The Atlanta Falcons have become one of the trendiest NFL teams entering this season.
After three consecutive seasons with a 7-10 record, the Falcons made some notable changes. The franchise emptied its pockets by handing Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal this offseason. They then made an even more surprising move by drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick. The team will hope the quarterback play was all that was holding them back and the franchise now has the answer on the roster.
The Falcons are tied for the 13th-best odds to win it all at +3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have the sixth-best odds to win the AFC at +1300, -130 odds to win the NFC South East, and -215 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Falcons’ season-long win total is 9.5 games, with the over favored at -150 odds.
Kirk Cousins Over 3800.5 Passing Yards (-115 Odds)
To address the glass-half-empty outlook, Kirk Cousins is 36 years old and coming off an Achilles tear. While these aren’t ideal factors, Cousins has never been a quarterback to depend on his athleticism.
Cousins has set a clear barometer for who he is as a quarterback at this point in his career. Excluding last year due to injury, he has thrown for over 4000 yards in seven of the past eight seasons.
The Michigan State product now joins an Atlanta offense with some intriguing weapons. Bijan Robinson will be a key factor in the screen game in addition to running the ball. Drake London has exceeded 800 yards through the air in each of his first two seasons in the NFL despite sub-par quarterback play, and Kyle Pitts eclipsed 1,000 yards as a rookie when playing with Matt Ryan. Darnell Mooney will also be a name to watch as he was once a 1,000-yard receiver who desired a change of scenery after four years with the Bears.
Expect the Falcons’ offense to be fairly simple for Cousins. He will not be looking to ad-lib or single guys out. Instead, expect him to spread the ball around and for several position players to make their impact felt.
For Cousins to exceed this set number, he will need to throw for an average of just 224 yards through the air per game. The Falcons handed him the contract he desired and now look for Cousins to get a chance to perform. The Penix selection is still strange, but every sign points toward Cousins being the starting quarterback without challenge for at least this year. Expect the four-time Pro Bowl QB to show he still has something left in the tank and exceed 3,800.5 passing yards.
Atlanta Falcons Over 3.5 Divisional Wins (-120 Odds)
The Falcons have not been to the NFL playoffs since 2017. Their -215 odds of making the playoffs indicate they have a real chance of changing that this year.
The easiest path is through winning the NFC South outright. While you can jump on the -130 odds for this to be the case, I find a little more security in Atlanta picking up four divisional wins. While I still favor Atlanta, don’t fully discount the Buccaneers winning the division for the second straight season. It is a bit surprising to me to see the odds all the way down at +320 for Tampa Bay.
Looking around the rest of the NFC South outside of Atlanta, there is much more reason for skepticism. The Buccaneers’ and Saints’ season-long win totals sit at 7.5 while the Panthers is set at 5.5. All three teams have larger quarterback concerns than Cousins and each has issues beyond QB as well.
The driving force of this bet is the belief the Falcons will beat the Panthers in both matchups. These are set to take place in Carolina in Week 6 and then in Atlanta in Week 18. While there could be some concern about there being nothing at stake in that Week 18 game, it is more likely the Panthers will be in the race for the top pick and motivated to lose. Entering the season, Carolina holds +650 odds to have the fewest wins, which is the third-lowest in the NFL.
Assuming this is the case and the Falcons beat the Panthers twice, Atlanta would just need to split their matchups with Tampa Bay and New Orleans. I also wouldn’t fully rule out the Falcons being able to pick up a pair of wins against either team as both exceeded expectations last year and have a chance at taking a step back.
If you feel more comfortable laying the divisional line at -130, I won’t fully argue. But being able to bet the Falcons to win four out of their six divisional games against inferior opponents carries similar weight and the ability to handpick the matchups.
Sip the Kirk Cousins cool-aid and expect Atlanta to live up to some of the hype this year.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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