Fantasy football draft night only rolls around once per year. Undoubtedly the most anticipated and exciting moment of the season, but also laying the groundwork for what success or failures lie ahead.
The number one pick is a controversial spot in the fantasy football draft. The advantage of taking the top overall player can be outweighed by the pain of watching your league-mates make a pair of selections before you step up to the podium again.
Still, someone has to bear this burden.
With mock draft season upon us, here is a look at how you might expect your draft board to shape out. We are approaching this mock draft with a 12-team PPR scoring format. So, due to the snake draft format, after making the first pick, your second and third selections will be the 24th and 25th overall picks.
We already have plenty of coverage on the site regarding specific positional ranks or strategies at different draft slots. But for this specific article, we will build a championship-caliber roster starting with the top overall pick. Don’t let this prevent you from jumping away from the script if your league-mates make a mistake and an unexpected player is available, but here is a look at how I expect the draft to play out and where you can strike.
Round 1, Pick 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey is the consensus top pick in fantasy football, and rightfully so.
The 49ers star averaged over 24 fantasy points per game for the third time in the past six seasons last year. He led the NFL in rushing yards with 1459, yards from scrimmage with 2023, total rushing/receiving touchdowns with 21, and overall touches with 339 on the year.
The biggest concern for the 28-year-old is the lingering calf issue he sustained in training camp. It is not ideal for him to enter the season, but it does not look to be a major deal. McCaffrey was held out of the preseason but has stated that it was mostly cautionary and that he could have played if it was a regular-season game.
Looking at the larger body of work, McCaffrey has played 16 or more games in five of his seven NFL seasons. He is the complete engine of the 49ers’ offense and could be especially important this year, given the contractual standoff with Brandon Aiyuk.
Don’t overthink this one, and lock up the most talented dual-threat back in the NFL.
Round 2, Pick 24: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
You have to nail these two picks here, and setting your production floor as high as possible is important. That is the logic of taking the first quarterback off the board and adding Josh Allen.
If you are adamantly against this early quarterback concept, there are several solid QB targets to consider later. However, Allen is an outlier in production, and considering the drop-off in position players in the 22 picks since you selected, this is the direction I would go.
The Bills quarterback ranked second in total fantasy points scored each of the last three years and was first in 2020. His dual-threat ability provides weekly production, and Allen added 15 touchdowns with his legs last year. While he can still go off the rails with some reckless decisions at times, this hurts the Bills far more than it will hurt your fantasy football team.
Other Considerations: De’Von Achane, Rashaad White
Round 3, Pick 25: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave has quietly flown under the radar as one of the rising stars among the young wide receiver class. He has eclipsed 1000 yards receiving in both seasons in the NFL, even without strong quarterback play.
While the quarterback play is not expected to improve, catching passes from Derek Carr is still better than some WRs (*cough, Malik Nabers). He also will have less competition for targets among his team, which should set him up for better fantasy success (*cough, Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins).
Heading into his second year with Carr, there is some optimism that Olave can improve. Carr threw for 3878 yards and 25 touchdowns last year, which is adequate production from the position.
The Saints are not expected to be very good this year, but Olave still has the talent to produce. He finished as the 16th-best fantasy wide receiver last year while only tallying five touchdowns. He had more targets than five of the receivers in front of him and has a chance to take a leap this season. After missing out on the true elite wide receiver class, Olave is likely your best chance at getting this type of production.
Other considerations: Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman
Round 4, Pick 48: Kenneth Walker III, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
As the season has inched closer, Kenneth Walker III has been a recent faller in fantasy football rankings. Most of this has to do with his starting point coming in a bit too high, and grabbing him to close out the 4th round is a fine spot.
The Seahawks standout has eclipsed 1100 yards from scrimmage and tallied nine touchdowns both years he has been in the NFL. He finished last year as RB19 and will look to build off this.
While Zach Charbonnet is an adequate backup, he is not a guy who will be looking over Walker III’s shoulder for touches. Charbonnet logged 108 total carries last year, with 54 coming during the midseason portion, during which Walker was banged up. When he returned, Walker missed two games in Weeks 10 & 11 and had his workload cut down.
Geno Smith’s NFL turnaround has been impressive, and he will be a threat enough to keep defenses honest. There will be very few options on the board at this point for running backs set to receive the number of touches that Kenneth Walker III is set to. Expect him to produce enough with these opportunities for this pick to be worth it.
