In the SEC, “it just means more,” and with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the conference and the expanded College Football Playoff, the conference should be more exciting than ever. Here are some of the best ways to attack the futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
SEC Football Betting Preview
It was an offseason of major change in the SEC. Texas and Oklahoma have joined the conference from the Big 12 and look to contend right away. Nick Saban, one of the faces of the sport, retired from Alabama. Also, the expanded 12-team playoff opens the door for three, four or maybe even five SEC teams to make the College Football Playoff this season. I will give my thoughts on each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
Georgia (+190 to win the SEC)
Georgia is once again the #1 team in the country in the preseason poll. Last year, they were arguably the best team in the nation again, but they were left out of the playoff after losing the SEC Championship Game to Alabama. This year, they don’t need to worry about losing just one game, as they would make the 12-team playoff in that situation. Carson Beck is back and poised to really break out as a passer this year. This team is once again loaded top-to-bottom.
Georgia’s schedule is tough. They no longer get to coast against the SEC East. They play Clemson to start the year and have to travel to Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas later in the season. That being said, Georgia will likely still be favored in all of those games. I wouldn’t be shocked if they dropped one game along the way, but at the end of the day, this is the best team in the country.
Georgia is just more complete against other top contenders in the country. Against Ohio State, Georgia has a major quarterback advantage. Against Texas or Ole Miss, Georgia is much more complete defensively. They also have championship experience that teams like Oregon lack. That is why I’m backing Georgia to win the National Championship.
Best Bet: Georgia to win National Championship (+300)
Texas (+320 to win the SEC)
Of last year’s four playoff teams, Texas is the only one to retain their quarterback and head coach. Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian are running it back but without many of last year’s stars. A big chunk of the Texas defensive line, along with its star WRs Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell, left for the NFL. Texas also suffered a massive blow when its star RB Jonathon Brooks suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago.
Texas is a really good team, and they should transition to the SEC pretty effectively. However, I just have their ceiling below the likes of Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon. Quinn Ewers still worries me in big games. He has shown signs of not being able to handle pressure and making panic throws in bad situations. Without Brooks, Ewers will have even more pressure on his shoulders in big games. Texas will likely be a playoff team, but I don’t expect them to make it to the semifinals.
Alabama (+500 to win the SEC)
It is a new era at Alabama. The legendary Nick Saban retired this offseason, and he was replaced by former Washington coach Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer has had a meteoric rise from coaching Division II football just 15 years ago to now leading one of the nation’s premier programs. DeBoer inherits a team that is ready to win right now, led by quarterback Jalen Milroe.
DeBoer has won everywhere he’s been, but this team could just be too in flux to compete this year. DeBoer was a great hire and should have had massive success in Alabama, but it could just take a year or two for him to get settled. Alabama has to play five of the top 16 teams in the country this season, and I have them dropping a couple of those games against opponents that they will be fighting with for a playoff spot. For that reason, I have them on the outside looking in for the inaugural 12-team playoff.
Ole Miss (+650 to win the SEC)
Few teams are as excited as Ole Miss that the playoffs have expanded to 12 teams. If they had a 12-team field, Ole Miss would have made two of the past three playoffs. Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels have really struggled against the likes of Georgia and Alabama, but they have risen to the top of that second tier of teams. This offseason, they brought back Jaxson Dart at quarterback and had one of the best transfer classes in the country.
Other than hosting Georgia, this is a relatively favorable schedule for Ole Miss. They should win at least ten games, which should be enough to get them into the College Football Playoff. Only time will tell if they have finally built a team that can match up with the elite of the college football world, but I have them making the postseason for the first time under Lane Kiffin.
Best Bet: Ole Miss to Make the Playoff (-130)
LSU (+1000 to win the SEC)
Last season, LSU had one of the best offenses in the country, led by Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. However, they also had one of the worst defenses in the country, which held them back from being a playoff team. Unfortunately, the offense is going to take a natural step back this season, and the defense did not improve enough.
Garrett Nussmeier will be the new QB1 in Baton Rouge, and he is capable of being another great LSU quarterback. However, the weapons he has to work with do not compare to the likes of Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., who were both first-round NFL draft picks this year. This defense will also still not be good enough to complete the grind of an SEC season and a really tough out-of-conference game against USC.
Texas A&M (+1400 to win the SEC)
The Aggies are a very intriguing team this year. From a talent perspective, they always have one of the best teams in the nation. However, Jimbo Fisher frankly failed this program by never taking them to a College Football Playoff. Luckily, Texas A&M nailed their hire this offseason by bringing back Mike Elko. Elko was formerly the defensive coordinator in College Station and transformed Duke into a winning program over the last several years.
