It’s an odd day in the world of baseball. We’ve got a traditional day-night doubleheader taking place in Cleveland and we’ve got a suspended game situation in Boston that’s essentially also a doubleheader. Danny Jansen is going to play for both teams in that one. Look it up.
Anyway, let’s keep things simple in this space. We’re hunting winners on the diamond. Here are a couple of my favorite bets for this evening.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Look, I’m not going to sit here and try and convince you that Taillon is a strikeout artist. He’s not. In fact, his overall numbers are pretty bleak this season, as he enters tonight’s action with a 10th percentile whiff rate (20.0%) and a 23rd percentile strikeout rate (19.2%). Still, this prop is relatively low and the veteran RHP has been able to clear it in eight of his last 14 starts. He’ll also be facing the Pirates on Monday. That’s the biggest element to this wager.
Pittsburgh can not stop striking out. Since August 1, the Pirates own the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate at 26.8%. In that same span, Pittsburgh also possesses a league-leading 30.3% called and swinging strike rate. The team’s moves at the trade deadline have not helped this issue, either. Bryan De La Cruz, who ranks fifth on the Pirates in plate appearances in the month, has struck out in 32.5% of those 77 PAs. Woof.
Expect Taillon to work deep in this tilt and pick up five strikeouts through sheer attrition.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Nick Pivetta 6+ Strikeouts (+100)
This is actually a spot where I wouldn’t mind playing a ladder with Pivetta’s strikeout odds. It just feels like a night where the Canadian RHP could flirt with a double-digit strikeout total — something Pivetta has done in three of his last eight outings. While the 31-year-old has struggled with the long ball in recent starts, his ability to generate swings and misses remains elite. To wit, since the beginning of July, Pivetta owns an eye-popping 32.0% strikeout rate.
This is also a very different incarnation of the Blue Jays. Toronto posted the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate across the first three months of the season, but after selling several veterans at the deadline, a youth movement has taken hold within the organization. In August, the Jays have a far more league-average 22.1% strikeout rate, thanks primarily to the presence of Leo Jimenez (35.9%), Joey Loperfido (33.3%) and Addison Barger (28.6%) as every day lineup fixtures against right-handed pitching.
This is essentially Game 2 of a doubleheader at Fenway. Pivetta will likely be asked to help save the bullpen and throw 100 pitches regardless of result. With that kind of volume locked in, I think the strikeouts will come pouring in.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
