The Houston Texans emerged as one of the most exciting young teams in the entire NFL last year. Led by reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud, Houston went 10-7 after winning 11 combined games in the three years prior.
Heading into year two of the Stroud era, the Texans are focused on taking another leap forward. They made a splash in the offseason by adding Stefon Diggs to an already loaded receiving core. After falling to the Ravens in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs, Houston will be looking to pave their path toward deeper playoff success.
The Texans are tied for the seventh-best odds to win it all at +1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have the fifth-best odds to win the AFC at +850, +105 odds to win the AFC South, and -190 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Texans’ season-long win total is 9.5 games, with the over favored at -140 odds.
Texans to win the AFC South (+105 Odds)
The Texans are the favorites to win the AFC South at +105 odds. Behind them are the Jaguars at +250 odds, the Colts at +340 odds, and the Titans at +1000.
When comparing season-long wins, the Texans are favored to win over 9.5 games at -140 odds. The Jaguars’ season-long total sits at 8.5 with the odds at -110 in both directions. The Colts also have their total at 8.5 games with the under favored at -115 odds. Tennessee holds a win total of just 6.5 games with the under favored at -135 odds.
Stroud is coming off one of the more impressive rookie seasons in recent years. The 22-year-old has operated as a polished veteran and will be looking to build off his first season. The Ohio State product threw for over 4000 yards, 23 touchdowns, and led the NFL in both yards per game and lowest interception rate.
Houston made it clear they intend on growing into legitimate postseason threats. The organization shelled out $244.3 million in guaranteed money this offseason, the 5th most in the entire NFL. This included adding at the skill positions with WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon, as well as investing in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball.
DeMeco Ryans will look to continue to grow in his second season as head coach. He has earned the trust of the locker room quickly and has made it a point in training camp for the team to block out distractions.
The bar is set high for the Texans, but they are the most trustworthy team in the division. Anthony Richardson’s health is a real concern for the Colts. The Jaguars have struggled to put together a consistent game plan and Trevor Lawrence has produced at an inconsistent level. There are plenty of questions about the Titans and it seems much more likely they will be in the race for a number one overall pick over a divisional race.
Count on the Texans to keep a good head on their shoulders and be focused from the opening week. There is too much talent on the roster for the team not to rise to the top and the +105 odds will only get steeper when the season starts.
C.J. Stroud Over 28.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 Odds)
As great as Stroud was last season, he did not stand out in his touchdown production. While the 23 he produced through the air were adequate, this number ranked 13th among quarterbacks.
This is the area where the next step forward should be expected. Houston is set to have one of the most dynamic offenses in the entire NFL with the trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell being right in the conversation for the best receiving group in the league. Diggs is coming off an eight-touchdown season and produced double-digit trips to the end zone in each of the two seasons prior.
Better offensive line play will also present a notable aid in reaching this number. Last year, Stroud got the ball out of his hands at the sixth-fastest rate of quarterbacks in the NFL. While he did not let a regular pass rush cause increased turnovers, having a few extra seconds to pick apart the defense could be the difference between him taking a huge step forward in touchdown production.
With another year to get comfortable with the offense and improved weapons around him, expect Stroud to be able to produce at least six additional touchdowns throughout the season.
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