We had this exact matchup last season with Penn State hosting, and while WVU was covering late, James Franklin ran the cover play in a controversial finish. Now the Nittany Lions head to Morgantown for what figures to be a rowdy atmosphere. Will the Mountaineers get revenge? Here’s how I’m betting the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
WVU +8 (+102) vs. Penn State
This game actually opened with the home team priced as a 12-point underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook, way back when. I wound up firing on the Mountaineers at +10.5 for 1.5-units on June 19, and we’ve just continued to see this one move in one direction. Despite Penn State’s top-10 ranking, West Virginia has taken 47% of the handle on the spread, despite just 27% of the tickets being written on them. WVU is also the fifth-most bet underdog on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook on the college football Week 1 card (all splits and betting info as of August 27).
The Mountaineers were 20-point road dogs in this matchup Week 1 last season, and were covering for the majority of the game. As I mentioned, Franklin made the controversial decision to run in a late touchdown for the 38-15 win.
WVU doesn’t have the easiest of schedules in 2024, which is taking away some of the attention of how improved this team could be. This was a 9-4 roster last season that exceeded expectations, and now returns 13 starters. This isn’t as much of a fade of Penn State as it is really liking the way WVU is trending under Neal Brown.
The Mountaineers went 5-1 SU/ATS at home last season, with the lone loss to a very good Oklahoma State team that won double-digit games and reached the Big 12 Title Game. The Nittany Lions are a tougher test, but WVU also played very well in the underdog role last season. You could make the argument WVU should have covered at PSU, then here were the rest of the games priced as a dog:
- +6 vs. Texas Tech: 20-13 victory for WVU
- +14 at TCU: 24-21 victory for WVU
- +7 at UCF: 41-28 victory for WVU
- +11 at Oklahoma: 20-59 loss for WVU
That’s a very strong showing for the Mountaineers, especially proving how capable they are of winning games outright at this price point — 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog of 6-14 points. WVU returns Senior QB, Garrett Greene, who tossed just four interceptions last season. Greene should protect the ball, and was also a monster piece of the ground game — rushing for over 700 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.
I expect the rushing attack to be the difference for West Virginia in this one. Greene is one of three 700-plus yard rushers from last season returning to this roster, along with three elite offensive lineman. WVU rushed for 229 yards per game last season, which ranked third in the nation, and somehow only allowed 10 sacks. With many of the key pieces to that attack returning, Phil Steele ranked WVU’s OL the 11th-best in the country.
Limit turnovers, control the offensive line and run the ball with trusted ball carriers at home … I see how the Mountaineers keep this one tight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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