADP: 56.6)
I genuinely think James Conner is going to win people fantasy championships this year. And I said as much about him in another one of my other draft kit columns, 12-team PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Picking from the No. 12 spot:
Citing injury as a reason to fade Conner this far is simply silly: last season, he played in at least 13 games for the fourth straight season. That’s comfortably consistent.
Trey Benson has flashed in the preseason, but I think that’s going to be more of a future concern. Conner averaged a 62% snap share last season, and I don’t see Benson moving the needle on that number. I certainly don’t foresee Conner losing feature-back, high-value touches to Benson.
Last season, Conner finished as the RB13. How is it that he’s being drafted outside the top-15 running backs in 2024? It can’t be age. 29 years old is getting up there for a halfback, but it’s by no means a guarantee of a plummet in production.
By all projection models, the Cardinals’s passing offense in 2024 is going to lap its production from last season. This should hopefully open up more opportunities in the run game for Conner, who will also see his fair share of targets. Project him for around 36 receptions and in the ballpark of 250 receiving yards.
I have Conner ranked as my RB12. I much prefer him over guys like James Cook, Josh Jacobs, and Joe Mixon. Don’t take him over Rachaad White. But do take Conner instead of DK Metcalf and Stefon Diggs, who are both pass-catchers getting drafted earlier than him.
Take him in the fifth round with confidence. He’s a high-end RB2 who’s being inexplicably slept on.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (WR39, ADP: 99.6)
Odunze’s over-the-top prolific career at the University of Washington is an incredible resumé to behold. Especially his 2023: he led the FBS in receiving yards, with a whopping 1,640. He also registered 21 catches on deep throws (targets with 20+ air yards), and hauled in 24 contested catches—both also FBS-bests.
The ceiling is, quite simply, stratospherically high here. Odunze’s build grades similarly to Ja’Marr Chase’s. He’s 6’3″, 212 pounds—so we know he’s physical at the line and at the point of a catch. He grades in the 94th percentile in speed score for all rookies and 97th for catch radius. Still, with all that size and speed, Odunze cleared the 86th percentile for his agility score.
The upside is just too good. It also could just flat out be a ton of fun. It’s all but certain that Odunze will soon be the top receiver in this offense, and it could happen this season. His rapport with Caleb Williams is spectacularly apparent.
If you’re getting Odunze as your WR4, which you are at this price, you’re getting an absolute steal. I have him as my WR32, over guys like Keenan Allen, Jayden Reed, and Xavier Worthy.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (WR28; ADP 62.0)
I wonder if you, like me, are a bit giddy that Zay Flowers is routinely lingering around this part of the draft board this season. We’re getting what feels like a surefire WR2 at the price of a middling WR3.
I’ve been banging the drum all offseason: separation metrics are key for evaluating how a wide receiver can convert his opportunities. Flowers finished seventh-best in the NFL in separation rate per target with 3.7. That’s in his rookie season! Which, by the way, also saw him break Baltimore Ravens records for receptions (77) and yards (858) by a rookie wideout.
I think we can expect his catch percentage of 71.3% to take a step forward this season, even if his separation rate takes a slight dip. And, in that same vein, I think we can project him for closer to 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns this year.
We get understandably concerned over second-year receivers suffering a sophomore slump before a third-year breakout, but I don’t think we’re getting in too early on Flowers, here. The presence of new feature back Derrick Henry will likely open up more passing opportunities for Lamar Jackson. Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman will get theirs, but it’s Flowers who’s the clear alpha.
And, again, most importantly: none of his advanced receiving metrics suggest he should be drafted this late. I have Flowers ranked as my WR22 over guys like Jaylen Waddle, Malik Nabers, Amari Cooper, and Tank Dell.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (RB34, ADP: 100.0)
This is all about the long game. If you’ve not the spine for a ninth-round investment on a possible per-game return at fifth-round value, scroll on.
But! If you’ve gone ahead and gotten your running back stables in order for your workhorses and can afford an end-run pick at this point in your draft, you should absolutely consider Chubb.
Again, Chubb’s place on this list is a bit more niche than the others, simply because his absence the first four weeks makes him a definitive liability until Week 5. And then, seeing as this is Chubb’s umpteenth torn-ACL recovery, we’re banking on him returning to peak form.
I just foresee five volcanic weeks in the second half of the season where Chubb will swing an entire matchup. He will get better as he goes on, both because he’ll shake off the injury rust and because he’s a natural runner that improves with usage.
Don’t forget—he’s on the IR to begin the season, meaning you can stash him in your IR slot and free up a bench slot for some other undrafted upside plays.
I have Chubb ranked as my RB28, right after the next name on this list.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (RB35, ADP: 100.6)
Like James Conner, I wrote about buying in on the upside play in Spears for my 12-team PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Picking from the No. 12 spot:
This choice is all about a vacated running back room with Derrick Henry gone, and a Titans offense that could improve under second-year signal-caller Will Levis.
Last season, Spears commanded a 26.3% target share (!) and converted it into 385 receiving yards. Only one other running back ran 250+ routes with a higher target share in 2023: Breece Hall.
I know new acquisition Tony Pollard is in the mix, but he’s more of a pure halfback. He’ll get more of the Derrick Henry carries, and that’s not really where the value is in what Tennessee is calling an “interchangeable tandem” backfield.
Last season, behind an admittedly much-worse offensive line, Derrick Henry finished 42nd of 57th in yards before contact per attempt (YBC/a). The Titans have had trouble with production on pure handoffs, and their woes aren’t going to totally disappear this season. It’s Pollard’s whose value suffers, there.
The offensive line is much better, however, and has been particularly impressive throughout the preseason. While that might translate to some converted high-value touches for Pollard, we’re already drafting Spears knowing Pollard is in the mix. And, really, any improvement in any phase of the offensive game benefits the super-utility speedster in Spears.
You’re drafting Spears in 2024 with Tarik Cohen’s and Danny Woodhead’s best years in mind. I have him as my RB27, over backs like Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Jonathan Brooks, Brian Robinson, Jr., and Austin Ekeler.
Happy drafting! And be sure to check out some futures bets for all of these players on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
