We’ve got a fantastic slate of college football games to bet over Labor Day Weekend on DraftKings Sportsbook. Saturday afternoon brings us one of the most impactful of the bunch, as the Miami Hurricanes take the trip over to The Swamp to face the Florida Gators. Let’s breakdown the game.
Miami at Florida (+3 or Moneyline)
We’ve seen the price on this game bounce around all summer. I’m on some Gators ML, so don’t mind playing the dog that way, but the spread was also 2.5 when I bet it. It’s returned to 2.5, but 3/3.5 has been available in the market. If we see FL +3 again before kick, I’d play it that way, but anything that’s plus-money on the moneyline is also a good bet. I put out +2.5 and ML back on July 25 for 1-unit a piece, so let’s go over why.
This is a really interesting game, as we have a Hurricanes squad with a win total of 9.5 barely favored over the Gators, who have a win total of 4.5. Of course, schedule plays a role, and Florida not only plays the toughest schedule in the country, but arguably one of the toughest schedules of all-time. The Gators play their final five games of the regular season against teams that opened up the AP Poll ranked in the top-13. But that’s all the more reason to get off to a strong start.
Miami comes in with a ton of hype, and following FSU’s loss in Ireland, the ‘Canes are now favored to win the ACC. I’m going to have to see it from this team, though, as they’ve fallen short of the hype too many times now to be trusted. Mario Cristobal also made some dreadful coaching errors last season, en route to a 7-6 season. I understand that the talent on Miami’s roster is the draw, headlined by Washington State QB transfer, Cam Ward. But this is a super tough test right off the bat, going to a very difficult place to play.
The perception of this Florida team seems to be down because of how difficult of a season its projected to have. Yes, the Gators are going to have to battle to make a Bowl Game. But that doesn’t mean this is a bad team, it’s just facing a slew of elite opponents. In fact, in terms of pure power rankings, Phil Steele has Florida ranked as his 19th team in the country.
Billy Napier actually went 5-1 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida in 2022, and then followed it up with a big outright win in the first game the Gators were priced as a home dog in 2023 — a 29-16 victory over Tennessee as 5-point dogs. Similar angle here, with the Gators one-possession home dogs in a rivalry game in September.
This season, Florida returns 14 starters, including starting QB Graham Mertz, who really improved from his Wisconsin days. Leading rusher Montrell Johnson (who has now been cleared to play vs. Miami) is also back in Gainesville, along with four of the top-five pass catchers (if you include Johnson’s role in the receiving game). Steele also projects the defense to improve at all three levels in 2024.
Overall, this sets up a really nice spot to back what’s perceived as an underwhelming home underdog against a team that’s getting all the hype, but hasn’t proved a thing. Chomp-chomp on Saturday afternoon at The Swamp.
Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
