The Longhorns make the move over the the SEC this season, and following a College Football Playoff appearance, the expectations are high. While Texas is a solid team, let’s pump the breaks on this blowout getting out of hand in Week 1 against Colorado State. Here’s how I’m betting the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
CSU +32.5 (-112) at Texas
I put this play out on Twitter at CSU +36.5 (-110) for 1-unit back on July 25, and to be honest, I wish I made it a larger play. Obviously, we have some line movement in our favor as game day approaches, but if you missed the play in the first place, I’d be alright playing the Rams down to +31.5 in this matchup. As of August 27, CSU has taken 39% of the bets on the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook, but has 79% of the total handle — causing this line to drop.
Why so high on a middle of the pack Mountain West team in Week 1 against a national contender? I’d say it’s a combination of Colorado State being a bit underrated, along with Texas being overrated. Bust mostly, it’s just a massive lookahead spot for the home team (more on that later), and a huge “prove-it” game for CSU..
In Jay Norvell’s third season, he returns 14 starters, which was enough to make Phil Steele’s most improved list in his 2024 College Football Preview. This team performed very well early in the season as an underdog in 2023, going 4-1 ATS in its first five games priced as a dog. The Rams won two of those games outright, and also lost by a single possession in double-overtime in the game they were priced as the biggest dog they were all season — +23 at Colorado. Colorado State was able to keep up with a high-powered offense in that one, and I’m pretty confident it will be able to move the ball against Texas.
While Quinn Ewers does return, I believe there were a lot of key departures that aren’t being factored in enough this season for the Longhorns. Jonathan Brooks is off to the NFL, but projected RB1 CJ Baxter is now out for the season, as is one of his backups. The running back position will be thin for Texas. The Longhorns also lost their top-five pass-catchers from last season. That said, I don’t want to completely overreact, as Silas Bolden and Isaiah Bond were very nice gets in the transfer portal. But the point remains, this is a very new offense with a lot of pieces shuffling around. It may not click immediately in Week 1.
Perhaps even more important for this game early in the season will be Texas getting over its key defensive losses. Many of the starters are back, but the crucial losses of Byron Murphy (a first-round picks) and T’Vondre Sweat (an early second-round pick) should be massive. The Longhorns will need to find their stride on defense, which is part of the reason I feel the Rams can put some points up in this game.
Finally, this is just a clear-cut lookahead spot for Texas, which travels to Ann Arbor in Week 2. A matchup on the road with the defending champs has to be on the minds of the Longhorns, no matter what they tell us. It’s a very similar spot to last season, when Texas slept walked a bit through the Rice game in Week 1. Sure, Texas won 37-10, but it was much closer for a lot of the game, and the Longhorns didn’t cover the 35-point spread. Of course, Texas had a matchup with Alabama on deck for Week 2, which they went to Tuscaloosa and won. Spoiler alert, I think they win their Week 2 road game again this season.
Ultimately, I feel an improved Colorado State squad keeps this under five scores against a Texas team looking ahead to Michigan.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
