The Indianapolis Colts enter the 2024 season with the hopes of finding stability and taking a step forward as a team.
After a disastrous season in 2022 in which they went 4-12 and made a midseason coaching change, the Colts looked notably improved last year. Despite narrowly missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record, Indianapolis has a solid baseline to build off after the first year of Shane Steichen’s head coaching tenure.
All eyes will be on quarterback Anthony Richardson as he returns to the field. The former 4th overall pick played in just four games and attempted 84 total passes before his season was shut down due to an injury on his throwing shoulder. There were already questions regarding his throwing ability and chances of staying healthy. These concerns date back to his time in college so this will be something to monitor this year.
Overall, the Colts are tied for the 9th-worst odds to win it all at +7500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have the fifth-worst odds to win the AFC at +3500, +340 odds to win the AFC South, and +140 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Colts’ season-long win total is 8.5 games, with the under favored at -130 odds.
Under 8.5 Wins (-130 Odds)
The Anthony Richardson injury was disappointing last year. The 22-year-old is a player who needed to play through his mistakes but was robbed of this opportunity.
The Colts went 2-2 in the games Richardson was active in. However, his 84 pass attempt sample size was too small to get any hard-hitting takeaways. While the raw physical abilities are clear and his flashes of talent are exciting, don’t forget that Richardson had points of concern in his college film as well. In his final year at Florida, Richardson had a 53.8% completion percentage, just 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions.
Based on how the season played out overall, the Colts exceeded expectations last year. Gardner Minshew kept the ship steady and steered the offense in Richardson’s absence. He had a 62.2% completion percentage throwing for 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Minshew’s abilities are clear at this point in his NFL career. He’s not elite, but he was good enough to get another starting opportunity this season with the Las Vegas Raiders.
While you could make the argument that Joe Flacco has the potential to produce on Richardson’s current level, as he flashed last year with the Browns, the Colts are still interested in seeing what they truly have with Richardson. Expect the growing pains to be notable and for the Colts to have their ups and downs.
Indianapolis has a fairly tough schedule this season and not a lot of room for error. Expect this to be a bit of a transition year and for them to struggle against teams like the Texans, Packers, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Bears, and Jaguars. Their defense ranked 28th in points allowed last season and it will take Richardson leading the charge to overcome some of the team’s concerns.
With too many variables for account for and many things that can go wrong, take the under on 8.5 wins.
Anthony Richardson Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+105 Odds)
If there is one thing you can expect from Richardson in year two, it is some dynamic play with his legs. The Florida product rushed for four touchdowns last season during the brief time he was on the field.
While the mobile nature of his play is directly tied to the injury concerns, don’t expect these opportunities to change. When head coach Shane Steichen was asked about limiting the rushing attempts this summer, he likened it to asking Steph Curry not to shoot three-pointers.
It does not take an advanced eye to see the way Richardson pops when he takes off with the ball. The biggest concern with him as a player is his overreliance on his legs or lack of confidence in his arms which forces him into these decisions. This will be something to keep an eye on as the year progresses. Regardless, expectations should be for the Colts quarterback to get a fair amount of opportunities to take off on the ground.
He may not stay on the 16-rushing touchdown trajectory he was on last season but expect Richardson to find the endzone with his legs often. The 7.5 line feels like a bet that is directly against whether or not he will stay healthy.
While he likely will not suit up for all 17 games this year, the Colts will give Richardson every opportunity they safely can for him to play. Considering quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts each tallied 15 touchdowns last year, Richardson is a good bet to clear this number.
Feel confident about his impact on the ground and take Richardson to tally at least eight rushing touchdowns this season.
Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard). I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