Other considerations: DeVonta Smith. Stefon Diggs
Round 5, Pick 49: James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner deserves to be on the shortlist of players with the best chance to outperform their draft position. The Cardinals’ running back is coming off the best season of his career, in which he eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing and ended as RB13.
Injuries have been a common concern, but he has played at least 10 games every season and at least 13 in each of the last three seasons. Conner logged 62% of the snaps last season and should be expecting a similar opportunity this year.
The Cardinals offense is expecting to take a massive step forward as a team this year with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr and a full year with Kyler Murray. This should only benefit the space Conner can work with. Conner is about as sure of a bet as you can get at this stage in the draft and sets you up for likely the most impressive running back trio in your league.
Other considerations: Amari Cooper, Rhamondre Stevenson
Round 6, Pick 72: Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Let’s not forget what a dynamic wide receiver Keenan Allen has proven to be throughout his career. The six-time Pro Bowl pass-catcher has exceeded 1000 yards receiving six times and tallied six or more touchdowns on seven occasions. Just last season, he had 108 receptions for 1243 yards and seven touchdowns while receiving Pro Bowl honors.
He elected to leave the Chargers in free agency to sign a four-year $80 million deal with the Chicago Bears. The biggest concern with his production is the target share. DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are each really solid receivers around Allen, and all three guys will see targets.
However, Caleb Williams is about as NFL-ready as we have seen from a quarterback in recent years, and this Bears offense will impress this year. The Bears paid Allen to be a high-level contributor, and he should still be expected to be this. While he may not end as WR8 like he did last year, expect Allen to outperform his draft slot and be a comfortable every-week starter.
Other considerations: Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin
Round 7, Pick 73: Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me.
This is the phrase that comes to mind regarding Kyle Pitts, who has not taken that next step into a top-tier tight end the way it was expected. But we are taking the bait anyway.
The former 4th overall pick tallied 1000 yards receiving as a rookie but has failed to reach that in his past two years combined. That rookie season also was the last time he had adequate quarterback play with Matt Ryan still on the team.
The addition of Kirk Cousins and, to a lesser degree, Michael Penix Jr. has drastically changed Atlanta’s offensive outlook. Look for Pitts to build up some chemistry and get back to being showcased as the talent that he is.
There is a steep drop-off in tight-end production after the first few names come off the board. Taking a swing on Pitts is a chance to get this type of production at less of a cost.
Other considerations: Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson
Round 8, Pick 95: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett has been Seattle’s reliable wide receiver target, but it is time for the baton to be passed. Lockett tallied 894 receiving yards last year, his first recording fewer than 1000 since 2018. Set to turn 32 this season, we look to be at the tipping point of his decline.
To replace this production, look for the Seahawks to further utilize Jaxson Smith-Njigba this year. Last year’s 20th overall pick tallied 63 receptions for 628 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. While DK Metcalf’s presence also cannot be ignored, look for Smith-Njigba to grow in his target share and be more fantasy-relevant than we have seen.
While this is a bit of an upside swing, Smith-Njigba has the talent to take a leap. Taking him in round eight is a fair spot; if things break right, this could end up with tremendous value.
Other considerations: Devin Singletary, DeAndre Hopkins
Round 9, Pick 96: Cortland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
A bit more of a sure thing, Cortland Sutton is set to be the surefire number one receiver on the Broncos this year. Jerry Jeudy’s offseason trade ensured this was the case. Sutton has not eclipsed the 1000-yard receiving mark since 2019 but has had at least 700 yards in each of the past three seasons.
The biggest question mark for Sutton will be his quarterback play, as rookie Bo Nix is taking over under center. There will be highs and lows with Nix, but he has the arm talent and looks willing to air the ball out. Expect Sutton to see an increase in opportunities this year, which will result in more fantasy football production.
Other considerations: Ladd McConkey, Austin Ekeler
The rest of my bench
Here’s how I filled out the rest of my bench with skill players, listed in the order I drafted them.
- Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
- Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
- Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
- Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
- Jake Moody, K, San Francisco 49ers
This puts you with a likely starting lineup of:
- QB Josh Allen
- RB Christian McCaffrey
- RB Keneth Walker III
- WR Chris Olave
- WR Keenan Allen
- Flex James Conner
- TE Kyle Pitts
And there is your 2024 championship-caliber roster, curated from the 1-slot.
Happy drafting! And be sure to check out some futures bets for all of these players on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
