You’re here for baseball bets. I have baseball bets. Let’s not drag this out any longer.
Here are a couple of my top wagers on tonight’s MLB slate.
Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
Braves ML (-135)
Usually I’d try and kick things off with something a little sexier, but it just feels like the Braves are being undervalued on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Well, Chris Sale is being undervalued.
The left-hander is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award and it isn’t all that difficult to see why. Among all qualified starters, Sale’s 2.08 FIP is the lowest mark by a country mile. His 32.7% strikeout rate is also the best in baseball, while his 2.69 xERA sits second. At 35-years-old, Sale is throwing harder than he has since all the way back in 2018. It’s probably safe to say that the Red Sox regret trading him to Atlanta for peanuts this past winter.
This isn’t the most difficult matchup in the world, either. Though the Twins currently have a Wild Card spot locked down in the American League, the team has lost three in a row and seven of its last 10 games. As is often the case, injuries have taken their toll. Lefty-mashers Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton remain on the IL as we enter action on Wednesday, and injuries are the reason rookie David Festa and his 5.20 ERA are still in Minnesota’s rotation.
The Braves are 16-5 in Sale’s past 21 outings. I honestly believe they should be closer to -180 on the moneyline, but I’ll take the discount with open arms.
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Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers
Orioles ML (-110)
The odds would make this tilt between the Orioles and the Dodgers seem like a coin flip, yet I don’t truly believe that’s the case. I can see the similarities, though. We have two of the undisputed top five teams in the league squaring off at Dodger Stadium tonight, each sending a struggling ace to the mound in the form of Corbin Burnes and Walker Buehler. However, in terms of actual red flags, Buehler is in a league all his own.
The 30-year-old has only made 10 starts in 2024 because of various ailments and things have not gone well. Across 44.1 innings, Buehler sports a 6.09 ERA and a 6.17 FIP. He’s got a second percentile whiff rate (17.3%) and he’s surrendering a whopping 2.23 opponent home runs per nine. Specific to Buehler’s last four starts at the MLB level, he’s struck out a paltry 9.6% of the 83 batters he’s faced. For context, this is a man who has twice racked up over 200 strikeouts in a single campaign. To be completely frank, Buehler looks like a shell of himself at the moment.
Conversely, Burnes’ rough patch looks like just that — a rough patch. While the All-Star has registered an 8.71 ERA in his four starts in August, a .377 opponent BABIP and 44.0% strand rate are the main culprits in a case of small sample nonsense. Is there a larger discussion to be had about Burnes’ shrinking strikeout rate as he heads into free agency this offseason? Undoubtedly. Yet for the purposes of this random outing in Los Angeles, I think it’s safe to say Burnes is far and away more trustworthy than this current version of Buehler.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
