The PGA TOUR heads to Georgia this week for the TOUR Championship. East Lake Golf Club will be the host, and measures as an 7,490-yard par 71 with Bermuda greens.
There will be no cut this week, and the field will feature the top-30 remaining golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. In addition, each of the 30 golfers will begin a certain amount of strokes under par based on where they rank in the FedEx Cup standings. Scottie Scheffeler, who sits in first, will begin at 10-under, while the bottom five in the standings will all begin at even par.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Rory McIlroy to win (+1600)
McIlroy is starting at four strokes under par this week, which is four behind Xander Schauffele and six behind Scottie Scheffler. The Northern Irishman has had a ton of success at East Lake in his career, having won the TOUR Championship three times since 2016. He’s also posted three top-eight finishes in that stretch as well, while finishing T2 back in 2014.
East Lake had some renovations done since we last saw it, and will now play 144 yards longer than it has in the past. The added length will only help McIlroy, whose biggest weapon remains his driver. The four-time major winner posted a T13 last week at the BMW thanks to a poor final round, where he uncharacteristically lost 1.4 strokes off-the-tee. However, he did gain 1.3 strokes putting, which was nice to see after losing over seven strokes on the greens at the FedEx St. Jude the week prior.
McIlroy was in this exact same situation back in 2022 when he won his last TOUR Championship. He started at four-under par, and six strokes back of the leader, who happened to be Scottie Scheffler. If anyone can make up six strokes over four rounds to the best player in the world, it’s McIlroy.
At 16/1, he makes for an outstanding bet this week.
Justin Thomas to Top-10 (+350)
JT has had a really up and down 2024 season, but at least has flashed a high ceiling when on his game. Through 18 starts this year, Thomas has five top-10s, four of which have come at either Signature Events with no cut, or major championships. He finished T6 or better at all of the Travelers, RBC Heritage and Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The fact that Thomas gets up for these big-money events is more than enough reason to back him this week at close to 4/1 in a 30-man field, but it gets even more amplified when you look at his history at East Lake. JT has played the TOUR Championship seven times between 2016 and 2023, and in those seven starts has yet to finish outside the top seven, while posting top-four finishes four separate times in that stretch.
Thomas could not get a putt to drop last week at the BMW, but gained a whopping 3.5 strokes on approach during his final round, which led the field. Between that and the good vibes he gets about being back in the Southeast, it’s more than enough to back him in the T10 market this week.
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