Conner Weigman will be the starting QB for the Aggies. He has struggled with injury issues, but when he is healthy, he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the country. This team has one of the best front sevens in all of college football and should only improve with Elko on the sideline. This team has the potential for everything to click right away. They start off with a really tough non-conference game against Notre Dame, but overall, their schedule is pretty favorable, avoiding Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. They also get all of their toughest games at home against Notre Dame, LSU, Texas and Missouri.
If Weigman stays healthy, this team could immediately compete for the conference and a spot in the 12-team playoff. Their ceiling is actually high enough that it’s worth a small shot for them to win the National Championship. If everything clicks, they will have a top-5 defense in the country and a really good quarterback led by a great head coach.
Best Bets: Texas A&M to win the National Championship (45/1), Conner Weigman to win the Heisman (30/1)
Tennessee (+1500 to win the SEC)
The Volunteers are another team in the middle tier of the SEC. They are very capable of winning ten games, which would give them a good chance of making the College Football Playoff. Tennessee has one of the best players in college football, EDGE James Pearce Jr. They are also incredibly high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who has the potential to be a superstar and a future top NFL draft pick.
Tennessee also has one of the most favorable schedules in the SEC. They have two really tough games, vs. Alabama and at Georgia, but outside of that, they draw a lot of teams from the bottom of the conference. If they can sweep the board outside those two tough games, they will have a compelling case to make the postseason. I can also see a world where they pull off the upset against Alabama, so I am taking a chance on them to make the CFP.
Best Bet: Tennessee to Make the Playoff (+170)
Missouri (+1800 to win the SEC)
Missouri is a really interesting team this season. Eli Drinkwitz has done a great job with this program, but they are still behind some of the top teams when it comes to overall talent. The Tigers retained their quarterback, Brady Cook, and one of the best receivers in the nation, Luther Burden III. However, their defense could take a big step back this season without their former DC, Blake Baker, who left for LSU.
Missouri is another team with a favorable schedule, but I don’t think they’re good enough to hold up over a full season. I wouldn’t be shocked if they won ten games, but I have them outside the playoff field.
Oklahoma (+3000 to win the SEC)
It is going on Year 3 under Brent Venables at Oklahoma, and fans are ready for them to make the jump. It looked like last year could be that year after the upset win over Texas had them on track to win the Big 12 and even make the College Football Playoff. However, they lost two of their next three games after the Texas victory and didn’t even make the Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma arrives in the SEC with a loaded schedule but a really good team.
Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon and is the Heisman front-runner, but people in Norman will tell you that Gabriel would not have won the starting job over Jackson Arnold. Arnold is a sophomore who backed up Gabriel last season and even got the start in the bowl game. He has massive expectations of being the next Heisman-winning quarterback at Oklahoma, following in the footsteps of Jason White, Sam Bradford, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray.
Realistically, Oklahoma is a long shot to make the CFP despite being the #16 team in the country in the preseason AP poll. Jackson Arnold could be really good, but this is his first year as a starter, and the Oklahoma defense has struggled the last couple of years against lesser competition in the Big 12. On their schedule this year, they face Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss and Missouri. They would probably need to win three of those games to have a chance at the CFP, and I just can’t see that happening. This year should be about adjusting to the SEC and getting Arnold some experience, and then they can go for it next year.
Auburn (+6000 to win the SEC)
Hugh Freeze seems to be getting Auburn back to where it should be with some incredible recruiting. However, they are not quite there yet. Payton Thorne is expected to return as starting QB and he is just not good enough to lead this offense. The defense might actually be a step down from last year’s defense. This is also a ridiculous schedule, with road games in Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, and Kentucky. They also have to play Oklahoma and Texas A&M at home. I struggle to see how this team wins many games, but I would not be surprised if they pull off one big upset.
Kentucky (+10000 to win the SEC)
This Kentucky team could look much different than in past years. Old Kentucky football had a slow, run-heavy offense. This offseason, Bush Hamdan, formerly of Boise State, was hired as the new offensive coordinator, and he wants to play really fast offensively. The Wildcats also brought in quarterback Brock Vandagriff from Georgia, a highly-rated recruit with no experience. This should be a much higher-paced, pass-first offense.
