Week 1 of the college football season gets underway on Thursday night with a pretty decent slate of games. Among the featured games is North Carolina traveling out to Minnesota to face the Golden Gophers. Here’s how I’m betting the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
UNC ML (-125) at Minnesota
If you’ve been tracking the market and the betting splits all summer, this game stands out as a bit of a head-scratcher. I enjoy playing games well in advance if I like the number, and I did that here. I backed the Golden Gophers as a home underdog when they opened, and after a slight move, I put out MIN -1.5 as a 2-unit play. I felt the game would easily move to Minnesota -3 and we’d have a good number here — which is where the market did sit over the weekend. However, while I’m happy with my early number on the majority of the games I bet, this is the one I’m backtracking on, as I explained in a tweet.
So to recap (if you didn’t read that entire tweet) — I personally have MIN +2.5 (-110) for 2-units, so came back on UNC ML (-125) for 4-units. But if you didn’t follow my content over the summer and are just jumping in to bet the game, I feel UNC is the side, and will explain why.
We’ve now seen a 5.5-point swing on the Tar Heels over a three day span, and I’m writing this with just under 24 hours to kickoff. I initially felt Minnesota would be able to move the ball well in this game, but we’re starting to get rumblings that the two most talented offensive players might miss this game. PJ Fleck has no reason to show his hand until close to kick, but the noise is getting loud that multiple key starters will miss this game, and the giant line move suggests this is more than smoke.
I was initially ready to roll with FCS transfer QB Max Brosmer, but if we are taking his best offensive weapons off the field, his first FBS start might now be a tall order. The Tar Heels dominated this matchup in Chapel Hill in Week 3 last season, and return 13 starters from that 31-13 victory. The strength of the UNC defense is believed to be the defensive line, so watch out for some pressure on Brosmer to force some mistakes. I was ready to back Minnesota in this game, so it’s not like I have too much negative to say about their team. But the lineup news is what ultimately puts me down on them, and the market seems to firmly agree.
There is some good upside with the Tar Heels too, though. When I spoke with Phil Steele this summer, he had UNC as his dark horse to surprise people out of the ACC (you can hear the full convo here). While Mack Brown says the might play two quarterbacks in this game, the belief is they will lean on Max Johnson, who has made over 20 starts in the SEC. Top pass catcher JJ Jones returns, as does the workhorse of the offense in Omarion Hampton — the RB ran for over 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns.
I’m expecting UNC to move the ball well on the ground and be able to make some plays on the outside. Compound that with the lack of explosiveness on offense for Minnesota, and potentially forcing some mistakes, and I do feel the Tar Heels pull out a tough road win.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
