The Buffalo Bills are coming off their fifth consecutive season with 10+ wins. However, they have failed to take that next step in the postseason in the way they had hoped. The pressure continues to build around Josh Allen and the rest of the franchise following three consecutive losses in the Divisional round.
But the playoffs are far away. There is still plenty of football to be played until then, and with this comes plenty of value on the betting board and some intriguing futures surrounding this team.
The Bills are tied for the seventh-best odds to win it all at +1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have the fourth-best odds to win the AFC at +800, +195 odds to win the AFC East, and -175 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Bills’ season-long win total is 9.5 games, with the over favored at -145 odds.
Josh Allen Over 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+100)
The Bills made a notable change this offseason by trading away Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. This leaves over 1,100 yards receiving and eight touchdowns’ worth of production that need to be replaced within the offense.
As far as touchdown production goes, look for Allen’s legs to take an even larger step forward in the pecking order when this team gets to the goal line. The Wyoming product’s dual-threat ability makes him unique. His 6-foot-6 frame makes it easier for him to take the hits. Allen plays every game as if it’s his last and shows no hesitancy in leaping over or through defenders when heading for the end zone.
In his six years in the NFL, Allen has never had fewer than six touchdowns on the ground. He has tallied eight, nine, eight, six, and seven rushing touchdowns before exploding for 15 last year. This number was tied with Jalen Hurts for 2nd in the NFL, trailing only Raheem Mostert.
He has room to regress by five touchdowns and still hit this mark. The wide receiver trio of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel does not strike the fear into opponents’ hearts that a top offense should. Shakir has recorded just three total touchdowns in two seasons in the NFL. Samuel is coming off a four-touchdown season with Washington. Coleman is a rookie. Dalton Kincaid also only added two receiving touchdowns in his rookie year.
The Bills still need to find a way to score points this year. Allen’s legs may turn into a necessity more than a luxury as they are often considered around the goal line. Expect him to score double-digit rushing touchdowns for the second consecutive season as there will be some growing pains with the receiving core early on.
Keon Coleman Over 675.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Allen may have to pick up the slack around the goal line, someone is going to have to catch passes for this Bills team. Enter 33rd overall pick Keon Coleman who will likely be a key part of the offense from day one.
Coleman will have his rookie moments. His route tree is not overly refined. He has also drawn criticism for a goal-line drop in the preseason.
Even still, there will be plenty of opportunity for Coleman. The Florida State product has been praised heavily by Josh Allen during camp for his body control on the sidelines and overall competitiveness. He also has more polished blocking skills than most rookie wide receivers which should open the door for more immediate play time.
The bottom line is that there will be too much opportunity put on Coleman’s plate to pass up this 675.5 receiving yard number. Just last year, seven different rookie wide receivers eclipsed this number (Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, & Tank Dell.)
Coleman checks all the boxes for necessary talent, opportunity, and quarterback play to do the same this year. Look for him to clear the 675.5 receiving-yard margin and be a vital part of the Bills passing attack this season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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