The Wildcats have a pretty clear-cut schedule. They have some really easy games you expect them to win and some tough games you expect them to lose. Their four swing games against South Carolina, Louisville, Auburn and Florida will determine their season. Winning all four of those games would likely see them as an 8-win team, which would be a great season, or if they split those four games, they will at least make a bowl game. Winning less than six games and missing out on a bowl would make this a really disappointing season for Kentucky.
Florida (+12000 to win the SEC)
The Gators are one of the more fascinating teams in the country. Since Billy Napier arrived, the Gators have been pretty disappointing on the field. However, they have done a great job recruiting and getting guys from the transfer portal. This sets Napier up with his best roster ever. However, there are two big questions about this team. Is Graham Mertz good enough to win big games as Florida’s quarterback? Can they survive the hardest schedule in America?
To answer the first question, I do not believe in Graham Mertz. He played better than I thought last season, but he is not good enough to get this team to contend in the SEC. That is also partially due to the fact that this is the hardest schedule in the country. They face Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Texas and LSU in SEC play. That is six of the top seven teams in the conference. Out of conference, they play Miami, Florida State and UCF. Florida State may look a bit easier than it did a couple of weeks ago, but it still has a difficult OOC schedule.
It would be a miracle if Florida won six games and made a bowl game. With the schedule they face, this could be a solid team that still wins four games. Their Week One matchup against Miami is pivotal if they want to have a successful season and if Billy Napier wants to keep his job.
South Carolina (+12000 to win the SEC)
The Gamecocks are in a transitional year as Spencer Rattler left for the NFL this offseason. Rattler is replaced by sophomore quarterback La’Norris Sellers. Sellers is predominantly a running quarterback, which is why South Carolina brought in Robby Ashford from Auburn to back up Sellers as an additional running threat. Most importantly, South Carolina brought in RB Rocket Sanders from Arkansas. When healthy, Sanders is one of the best backs in college football and could make a formidable duo with Sellers.
This will likely be the best defense of the Shane Beamer era. DT Tonka Hemingway, LB Debo Williams, and S Nick Emmanwori make up an incredible spine, and there will be a lot of talent around them. During the Spencer Rattler era, this team wanted to beat you by throwing the ball a lot and beating you in a shootout. This Gamecock team will look to ground and pound offensively while punishing you defensively. If this team can stay healthy and Sellers performs well at the QB position, they should actually be better than last year’s team.
It is always a tough schedule for South Carolina, but they have four games they are expected to win, along with a few close SEC games. The Shane Beamer era has been defined by pulling off some major upsets against top-ranked teams, and this team is built to do so again this year. Also, games against Kentucky and Oklahoma are really winnable for this team. That is why I’m backing them to go over their win total of 5.5.
Best Bet: South Carolina o5.5 wins (-115)
Arkansas (+25000 to win the SEC)
The Razorbacks could be in trouble if things don’t go well this season. Sam Pittman is very much on the hot seat and even went to former Arkansas Head Coach Bobby Petrino to be the new offensive coordinator. Longtime starting QB KJ Jefferson transferred to UCF, and as mentioned above, star RB Rocket Sanders transferred to South Carolina. So this will be a new-look offense with Petrino calling plays and Boise State transfer Taylen Green playing QB.
This is another team at the bottom of the SEC whose schedule is just too difficult. They will likely only be favored in three or four games, and it’s hard to see this team making a bowl game.
Mississippi State (+40000 to win the SEC)
The Bulldogs have another ridiculously hard schedule, but they do get Florida and Arkansas at home. Those are two winnable conference games on their home turf. In addition to some easy non-conference games, Mississippi State could actually build some momentum this season. This is very much a transition year with Jeff Lebby taking over as head coach and Blake Shapen from Baylor transferring in to play quarterback.
Lebby is an offensive guru, most recently guiding Oklahoma and Ole Miss as OC. He wants to bring back the glory days of Mississippi State football, but they won’t be ready for that this season. The roster isn’t good enough, but it will be intriguing to see if they can win at least one of those conference games and build momentum towards next season.
Vanderbilt (+100000 to win the SEC)
Vanderbilt has no business being in the SEC. Over the past five seasons, they have won a combined three conference games. Clark Lea brought QB Diego Pavia from New Mexico State and a few New Mexico State staff members. Pavia and New Mexico State famously upset Auburn last year, so Vanderbilt hopes the magic will continue this season and they can grab an SEC win or two. However, they will be significant underdogs in every SEC game they play, and it is hard to see them winning more than three games this season.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
