It’s staggering to think of how many fantasy-relevant skill players switched teams this offseason. In composing this article, I evaluated right around twenty names, many of whom are marquee. Saquon Barkley to the Eagles. Derrick Henry to Baltimore. Calvin Ridley to Tennessee. It goes on.
Plenty of these new faces in town will provide bountiful fantasy returns for season-long and DFS owners alike. However, with the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year coming up, let’s narrow our focus a bit, shall we?
Here are my top-five players on new teams to consider during your drafts this season.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Of all the running backs above listed on new teams, Henry is the only one I’m thrilled to draft this season.
Say it with me now: King Henry is not yet washed. The time is coming, but it’s not this year. In 2023, he still finished second in yards after contact (to only Christian McCaffrey) with 857 on the season. That’d have to be some remarkable luck for someone whose balance has altogether eroded.
I just don’t see a scenario in which Derrick Henry doesn’t come out on top in this new situation. The Ravens offensive line is worlds better than the offensive line Henry was operating behind last year in Tennessee. Henry finished, among eligible running backs, 42nd of 57th (!!) in yards before contact per attempt (YBC/a). Which is to say, he had absolutely nowhere to run.
He won’t finish close to that figure in YBC/a on the Ravens. And it’s not just about the offensive line, really. Lamar Jackson dizzies defenses before he even hikes the ball. It’s always been a hyper-efficient, ultra-volume running game.
I don’t think they went out and got Derrick Henry to change that mentality whatsoever. He’ll eclipse 300 carries once more, and will rush for somewhere in the ballpark of 1,250 yards and 10+ TDs.
Marquise Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
I’ve written about Hollywood at length this offseason for DK Network. I cover him in the most depth in my Fantasy football strategy: Drafting value wide receivers column. But readers of any of my draft kit pieces should know how all-in I am on Brown as a Chief.
Since the writing of that wide receiver strategy, news broke that Rashee Rice isn’t expected to miss any time re. his legal troubles in Dallas. I still like Hollywood Brown at his ADP:
Hollywood Brown, despite missing time with injury last year, finished third-worst overall among wide receivers in RecYOE, with a figure of -192. Granted, he still did command an impressive 23.5% target share in his woebegone 2023 Cardinals offense, so the inflated RecYOE stat might be a result of forced volume.
But—we love that, right? Brown had a frustrating and not-altogether-healthy year, bad quarterback play, still commanded a healthy target share, and managed to be a decent fantasy producer.
Brown had a paltry separation rate of 2.5, same as Garrett Wilson (NYJ). So, again, we can deduce that bad quarterback play led to tighter coverage on brown, smaller windows for him to catch the ball, and thus a down season in terms of actual production.
Put simply: now he has Patrick Mahomes. It’s, all the sudden, a bit of a crowded hangar of talented jet-fighters as far as the KC receiving room goes. But Hollywood’s talent should win out.
He’s going to win folks some championships this year.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers
It’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow to wind up in Carolina after a frustrating go in Pittsburgh, but things might be a little more lucrative for Diontae Johnson and his owners this season than it may superficially seem.
In a dysfunctional-and-hapless Pittsburgh offense in the 2023 season, Johnson’s target share was 23.4%. Maybe what’s most striking about that figure is that it’s his lowest target share since 2020. Which means he averages around 25%, and we should project him there in his new Dave Canales offense in Carolina.
We shouldn’t worry about whether or not he can be efficient with his routes based on his stats last year, either: among 89 WRs targeted over 45 times, Johnson finished 29th in yards per route run (1.90). This should mean he’ll continue to generate a lot of air yards, even in a rough passing offense with Bryce Young at the helm. Johnson commanded right around 30% of the air yards in Pittsburgh last year; I project him right around there in Carolina this season, too.
I wrote about getting Johnson in the fifth/sixth rounds of drafts this year in my 12-team PPR Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Picking from the No. 6 spot column. I like him right around there, because I expect him to return to his 2021 form in his age-28 season. That year, Johnson had 107 receptions on 169 targets for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns.
My colleague Matt De Lima also loves Diontae Johnson. You can find his full analysis here: 5 Best PPR players to consider for Fantasy Football 2024.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
Is it possible to call Swift post-hype this far into his career? Because I sort of feel like he’s way too cheap in drafts right now in this new Bears offense.
Somehow, we’ve all fallen into the narrative trap with Swift, too: he’s not as injury-prone as you may think. He’s played 14 games his last two years, and has never played in fewer than 13 across an entire season in his career. Of course, he’s not getting any younger, so your garden-variety wear-and-tear is going to take more of a toll on Swift. But he’s not a crystal flute.
He averaged right around 4.5 yards per carry on the Eagles last year, and showed he’s still got his receiving chops. I’m not altogether surprised he didn’t blow up in Philadelphia; I drafted him a lot last year and was pleasantly surprised with the returns.
He cost a lot more in 2023 for a role that ended up being, likely, less prolific than what Chicago has planned for him. I’m trying to get in on the Bears offense on the cheap, and Swift is a great way to do so.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Last season was good to Gus Edwards. It feels like he rarely had the ball out of his hands. His former-and-now-current teammate J.K. Dobbins went down for the season to injury early, which paved the way to a workhorse role for Edwards. He had career highs in carries and yards—198 and 810, respectively.
We cared most, last year, about Edwards’s TD returns. Given that he had 13 of them (good for fourth among all eligible running backs), we need to bank on that same sort of TD total in the 2024 season.
Edwards may be on a different team, but he’s incredibly familiar with Greg Roman’s offense. New Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh, Roman, and the Gus Bus will conspire together to feed Edwards in the red zone and around the goal line.
This is a volume play, and it’s a late-round one at at that. Don’t take Edwards before the tenth.
Happy drafting! And be sure to check out some futures bets for all of these players on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
